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New York (Open Seat)

Outlook: Solid Democratic

June 1, 2006 Update:

It’s going to be an even more massive landslide for Eliot Spitzer than observers had earlier believed. It is no longer a question of whether he will top 60 percent, but how much further he will go. It doesn’t matter much whether the GOP nominee is John Faso or Bill Weld, the result will be the same. Republicans are badly split, and their time is up in the Empire State for now.

March 27, 2006 Update:

Start getting used to saying “Governor Eliot Spitzer,” even though he still has a primary challenge from Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi. Spitzer is all but certain to be the Democratic nominee, and equally certain to be the next governor of the Empire State; a big Democratic year is building in New York.


Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld recognized the obvious–that he was not going to get the GOP nomination–and he has withdrawn in favor of former state assembly minority leader John Faso. It really doesn’t matter; Faso will be defeated in a landslide by Democratic nominee and current Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. The current betting is that Spitzer will easily top 60 pecrent of the vote.


The twelve-year reign of the Cuomo-killer, Republican Governor George Pataki, is now coming to a close. Even had Pataki decided to run for a fourth term, he was likely to lose, as he has fallen into a deep pit of unpopularity.

Democrats will almost certainly nominate state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, the Slayer of Wall Street Greed (or so the image suggests). Additionally, New York has become among the bluest of the Democratic Blue states. Democratic Governor Mario Cuomo served three terms, and so has Pataki. Time’s up. We’ll bet on a Spitzer victory.

The Republicans are in terrible shape in New York and they appear unlikely to nominate New York Secretary of State Randy Daniels, an African American Republican, who would like the nomination. One prominent Republican who has stepped forward is former Massachusetts Governor William Weld, however, we wonder whether Empire State pride would permit a Bay State retread to get its top job. Sam Houston did it in the nineteenth century, governing (at different times) both Tennessee and Texas, but Bill Weld doesn’t strike us as the second Sam Houston–not yet, anyway.


Eliot Spitzer – Democrat – current New York Attorney General

Thomas Suozzi – Democrat – Nassau County Executive

John Faso – Republican – practicing attorney, former minority leader in NY state legislature