A Coronavirus Recession Could Doom Trump’s Reelection Chances

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity. -- Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall. -- A recession...

Democrats’ Dilemma: Ideology, Electability, and the 2020 Presidential Nomination in Iowa and the Nation

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic electorate has been getting more liberal, although at the same time, Democrats are not necessarily prioritizing ideology as they select a presidential nominee. -- Over time, both Democrats and Republicans have expressed increasingly negative views of the other party's presidential nominee. --...

Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- “Medicare for All” has been a major issue in the Democratic primary race. But it also came up a lot in the 2018 cycle. -- A regression analysis comparing the performance of 2018 Democratic House candidates shows that those who supported Medicare for All...

Which Party’s Voters are More Divided?

Hint: It’s Not the One You Think

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- More Republicans identify as conservative than Democrats identify as liberal. -- This has led to questions about whether ideological fissures in the Democratic Party could make it harder for the party to rally around its eventual nominee. -- However, Democrats actually are more united...

Did Russian Interference Affect the 2016 Election Results?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s recent testimony was a reminder that Russia attempted to influence the outcome of the 2016 election and very well may try to do so again in 2020. -- This begs the question: Is there any evidence that Russian interference may...

The 2020 Congressional Elections: A Very Early Forecast

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A forecasting model based on postwar electoral history along with the president's approval rating and the House generic ballot points to Democratic gains next fall. -- The model's projection won't be finalized until late next summer and will be based on whatever the president's...

Moderation in the Pursuit of Reelection May Not Help

Evidence from the 2018 House elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- District partisanship was by far the strongest determinant of the results of House elections in 2018, with Republican candidates typically running behind Donald Trump’s 2016 margins in all types of districts. -- Whether incumbents under- or over-performed was unrelated to ideology. Moderate Republicans actually...

The Very Stable House Generic Ballot

Outside of a high in December, the Democrats have held a lead of roughly six to eight points

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE -- On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year. The monthly average ranged from 6.2 points in February 2018 to 10.1 points in December 2017. The December result was clearly an outlier, however, and may have led to a...