The Old College Try

With less than 18 months to go before Election Day 2004, what does the Electoral College picture look like? Wait, you say. How could even the Crystal Ball pretend to have a fix on electoral votes this far out? The answer is simple: Because of the polarization of the Red...

The Home State Hurdle

As 2004 approaches, Democrats have plenty of factors to consider as they choose a nominee to take on President Bush. Surely, one of these is to avoid repeating the most embarrassing aspect of election night 2000. No, not the razor-thin loss in Florida, but Al Gore's solid defeat in his...

Review of War and Post World War II Presidents

Year President War Political Effect 1950 Truman Korea The unpopularity of this war, including Truman's firing of Gen. MacArthur, contributed to Truman's not seeking a second full elective term in 1952. 1952 Eisenhower Korea "I will go to Korea," said Eisenhower during the '52 campaign, and the natural public confidence...

War! Good God Y’all, What’s it Good For?

Now that the war phase of the Iraq operation is winding down, it's time for the Crystal Ball to return and assess the damage. Not damage on the ground, but the damage – or the boost – to various presidential candidates' chances.First, the DEMOCRATS. Let's remember how the last successful...

Third Year Testing

Julius Caesar was warned: "Beware the Ides of March." Our modern presidents should be warned: "Beware the third year." Why, that's the presidential year George W. Bush has just begun! The third year is among the times that try presidents' souls. Take a look at our new analysis of the...

Eve of the State of the Union

SOTU - as in "so to sum up my presidency"

After a post-election hiatus, we officially re-launch Sabatos Crystal Ball as the political planets align. The New Hampshire primary is exactly one year from today , and the 2005 presidential inauguration is just less than two years away. The Crystal Ball has been given a complete overhaul, making our critically...

Huckabee-Clinton Test Chart

Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee are not only the most famous natives of Hope, Arkansas, but they have made similar climbs up the state's political ladder. Each lost their first bid for public office and each served multiple terms as governor before making their first run for president. An asterisk...