The Senate: Watch the Top of the Ticket

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Incumbent senators almost never lose reelection in presidential years when their party’s presidential candidate wins their state. -- Democrats need to net four seats to win an outright majority in the Senate and three seats to tie it. In the case of a Senate...

The 2016 Electoral College Map: A Template for 2020

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In 2016, Hillary Clinton would have needed to flip 38 additional Electoral College votes to reach 270[1], thereby winning a majority in the Electoral College. -- Using 2016 presidential election results, we can map out the different paths that Clinton had to winning 270...

Up-Ballot Effects: Expanding the Electoral College Battleground

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A presidential campaign strategy narrowly focused on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan might work for the Electoral College but could hurt a candidate’s party in down-ballot Senate and House races. -- Senate and House battlegrounds are scattered across the Rust Belt and Sun Belt, which...

The House’s Republican Bias: Does it Exist?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Single-member districts, natural sorting, and gerrymandering are the origins of bias in the House of Representatives. -- One form of bias consistently helps House Republicans, vindicating liberal concerns of a structural imbalance. Another form of bias reliably benefits the party that wins control of...