Turnout in the 2020 Democratic Primary: Some Clues for the Fall

In the primary, blue-trending areas see higher turnout, power Joe Biden's strength; erosion for Democrats continues in some rural areas in the South

Dear Readers: Next Thursday (April 2) from noon to 1 p.m. eastern, the Crystal Ball will be hosting a briefing to assess the state of play in the 2020 election via Zoom. Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman will discuss...

The Electoral College: Maine and Nebraska’s Crucial Battleground Votes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Nationalization has pushed urban and rural areas apart; Maine and Nebraska are no exceptions to this trend, and their unique electoral vote allocation systems are highlighting that division. -- The Omaha-based NE-2 supported Republicans in the past two presidential elections, but by decreasing margins,...

Wisconsin: 2020’s Ground Zero

A closer look at the state that may once again decide the presidency; GOP narrowly favored in NJ-2 following Van Drew party switch

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A perpetual swing state, Wisconsin seems poised to play a pivotal role in next year’s presidential election. Milwaukee will be especially prominent as the host of the 2020 Democratic National Convention. -- With a special election in Wisconsin’s 7th District on the horizon, we...

Handicapping North Carolina’s New Districts

Democrats likely to net two seats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With a new congressional map in place, Democrats seem poised to flip two seats in the Tar Heel State, one in the Raleigh area and another in the Greensboro area. -- Since his election in 2014, Rep. Mark Walker (R, NC-6) has quickly climbed...

Shades of Alabama in Louisiana’s Gubernatorial Runoff

The similarities between the Deep South Democratic victories by John Bel Edwards and Doug Jones

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In his narrow reelection win on Saturday, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) replicated some of the voting patterns displayed in Sen. Doug Jones’ (D-AL) special election victory two years ago. -- Both Edwards and Jones won statewide races despite each carrying only a single...

In Close Runoff, Democrats Try to Finish Strong in Louisiana

And the presidential shades of Virginia’s state-level results last week

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In advance of Saturday’s runoff gubernatorial election in Louisiana, the data point to Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) as a small favorite. -- We’re moving our rating there from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, but even if Edwards holds on, it may not be by...

Louisiana Governor: Nationalized Trends Emerge as Runoff Looms

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As a result of Saturday’s jungle primary, the Crystal Ball has changed its rating for the Louisiana gubernatorial race to Toss-up from Leans Democratic. -- In a runoff against businessman Eddie Rispone (R), Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) must turn out more black voters...

Louisiana 2019: Welcome to the Jungle (Primary)

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) defied the partisan lean of his state in 2015, but he will have to navigate an increasingly partisan electorate to win again. He’ll need Republican support, but he also must energize black voters. -- Louisiana’s unique jungle primary has...

Republicans Hunt for Safer Ground in Shifting Southern California

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- San Diego County, once a linchpin of the GOP’s Golden State coalition, now votes reliably Democratic, like most other counties with large populations. -- It’s rare that former members of Congress switch districts to primary incumbents, but political realignment in San Diego has facilitated...

NC-9: West to the Left, East to the Right

Dear Readers: We are delighted to welcome the newest member of the Crystal Ball and Center for Politics team, J. Miles Coleman, who started working with us on Monday. Many readers may already be familiar with Miles’ work on Twitter, where he has built a following thanks to his wonderful...

2018 Senate: How the “Trump Ten” Races Compared to 2016

  Editor's Note: The Crystal Ball will be off next week for Thanksgiving. We wish all of our readers a safe and happy holiday. After the holiday, please make a note to watch our 20th Annual American Democracy Conference on the morning of Thursday, Nov. 29. The conference will feature...