Trump-Pence: The Ticket That Seems (Almost) Certain for a 2020 Reprise

Dear Readers: Join us today at noon eastern for an online panel on the 2020 Veepstakes. Marquette University’s Julia Azari; the Washington Post’s David Byler; VP expert Joel Goldstein; and the Brennan Center’s Ted Johnson will discuss Joe Biden’s possible choices, the electoral importance of running mates, and more. The...

Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016

Unified parties, lack of strong alternatives among reasons to suspect major party candidates will get a higher percentage of the vote than four years ago

Dear Readers: We wanted to let you know about two upcoming University of Virginia Center for Politics events. The Center for Politics in partnership with the UVA Parents Fund Committee and UVA Office of Engagement will present a live, online celebration this Saturday, May 16, beginning from 11:30 a.m. to...

Wisconsin’s Supreme Court Race: Don’t Project it Forward to the Fall

Turnout dynamic likely to be bigger and different in the fall

Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m., Kyle Kondik (Managing Editor of the Crystal Ball) will moderate a panel of four experts, “Voting in the Midst of a Pandemic.” He will be joined by Lee Goodman, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission; Myrna Pérez, Director of the Brennan Center's Voting...

Trump Struggling to Match Job Approval in Polling

But data as a whole suggest race remains highly competitive

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- There is a substantial and persistent difference among pollsters’ findings with respect to Donald Trump’s job approval and his percentage against Joe Biden. -- Biden’s ability to consolidate the anti-Trump vote will be decisive. -- Trump’s statewide job approval is almost exactly what one...

Rating Changes: Electoral College and Senate

Democrats edge slightly ahead, but presidential race still a Toss-up; upper chamber battle gets closer; governors face what likely will be the biggest test of their tenures

Dear Readers: Please join Crystal Ball Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman for a livestreamed assessment of the 2020 landscape from noon to 1 p.m. eastern today. The livestream will be available at: https://livestream.com/tavco/sabatoscrystalball and is free. We previously were...

Getting Cartered

Like Jimmy Carter in 1980, Donald Trump has been dealt a challenging hand in his reelection year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump’s approval numbers have remained steady or have even improved in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. -- That said, the potential threat that the combined health and economic crisis poses to his reelection odds is obvious. -- Trump may find himself in...

Turnout in the 2020 Democratic Primary: Some Clues for the Fall

In the primary, blue-trending areas see higher turnout, power Joe Biden's strength; erosion for Democrats continues in some rural areas in the South

Dear Readers: Next Thursday (April 2) from noon to 1 p.m. eastern, the Crystal Ball will be hosting a briefing to assess the state of play in the 2020 election via Zoom. Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman will discuss...

The Cleaner “Smoke-Filled Room”

Dear Readers: We're pleased to welcome Gerald Pomper as a Crystal Ball contributor this week. Pomper is a widely-published and respected political scientist. In this piece, he explores how the Democratic Party's consolidation around Joe Biden is somewhat reminiscent of the old, insider-dominated method of selecting presidential nominees. Pomper is...

Democratic Delegate Count Update

The Crystal Ball and Decision Desk HQ have been calculating and tracking the Democratic pledged delegate allocations during the presidential primary season. Georgia’s presidential primary was originally scheduled for Tuesday but has been moved to May 19. That means there will be no new delegates up for grabs until Hawaii’s...

A Coronavirus Recession Could Doom Trump’s Reelection Chances

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity. -- Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall. -- A recession...

Democratic Voters Closing the Door on Sanders

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Tuesday night’s primary results generally showed Joe Biden running stronger versus Bernie Sanders than Hillary Clinton did against Sanders four years ago. -- Biden won every single county in Michigan, Mississippi, and Missouri, and he performed more than well enough out West. -- Biden’s...