Dear Readers: In his book A More Perfect Constitution, Crystal Ball Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato laid out several proposals to modernize the Constitution. One of those was a suggestion about how to better format the presidential primary process, which has evolved over the course of the nation’s history...
Author: Larry J. Sabato
The End of the Beginning
Sic Transit the Transition
Tomorrow marks the start of the brave new world of President Donald J. Trump. But today marks the end of the Obama-to-Trump transition. They, and we, survived the interregnum, more or less -- and it was not guaranteed and is worth celebrating. Truly, has there ever been as dramatic a...
2017: AT THE DAWN OF THE AGE OF TRUMP
It’s already clear that the very strange political year of 2016 is bleeding over into the New Year. How could it be otherwise? President-elect Donald Trump, loved and hated by about equal numbers of Americans, continues to ignore or break with convention in a wide variety of areas. Just as...
AT THE BEGINNING: The Debates of 1960
There are a lot of ways to tell you’re getting old, and one is the realization that you have watched every presidential general election debate in U.S. history. The saving grace is that the history is short, with TV debates only beginning in 1960. And truth be told, I was...
THE 35TH SENATE SEAT ON THE BALLOT: VIRGINIA
Everyone is rightly focused on the 34 Senate seats already on the ballot this fall. But there is actually a 35th, the Class I Senate seat currently held by Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine. Of the four major-party candidates for national office, only one contender holds a position whose...
GOLDWATER AND TRUMP: NOT TWO PEAS IN A POD
Have you noticed all the comparisons on TV and in print between the Barry Goldwater campaign of 1964 and the Donald Trump campaign of 2016? It’s true both Goldwater was, and Trump is, the Republican nominee for president. And both could be fairly termed insurgent winners and highly controversial candidates....
HANGING TOUGH
Why we've made only minor changes to our Electoral College ratings since March
On March 31, we released our first general election map of the Electoral College. With our self-imposed rule of permitting no cop-out “toss-ups” -- a rule we’ll try to hold to as we handicap this year’s Electoral College map -- our bottom-line totals were 347 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton...
The Kennedy Conventions, Parts 2 and 3
JFK holds off LBJ in 1960, and then looms over his successor’s convention four years later
Dear readers: This is the second and third part of a three-part series on the 1956, 1960, and 1964 Democratic National Conventions, and John F. Kennedy’s role at each. Click here to read part one. -- The Editors Part II: Jack Kennedy’s 1960 Convention Triumph In 2016, some delegates in...
Kennedy’s Three Conventions, Part 1
Coming up second in the 1956 veepstakes
Dear readers: With the Clinton family seeking to cement itself as the Democratic dynasty of the present, this week during the Democratic National Convention we’re taking a look back at the Democratic dynasty of the past -- the Kennedys, and, specifically, John F. Kennedy. Center for Politics Director Larry J....
PROF. SABATO WELCOMES THE NATION’S NEWEST CITIZENS AT MONTICELLO
Dear Readers: Larry J. Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, will be the keynote speaker for the 54th annual Independence Day Celebration and Naturalization ceremony at Monticello, the home of Thomas Jefferson and a must-visit American treasure. This ceremony is the oldest continuous naturalization...
PRESIDENT 2016: THE LAZY, HAZY, CRAZY DAYS OF SUMMER POLITICS
As we find ourselves at the end of the primary season, we can all look back in wonder: What hath the voters wrought? Last summer when he announced a candidacy, almost no political professional picked Donald Trump to be the GOP nominee -- yet here he is. And no one...
Vice Presidential Selection: How Much Does It Matter This Year?
When a presidential campaign wants to signal that it is turning from the nomination clash to the general election, “sources close to the campaign” make it known the Veep search has begun. Right on schedule, as Donald Trump has become the Republican nominee-presumptive and Hillary Clinton has maintained an unassailable...
THE FALL OUTLOOK: FEAR AND LOATHING ON THE 2016 CAMPAIGN TRAIL
“The whole framework of the presidency is getting out of hand. It's come to the point where you almost can't run unless you can cause people to salivate and whip on each other with big sticks. You almost have to be a rock star to get the kind of fever...
Primaries versus caucuses: The score so far in 2016
Unfair! Rigged! Corrupt! We’re hearing a lot of harsh adjectives being applied to aspects of the presidential nominating system this year -- from “double-agent” delegate placement on the Republican side that may frustrate the plurality of GOP voters, to the establishment-based superdelegates (fully 15% of the convention, though down from...
The Ball of Confusion That Was 1968
Comparisons between that tumultuous year and 2016 abound
Given what has been unfolding in the 2016 campaign, this might be a good time for you to view, or view again, the UVA Center for Politics' latest documentary, Ball of Confusion. It aired on PBS stations across the nation several months ago, and now we have uploaded it to...