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Sabato and Crystal Ball Team Offer Analysis to University Students, Staff, Faculty and Charlottesville Community
(CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va.) - On Tuesday night, Professor Larry Sabato peered deep into his renowned Crystal Ball to examine the landscape of the 2012 election. But Sabato, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics and director of the University's Center for Politics, made it clear that it's much too early to make any concrete predictions.
"You can flip a coin," said Sabato, "and have as good a chance of knowing the outcome as we do right now."
The packed auditorium in Wilson Hall listened as Sabato laid out the strengths and weaknesses of President Barack Obama and his presumptive Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. He also discussed the unknowns that could greatly influence the outcome of the presidential election, such as an economic surge or another recession, or, in the realm of foreign policy, a conflict with Iran.
Examining the current state of the Electoral College, Sabato declared that there are "seven super swing states" that will decide the election. Among those key states is Virginia. Sabato told his audience to expect to be right in the middle of the presidential contest.
"After Labor Day, you won't able to turn on the TV without seeing an attack ad," the political pundit predicted.
Sabato and his Crystal Ball team also discussed the congressional races, saying that the Republicans would likely hold on to the House of Representatives while the Senate would be a closely fought battle, with a 50-50 outcome being a real possibility.
One of the most competitive Senate contests will be in Virginia, where former Governor Tim Kaine (D) hopes to stop former Senator (and U.Va. alumnus) George Allen (R) from recapturing his old seat. The Crystal Ball team highlighted that the most important factor in the race would probably be the "coattails effect," meaning that the party that wins the Old Dominion in the presidential race will very likely claim the state's Senate seat as well.
The program gave Sabato a chance to reiterate his motto that "Politics is a good thing." Sabato founded the Center for Politics in 1998 to promote the value of politics, improve civics education and increase civic participation through comprehensive research, pragmatic analysis and innovative educational programs. Tuesday night's presentation served as an opportunity to increase awareness about the specific issues and topics that will dominate the 2012 campaign season.
Center for Politics to Host South American Students as Part of Global Perspectives on Democracy Program
(CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va.)—Students from Argentina and Chile will arrive at the University of Virginia Center for Politics on Saturday, March 24 to begin a week-long program focused on youth leadership training and civic engagement.
During their stay, the program’s 30 students and four teachers will participate in a number of educational events and programs in the surrounding area.
Members of the media interested in this program are welcome to attend any of the following events:- Visit to Monticello; Monday, March 26, 2:15 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.
- Seminar with Professor Larry J. Sabato on American politics, Tuesday, March 27, 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m., Jefferson Hall at the University of Virginia.
- Visit to Monticello High School to meet with student leaders and compare school experiences, Wednesday, March 28, noon to 2:30 p.m.
- Speech by Arun Chaudhary, former White House Videographer, Wednesday, March 28, 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. Rotunda Dome Room at the University of Virginia.
The student visit is part of the Center’s Global Perspectives on Democracy (GPD) outreach effort and was organized in cooperation with World Learning and the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs. This is the first high school group the Center has hosted as a part of its GPD program; it is the opening exchange of a two-year project that will bring two delegations from Argentina and Chile and another two from Bolivia and Peru to conclude in fall 2013.
Following their stay in Charlottesville from March 24 through March 30, the students will depart for two-week home stays in Portland, Dallas and Kansas City.
Center for Politics' Youth Leadership Initiative Holds Super Tuesday Mock Election
(CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va.) — The University of Virginia Center for Politics' Youth Leadership Initiative (YLI) held its first-ever Super Student Day Mock Election leading up to the 2012 Super Tuesday primaries. Students from across the nation participated, contributing their opinions and voices before registered voters went to the polls on Super Tuesday.
Mock election polls opened on Thursday, March 1 and remained open though 7 p.m. Eastern time on March 5. The YLI Super Student Day Mock Election ballot included the Republican candidate for president, a race between the eventual Republican candidate and President Obama, a political ideology survey, a political party survey and an issues referendum. As in past years, teachers had the ability to customize ballots to meet the unique needs of their students.
The mock election is an excellent example of an activity that encourages lifelong civic engagement. "I get to have my first say in the world, and it all started in the classroom," said YLI student Dorothy Joyner on beginning her voting career with YLI's Super Student Day Mock Election. Her teacher, Hal Hankins of Albemarle High School, is one of the 50,000 registered YLI teachers with the ability to participate in the simulation.
Students from 37 states participated in the YLI Super Student Day Mock Election.
The youth voters' top Republican presidential pick was Mitt Romney, who took 28.7% of the vote. As for the general election, 42.5% of students said that they would vote for the Republican candidate while 40.4% said they would support President Obama.
The YLI Super Student Day Mock Election is not an accurate predictor of the general election outcome, nor is it a scientific poll, and it should be evaluated only as an educational tool for students. More than 9,200 students participated in this prototype mock primary election.
YLI will hold its National Mock Election in October during the lead-up to the 2012 national elections.
Center for Politics Goes Inside the 2012 Elections
(CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va.) — As the Republican presidential race heads to a slate of potentially decisive contests on Super Tuesday the first week of March, the University of Virginia Center for Politics has gathered a group of top political experts to make sense of the political season ahead.
