Notes on the State of Politics

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic primary race has been very stable, with the biggest exception being Elizabeth Warren’s rise to become one of the clear frontrunners. -- Donald Trump is attracting primary challengers, but his standing within the GOP remains strong. -- Sen. Johnny Isakson's (R-GA) pending...

Democrats hope for a nationalized Virginia election this fall

Richmond chaos could threaten state legislative takeover but big-picture trends still favor team blue

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The crisis in Richmond involving the state’s top elected Democrats continues, and the ultimate resolution remains unclear. -- Democrats will be trying to win the state House and Senate this November. The election will provide a good test of what really matters: local or...

Cruz, Schiff highlight Center for Politics’ 20th annual American Democracy Conference

Thursday morning conference in Washington will be available via livestream

Today from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m., the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 20th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington D.C. The conference will feature Rep. Adam Schiff (D, CA-28), the likely next chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who just won...

The State Legislatures: More than 6,000 down-ballot races to determine control of states

Democrats poised to pick up seats and chambers but huge existing GOP majorities may help the Republicans maintain power in many places

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- More than four of every five of the nation’s state legislative seats will be on the ballot this year. -- The usual midterm presidential penalty extends to state legislative seats, where the presidential party loses an average of more than 400 state legislative seats...

Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs partner to release new midterm election forecasting tools

Briefing will discuss outlook for the 2018 midterm and unveil new forecasting site

The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos invite members of the media to the launch of their new 2018 Political Atlas -- an interactive tool providing unique data on the 2018 midterm elections -- at the National Press Club, Tuesday, August 28, 10-11 a.m. Larry J. Sabato, Founder...

Ratings Upgrades for Democrats in Ohio

Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate and gubernatorial ratings changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Sherrod Brown (D-OH) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Governor Old Rating New Rating OH Open (Kasich, R) Leans Republican Toss-up A confluence of recent polls and reporting suggests that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is not really among...

Ratings Changes and Some “Special” Updates

Tweaks to Senate, gubernatorial, and House races

As the White House lurches from one self-inflicted crisis to the next -- “chaos is the new normal,” as the Columbia Journalism Review put it in a Tuesday morning headline -- Senate Republicans have to be worried that President Donald Trump’s difficulties will imperil their opportunity to make gains next...

Why Ohio Picks the President

A preview of Kyle Kondik's new book on Ohio, The Bellwether

Dear Readers: This essay is adapted from Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik's new book, The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President, which is now available. As the nation turns its eyes to Cleveland next week, Kondik explains why his home state is seemingly always a reflection of national presidential...

Who Will Win the Nominations? Lessons from Iowa and New Hampshire

The American presidential nomination process gives enormous influence to two small and, in many ways, highly unrepresentative states: Iowa and New Hampshire. Not only are Iowa and New Hampshire sparsely populated states without any major metropolitan areas -- Des Moines is the 89th largest metro area in the U.S. and...

“Bombs Away” Tackles LBJ, Goldwater and 1964 Election

Ushered in age of negative campaign ads, highlighted by “Daisy” spot

Marking the 50th anniversary of the groundbreaking 1964 presidential campaign, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations have released the first trailer for their latest documentary, Bombs Away: LBJ, Goldwater and the 1964 Campaign that Changed It All. Scheduled for nationwide and international release later this...

Politico, Crystal Ball announce new partnership

The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Politico are pleased to announce an exclusive media partnership to offer readers interactive ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. The new feature on Politico’s website shows which way the Center believes a race is leaning each week...

Notes on the State of Politics

Some short takes on what's going on in the world of politics: Ponzi scheme comments might not hurt Perry… in primaries During the Tea Party debate last week, Mitt Romney harshly criticized Gov. Rick Perry for his description of Social Security as a "Ponzi scheme." Romney went so far as...