Sabato’s Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Potentially weak major party nominees paired with a long list of third party candidates could lead to a higher-than-usual level of third party voting in 2024. — Recent third party performance has generally been strongest in western states and weakest in the South. — The states that are most likely to decide the 2024 election have not had high average third party voting this century. Where voters are most open to third party presidential candidates We feel very confident in saying that the next president will be a Democrat or a Republican (I know what you’re thinking — the Crystal Ball sure is going out on a limb here!) But we start with this blindingly obvious statement as we consider that the list of third party candidates may be long in 2024. Most recently, and most notably, vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. switched from the Democratic primary to making an independent bid, and early polls have shown him getting considerable support (more on that momentarily). In addition to RFK Jr., left-wing intellectual Cornel West is also running, most recently deciding to run as a true independent instead of seeking the Green Party nomination.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — History suggests that whoever wins the Republican presidential nomination is unlikely to choose one of their rivals for the nomination as his or her running mate. — This has happened on occasion in the recent past — including Joe Biden selecting Kamala Harris as his running mate in 2020 — but it is very uncommon, especially on the Republican side. — Running mates in recent times often, though not always, have not run for president before. They often are not from the ranks of those who were early endorsers of the eventual nominee. Moreover, in modern times they have always been past or present officeholders. Lessons from history on VP selection When pundits run short of things to say about presidential nominating races, they often turn to the choice of the vice presidential running mate. This cycle, an unusual amount of early speculation is already occurring about the Republican vice presidential choice as some, perhaps prematurely, view the presidential nominee as apparent. The past is not always prologue regarding vice presidential selection because each new cycle presents different circumstances and a presidential nominee who has never, or perhaps only once, chosen a running mate,

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite weak overall favorability, Joe Biden and Donald Trump could combine for the strongest presidential nominating performance in modern history. — Since the advent of the current nominating system in each party, which dates to the early 1970s, at least one of the two eventual major party nominees suffered at least some losses during the primary season. — It is possible that Biden and Trump could both sweep every contest next year. — Several nominating seasons came close to producing such a sweep, particularly in the 1996-2004 range. The possibility of a Biden/Trump sweep There is no shortage of evidence suggesting the general election weakness of the two frontrunners for the major party presidential nominations, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. They have very similar, and low, favorability. According to the RealClearPolitics averages, Biden’s favorability is 41% favorable and 55% unfavorable. Trump’s is a similar 40%/56% split. That is comparable to the weak favorability of Trump and his opponent, Hillary Clinton, on the eve of the 2016 election: The same average pegged Trump’s split at 38%/59%, with Clinton a bit better at 42%/54%. The 2016 election was widely regarded as featuring the

Dear Readers: We will be reacting to Wednesday night’s second Republican presidential primary debate on the “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Like so many other female politicians, Nikki Haley faces a “woman problem” and must combat sexist rhetoric that is prevalent in politics and has been since Victoria C. Woodhull became the first woman to run for president in 1872. — Campaigns and elections are more challenging for women than men due to structural disadvantages, including media coverage of candidates, public opinion, and stereotypes. — Women are more pessimistic than men about the prospects for a female president. Fewer women than men think many Americans are ready to elect a woman to higher office even though more women than men personally hope that a woman will become president in their lifetime. The challenges for women running for president Like so many other female politicians, Nikki Haley faces a “woman problem.” Despite Haley’s political experience as governor of South Carolina and Ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump Administration, she was not taken seriously as a candidate until the first

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020. — The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap. — While there is nearly a 40-point difference between the top and bottom halves, the gap did not grow from 2016-2020. Top vs. bottom halves, 1996-2020 Among the many things that stand out from a longer-term look at how the nation’s biggest counties vote versus the rest of the country is this: The George W. Bush realignment of 2000 was comparable to the Donald Trump realignment of 2016 in widening the gap between the nation’s two halves. As part of our ongoing series in comparing the “top halves” to the “bottom halves” of both the nation and individual states, we decided to expand our look at the nation to encompass not just the changes between 2012 and 2020 — which we did in Part One of this series — but also the trajectory of the last quarter century, from Bill Clinton’s second victory in 1996 to Joe Biden’s win in 2020. As a reminder, what we are doing

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Negative partisanship — the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the other side — has become a powerful force in American politics. — This dynamic makes it harder for partisans to cross over to the other side and keeps general elections quite competitive. — Attacks on Donald Trump by Democrats, liberals, and mainstream media figures and even indictments by federal and state prosecutors on serious criminal charges have only served to reinforce the loyalty of Republican voters to Trump. Negative partisanship buoys Trump Less than six months before voters begin casting ballots in the first presidential caucuses and primaries, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the field of Republican candidates. According to RealClearPolitics as of Aug. 22, Trump is receiving an average of 55.9% support in national polls of Republican voters compared with 14.6% for his nearest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Moreover, Trump’s margin over DeSantis has increased in recent months following indictments in multiple jurisdictions for allegedly criminal conduct including his notorious efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. What is perhaps even more surprising than Trump’s domination of the Republican nomination contest is his