The Electoral College: Trump’s Floodgates are Creaking

Florida, Pennsylvania shift toward Biden, but he’s still shy of the magic number 270 in our ratings

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making two Electoral College rating changes this week. -- Florida moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, and Pennsylvania moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. -- This means 268 electoral votes are rated as at least leaning to Joe Biden in our ratings;...

Our Revamped VP Rankings

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice enter our list of Joe Biden's vice presidential contenders. -- Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) drops off. -- The top names remain the same. Biden’s VP contenders Our friend, top vice presidential scholar...

The Biden VP Calculus

The choice matters; more than one factor will go into it; and it's too soon to predict the pick

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As Joe Biden zeroes in on his VP options, there are some myths about the choice that are worth exploring. -- The pick does in fact matter, or at least it has historically, and whoever is chosen won’t be picked for just one reason,...

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020

Biden’s lead has been similar to Clinton’s, but it has been more stable

Editor's Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We'll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton...

VA-5: Riggleman Loss Opens Door to a Competitive Race

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep. Denver Riggleman (R, VA-5) lost a bizarre, drive-through convention held over the weekend. -- We moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican as a result. Table 1: House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating VA-5 Open (Riggleman, R) Likely Republican...

Notes on the State of Politics

VP omissions; recapping Tuesday’s primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) seems to be rising in the Biden veepstakes. -- Late Wednesday, Jon Ossoff (D) apparently captured the Democratic nomination to face Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), thus avoiding a runoff. -- Primaries in South Carolina and West Virginia saw...

Landslide Elections and Policy Mandates

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Election landslides can sometimes look like policy mandates for the winners. -- But landslides have become rare in presidential elections since 1960. -- The legitimacy of U.S. elections might benefit from a new landslide in 2020. Could 2020 be a landslide? As we approach...

Kansas Senate: Room for an Upset?

The key areas for Democrats may not be where you would expect

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Demographic changes in Kansas have caused the state to trend leftwards, as Republicans’ hold on the state’s metro areas has waned. -- It remains to be seen whether these trends have moved the state into a position where Democratic candidates can be competitive at...

The Veepstakes: Handicapping Biden’s Choices

Harris, Demings leads our list of contenders; Biden is wise to wait on making his pick

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden should not be in a rush to name his vice presidential pick. Circumstances may change his list of contenders -- and probably already have. -- A predictable name leads our list, but a not-so predictable name is second. -- Biden has many...

King Dethroned, and Other Notes from the June 2 primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep. Steve King’s (R, IA-4) primary loss makes his Republican-leaning seat easier for the GOP to defend. -- There weren’t many other surprises from Tuesday night. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating IA-4 Open (King, R) Likely Republican...

Republican Presidential Primary Turnout: Trump vs Bush

With higher turnout, 2020's primary electorate looks familiar

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Compared to 2004, another year that featured a Republican president in a lightly-contested primary and a contested Democratic primary race, turnout has been up across the board. -- 63% of the votes cast in this year’s primaries have been on the Democratic side, which,...

Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. -- The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results. -- This suggests that pollsters have...

Trump-Pence: The Ticket That Seems (Almost) Certain for a 2020 Reprise

Dear Readers: Join us today at noon eastern for an online panel on the 2020 Veepstakes. Marquette University’s Julia Azari; the Washington Post’s David Byler; VP expert Joel Goldstein; and the Brennan Center’s Ted Johnson will discuss Joe Biden’s possible choices, the electoral importance of running mates, and more. The...

Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016

Unified parties, lack of strong alternatives among reasons to suspect major party candidates will get a higher percentage of the vote than four years ago

Dear Readers: We wanted to let you know about two upcoming University of Virginia Center for Politics events. The Center for Politics in partnership with the UVA Parents Fund Committee and UVA Office of Engagement will present a live, online celebration this Saturday, May 16, beginning from 11:30 a.m. to...