Two Ways of Thinking about Election Predictions and What They Tell Us About 2018

There are differences in method, accuracy, and probability between quantitative forecasting and ratings-based handicapping

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two approaches to forecasting -- one formally statistical, one rigorous yet flexible handicapping -- produce different tools that we can use to evaluate the battle for control of the U.S. House in the 2018 midterms. -- The Crystal Ball and other political handicappers use...