The Senate: Ranking the Top Dozen Best Targets

Establishment Republicans relieved by Kansas primary result; rating changes in Georgia and Iowa

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- National Republicans breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday night, as Rep. Roger Marshall (R, KS-1) beat 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) in the Kansas Senate primary. Practically speaking, the Kansas Senate race went from being a potentially major Democratic offensive target to...

House Rating Changes

Eight shifts, almost all benefiting Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing. -- At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall. -- There...

The Electoral College: The Fringe of the Map Expands

If Trump’s numbers don’t improve, some surprising states could come into play

Editor's Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We'll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half. -- With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight...

The Clock’s Ticking for Kanye

And anyone else who wants to make a late entry into the presidential race

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Kanye West tweeted over the weekend that he is running for president. -- He has already missed some state deadlines to file for president as an independent, and other deadlines loom. Presidential filing deadlines loom Rapper Kanye West tweeted the following over the weekend:...

The House: Democratic Murmurings in the Texas Suburbs – and Elsewhere

11 rating changes, most in favor of Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf. -- Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could...

The Electoral College: Trump’s Floodgates are Creaking

Florida, Pennsylvania shift toward Biden, but he’s still shy of the magic number 270 in our ratings

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making two Electoral College rating changes this week. -- Florida moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, and Pennsylvania moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. -- This means 268 electoral votes are rated as at least leaning to Joe Biden in our ratings;...

King Dethroned, and Other Notes from the June 2 primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep. Steve King’s (R, IA-4) primary loss makes his Republican-leaning seat easier for the GOP to defend. -- There weren’t many other surprises from Tuesday night. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating IA-4 Open (King, R) Likely Republican...

Trump-Pence: The Ticket That Seems (Almost) Certain for a 2020 Reprise

Dear Readers: Join us today at noon eastern for an online panel on the 2020 Veepstakes. Marquette University’s Julia Azari; the Washington Post’s David Byler; VP expert Joel Goldstein; and the Brennan Center’s Ted Johnson will discuss Joe Biden’s possible choices, the electoral importance of running mates, and more. The...

The Democrats’ House Polling Lead: Remarkably Steady

Generic ballot, money edge point to retained blue majority; seven rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency. -- Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help....

The Next Big Special Election: CA-25

Top-two primary results generally decent for Democrats, but a May special election held amidst uncertainty of the pandemic could give Republicans a chance to make up a little ground in California

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats netted seven House seats in California in 2018, winning 46 of the megastate’s 53 seats. -- The state’s top-two primary election system can provide clues for the fall. With results almost entirely complete, none of the newly-elected Democrats appear to be in serious...

Rating Changes: Electoral College and Senate

Democrats edge slightly ahead, but presidential race still a Toss-up; upper chamber battle gets closer; governors face what likely will be the biggest test of their tenures

Dear Readers: Please join Crystal Ball Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman for a livestreamed assessment of the 2020 landscape from noon to 1 p.m. eastern today. The livestream will be available at: https://livestream.com/tavco/sabatoscrystalball and is free. We previously were...

Getting Cartered

Like Jimmy Carter in 1980, Donald Trump has been dealt a challenging hand in his reelection year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump’s approval numbers have remained steady or have even improved in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. -- That said, the potential threat that the combined health and economic crisis poses to his reelection odds is obvious. -- Trump may find himself in...

The Iowa Chaos: A Preview of July?

Muddled, delayed, and confusing result could end up contributing to more of the same down the road

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As of this writing, days after Iowa, the ultimate outcome there was still unclear. -- Joe Biden’s poor showing probably forecloses the possibility of him winning the nomination quickly. -- The odds of a rare, contested convention probably went up, although there’s still time...

Trump Holds Key to Republican House Chances

GOP banks on nationalization; 16 ratings changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats remain favored to hold the House, but it’s not hard to imagine what the GOP’s path to the majority would be. -- Trump is crucial to that path: A highly-nationalized presidential election that devastates the roster of Democrats in Trump-won and marginal Clinton-won...