"Inside the 2012 Elections," which will be held Wednesday, Feb. 29 at 6 p.m. in the Rotunda Dome Room, will examine the race for the Republican presidential nomination, President Obama's reelection chances and the battle for control of Congress. The panel of experts from both sides of the aisle will feature:
• Fred Barnes, executive editor of the Weekly Standard
• Glen Bolger, partner at Public Opinion Strategies
• Major Garrett, the White House correspondent for National Journal
• John Lapp, partner at Ralston Lapp Media
• Mark Mellman, CEO of the Mellman Group
• Leslie Sanchez, CEO of the Impacto Group
Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the panel.
Center for Politics Delegation Returns from Afghanistan
(CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va.) – After hosting two visiting delegations of Afghan women from high levels of government and civil society last summer, staffers from the University of Virginia Center for Politics traveled to Kabul where they reunited with the Afghan delegates of the U.S.-Afghanistan Professional Partnership Program exchange.
While attending the Center's program in Charlottesville, the delegates learned about the foundational principles of American democracy and civic engagement in a democratic society and participated in job shadowing opportunities throughout the city. The return portion of the exchange was organized by Relief International and sponsored by the U.S. Department of State Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs. While in Kabul, Irby and Heubeck met with government officials involved in women's affairs, the justice system and nonprofit organizations that focus on women and children's issues and civic engagement.
"While Afghanistan obviously has major hurdles to clear, there is a passion among many in the country for establishing a greater level of freedom and stability. In the U.S., the tragedies are what make the news, but significant progress is being made," Irby said.
"What will be integral to Afghanistan's future will be to develop a culture of civic engagement where citizens plan an active role in day-to-day decision making both in their communities and in the nation as a whole. They are taking the first steps to make that happen," Heubeck said.
Read an opinion piece published about this mission in the Richmond Times-Dispatch. The Center for Politics will host two additional Afghan delegations this spring.
YLI to host Super Student Day Mock Election!
The Youth Leadership Initiative (YLI) is proud to announce that it is holding the first National Super Student Day Mock Election from March 1st through March 5th, 2012. All registered YLI teachers will be able to engage their students by allowing them to weigh in on the GOP Presidential primary. The event is planned to coordinate with Super Tuesday on March 6th in which ten states will hold primaries to determine the Republican candidate for president in 2012.
As this is a new program, YLI is offering a standard ballot for all states. The ballot will contain:
+ Race for GOP Presidential Candidate
+ Race between a possible GOP Candidate and President Obama
+ Survey on political ideology
+ Survey on issues important to the 2012 elections
Teachers have the opportunity to customize their ballot and the program is supported by online lesson plans, downloadable resources such as teacher and student instructions, and classroom lesson plans. All materials and programming are available FREE of charge to teachers registered with YLI. To register with YLI visit www.youthleadership.net
Educators already registered with YLI need only to login at www.youthleadership.net and click the Mock Election link from the Welcome page. The Getting Started tab will have all of the resources necessary to make voting in the National Super Student Day Mock Election a success.
YLI hopes this first National Super Student Day Mock Election will increase student interest in the election and engage students in American democracy. Have questions? Call toll-free 1.866.514.8389 or email ylihelp@virginia.edu for more information.
Get in the game with YLI's National Super Student Day Mock Election!
Director Larry Sabato to Match Gifts to the U.Va. Center for Politics
(CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va.) – University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato has pledged to personally match gifts to the Center in an effort to raise $500,000 between now and December 31, 2011.
Sabato, the Robert Kent Gooch and University Professor of Politics, will match 100% of every contribution to the Center until the end of the year to reach the fundraising goal, for a maximum donation of $250,000.
The Center encourages donations of any amount, and reminds those whose companies provide charitable contribution matches that those gifts will have three times the power to improve the civic life of our nation.
Money raised will support the Center's many programs and initiatives, including the Youth Leadership Initiative, which provides civics education to students in all 50 states, and Global Perspectives on Democracy, which fosters citizen-to-citizen dialogue among the United States and other democratic societies around the world.
Former Sri Lankan President to Speak at University of Virginia Rotunda
(CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va.) – As a part of its Global Perspective on Democracy program, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host former Sri Lankan President Chandrika Badaranaike Kumaratunga on Monday, Nov. 14, from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. in the Rotunda Dome Room.
As Sri Lanka's president from 1994 to 2005, Kumaratunga led the island nation through a trying period of civil war. The 26-year-long conflict between the government and Tamil Tiger rebels only concluded in 2009, marking the beginning of a new era for the nation. As the country moves forward, questions remain about pluralism, civic engagement and reconciliation in the aftermath of the civil war.
Registration for the event is now full, but members of the media interested in covering the event are welcome to attend.
The Center for Politics' Global Perspectives on Democracy (GPD) program is aimed promoting the exchange of democratic ideas and improvement of civic engagement, citizen participation and civil discourse around the world.
The visit by President Kumaratunga follows a series of official exchanges between the Center for Politics and Sri Lanka. In 2009, the Center hosted a visiting delegation of 18 young professionals from Sri Lanka who participated in a three-week internship program organized in partnership with Relief International and funded by the U.S. Department of State. As a reciprocal part of that program, Center representatives then traveled to Sri Lanka to conduct workshops on civic engagement, federalism, and new media applications. In June 2010 a second delegation from Sri Lanka spent four weeks learning about new media journalism, freedom of the press, pluralism, and civic engagement.