Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- “Medicare for All” has been a major issue in the Democratic primary race. But it also came up a lot in the 2018 cycle. -- A regression analysis comparing the performance of 2018 Democratic House candidates shows that those who supported Medicare for All...

Which Party’s Voters are More Divided?

Hint: It’s Not the One You Think

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- More Republicans identify as conservative than Democrats identify as liberal. -- This has led to questions about whether ideological fissures in the Democratic Party could make it harder for the party to rally around its eventual nominee. -- However, Democrats actually are more united...

Did Russian Interference Affect the 2016 Election Results?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s recent testimony was a reminder that Russia attempted to influence the outcome of the 2016 election and very well may try to do so again in 2020. -- This begs the question: Is there any evidence that Russian interference may...

Moderation in the Pursuit of Reelection May Not Help

Evidence from the 2018 House elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- District partisanship was by far the strongest determinant of the results of House elections in 2018, with Republican candidates typically running behind Donald Trump’s 2016 margins in all types of districts. -- Whether incumbents under- or over-performed was unrelated to ideology. Moderate Republicans actually...

The Very Stable House Generic Ballot

Outside of a high in December, the Democrats have held a lead of roughly six to eight points

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE -- On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year. The monthly average ranged from 6.2 points in February 2018 to 10.1 points in December 2017. The December result was clearly an outlier, however, and may have led to a...

Can Democrats Take Back the House in 2018?

2006 cycle suggests they could if they can expand the playing field

Democrats would appear to face long odds in the 2018 U.S. House elections. They need to pick up 24 seats to take back control of the House, and there are only 23 Republicans who hold districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016. In this politically-polarized era, presidential election results strongly...

Generic Ballot Forecasting Model: Democrats Could Take Back Senate but Republicans Likely to Hold House with Reduced Majority

Since the conclusion of the Republican and Democratic national conventions last month, pundits, political reporters, and ordinary Americans have, for understandable reasons, been preoccupied with developments in the presidential campaign. And the contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has certainly provided plenty of material for serious political observers as...