The 2008 Electoral College Road Map

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Read the latest article on the 2008 presidential contest.

September 2008

In early summer, the Crystal Ball took its first look at the likely November 4th Electoral College map. Our assessment was that, in the College at least, the contest appeared close. John McCain had 174 solid or likely electoral votes to Barack Obama's 200 solid or likely. The lead switched once we added in states that were "leaning" to one or the other: McCain had 227 votes to Obama's 212, with 270 needed for election. Fully 99 electoral votes in eight other states (CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI) remained in the toss-up category.

We based our map not just on current polling but also the recent historical record in presidential elections. Some shifts have occurred, so let's take a look at the mid-September map as a whole.

Solid -- No Real Chance for Upset

OBAMA - WA, CA, IL, MD, NY, VT, RI, MA, CT, NJ, DE, ME, DC, HI (183 electoral votes)

Comments: Nothing has changed for Obama in this category since mid-July. Obama gained no state he didn't already have by adding Joe Biden to his ticket. Delaware is solidly Democratic.

McCAIN - ID, UT, AZ, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, KY, WV, TN, AL, SC, MT, ND, GA, MS (163 electoral votes)

Comments: We have McCain gaining 30 electoral votes in this category since mid-July (AK, MT, ND, GA, MS). Sarah Palin has helped in her home state as well as the others. Had Obama chosen Sen. Evan Bayh of IN as his running-mate, we were prepared to move IN into the toss-up category. While some polls have suggested that McCain leads only narrowly there, we still believe it is unlikely that Obama will carry the Hoosier State in the end. Still, given its long border with Illinois, Indiana is going to be closer this year, and we have moved it out of the Solid McCain category and into the Likely McCain grouping.

Likely -- An Upset is Possible but Improbable

OBAMA - OR, MN (17 electoral votes)

Comments: Had McCain chosen Gov. Tim Pawlenty of MN as his running-mate, we were prepared to move MN to the toss-up category. But without Pawlenty, McCain is very unlikely to carry the state, despite a recent poll showing the state tied (right after the GOP Convention had been held in the Twin Cities). Similarly, McCain keeps making noises about Oregon but we see little Palin effect there, and Obama should be able to carry it.

McCAIN - IN (11 electoral votes)

Comments: All the states in this July category (AK, GA, MS, MT, and ND) have now firmed up for McCain. Remember that before Palin's nomination, some Alaska polls had Obama ahead in the state, or behind McCain in low single digits, but Palin will create a handsome victory for McCain. However, as we noted above, we have moved Indiana from Solid to Leaning McCain.

Leaning -- Currently Tilting to One Side but Reversible

OBAMA - IA, NM, WI (22 electoral votes)

Comments: Our guess still is that all three of these states end up in Obama's column. Wisconsin very narrowly voted for Gore and Kerry, but Obama has an excellent organization there. Public and private polls have Wisconsin close again, but Democrats get the edge here. Iowa and New Mexico voted for Bush in 2004. If only one of them switches to Obama this time, it will be Iowa, where McCain has always been weak. As a western state, New Mexico is at least open to voting for its Arizona neighbor. But Obama ought to be able to put New Mexico away, too.

McCAIN - FL, MO, NC (53 electoral votes)

Comments: McCain will have to work hard to hold these three usually Republican states. If he loses even one of them, he will be up against the Electoral College wall. His margin in MO is decent at present, and we expect him to carry the Show Me State. McCain ought to win NC, but he's not going to do it by anything like George W. Bush's double-digit margins. Reliable Tar Heel observers insist to us that the contest is surprisingly close, so we're not about to move NC into a firmer column for McCain yet. Of these three states, we wonder most about FL. Obama was weak there in the Democratic primary and McCain-tilting veterans and seniors are major forces in the state. Yet this mega-state is quirky, and as we learned in both 1996 (when it voted for Clinton) and 2000 (when...oh, you remember), the Sunshine State can reflect national trends quickly. If McCain is faltering in any one of these states in October, it will be an important signal about the likely election outcome. It is difficult to see McCain surviving the loss of a single one.

Toss-Ups -- The Real Deal

CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA (89 electoral votes)

Comments: A few of these states are Red or Blue tinged, though not enough for us to have any real confidence yet in a prediction. If you put a gun to our head--and we hope you won't, since that makes us very nervous--we would say Obama will end up carrying MI and PA. These states have such a strong Democratic base that, even with Obama's problems from the primaries, he ought to be able to secure them narrowly. On the other side, we now believe that McCain has a tiny edge in Virginia, despite a large number of new voter registrations that tilt strongly Democratic. Obama is not doing well enough in all of Northern Virginia to overcome strong resistance to his candidacy in more rural parts of the state, especially in the western quarter. This could change, and Obama is better organized in the Old Dominion than any Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. He has the strong support of Gov. Tim Kaine (D) and Senate nominee Mark Warner (D), who is a certain winner, possibly by a wide enough margin to help Obama.

We could argue the other states either way. Obama leads most Colorado polls, but that may be an afterglow of the Democratic Convention that will fade. Similarly, Obama appears to be ahead in New Hampshire, but after the Democratic primary there in January, what fool would believe Granite State polls? All reports suggest a big pick-up in Democratic registration in Nevada, but it's too early to move this one to Obama, given McCain's Arizona address.

Notice we haven't discussed Ohio. We aren't prepared to say that other states won't make the difference this year, but it's more than possible that, for a second straight election, the Buckeye State will essentially choose the next president. There are surveys putting the state in Obama's camp, and others saying it is McCain's. No one is going to call this one until they have to do it.