Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016

Unified parties, lack of strong alternatives among reasons to suspect major party candidates will get a higher percentage of the vote than four years ago

Dear Readers: We wanted to let you know about two upcoming University of Virginia Center for Politics events. The Center for Politics in partnership with the UVA Parents Fund Committee and UVA Office of Engagement will present a live, online celebration this Saturday, May 16, beginning from 11:30 a.m. to...

The State of the States: The Governors

Vulnerable incumbents get a boost in the midst of crisis

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow as UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviews Time national political correspondent Molly Ball about her new book, Pelosi, an intimate, fresh perspective on the most powerful woman in American political history. The conversation will take place from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m....

The Senate: Looking Beyond the “Core Four”

Four races are set to decide the Senate, but they are not the only races that matter

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The focus on the evenly-matched battle for the Senate has in some ways narrowed to four GOP-held seats: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. -- Practically speaking, Democrats probably have to win all four, and the White House, to win the Senate. -- However,...

Wisconsin’s Supreme Court Race: Don’t Project it Forward to the Fall

Turnout dynamic likely to be bigger and different in the fall

Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m., Kyle Kondik (Managing Editor of the Crystal Ball) will moderate a panel of four experts, “Voting in the Midst of a Pandemic.” He will be joined by Lee Goodman, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission; Myrna Pérez, Director of the Brennan Center's Voting...

Democratic Voters Closing the Door on Sanders

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Tuesday night’s primary results generally showed Joe Biden running stronger versus Bernie Sanders than Hillary Clinton did against Sanders four years ago. -- Biden won every single county in Michigan, Mississippi, and Missouri, and he performed more than well enough out West. -- Biden’s...

Danger Signs Abound for Sanders in Michigan — and Elsewhere

He will have to beat the polls once again, but he may have benefited from an anti-Clinton vote not present this time

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Ahead of several delegate-rich contests this month, both national and state-level polls suggest that Joe Biden is solidifying his lead over Bernie Sanders. -- Though a handful of states will be voting tomorrow, Michigan, given its significance in the 2016 primary, will be a...

For Biden, a Stunning Super Tuesday

Former VP sweeps South and moves North; Sanders has to rally in Midwest to avoid being swamped

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- That Joe Biden swept the South was not that big of a surprise; that he won states outside of it was. -- The overall delegate math is unclear and may very well have ended up close on Super Tuesday, but Bernie Sanders needed to...

Biden’s Super Tuesday Test: Defending the South

Sanders vs. Biden may be determined by who breaks through on the other’s turf

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s victory in South Carolina re-established him as the main challenger to Bernie Sanders. -- There is some indication their battle could break on regional lines, with Sanders fighting for inroads in the South and Biden for access to the North. Biden’s task...

The Sanders Tax

How our Electoral College ratings might change
if he becomes the presumptive nominee

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If Democrats nominated Bernie Sanders, they would, initially, start off with somewhat of a penalty in our Electoral College ratings. -- Sanders’ policy prescriptions and rhetoric may complicate Democratic prospects in the Sun Belt, where the party’s recent growth has been driven by highly-educated...

Sanders and the Senate

Why his potential nomination makes some Democrats worry; the low-hanging fruit for both parties

Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Feb. 21), the University of Virginia Center for Politics will be hosting a conversation between former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato on the Grounds of UVA from 12:30 p.m. to 2 p.m. While registration for the event...

For Sanders, New Hampshire was a Glass Both Half-Full and Half-Empty

The battle is breaking in his favor, even as his own performance has not been that strong

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- There are mixed signals from Bernie Sanders’ narrow victory in New Hampshire, but for now he's supplanted Joe Biden as a weak frontrunner for the nomination. -- Overall, though, the race remains very uncertain as the scene shifts to the more diverse states of...

Election 2019: Another Win for Democrats in Virginia Pushes State Further off the Competitive Map

Bevin blows it in Kentucky; Mississippi remains out of reach for Democrats; mixed signals confirm larger trends

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virginia moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings in the wake of a fourth straight November that has broken in the Democrats’ favor. -- Gov. Matt Bevin’s (R) apparent loss in Kentucky is more of a personal repudiation of...

Election 2019 Mega-Preview: Political Conformity Seeks Further Confirmation

Looking ahead to next week’s elections in Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia; House ratings changes

Dear Readers: As Virginians go to the polls next week, we wanted to recognize the late Gov. Gerald Baliles (D-VA), who passed away earlier this week. Baliles served as Virginia governor from 1986-1990 and, more recently, as director of the University of Virginia’s Miller Center. For more on his life...