| Dear Readers: Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson assesses a series of state-level contests for the Crystal Ball. Earlier this cycle, he provided overviews of state supreme court races and state legislative races, and today he updates the races for attorneys general and secretaries of state while also assessing a few standalone races for lieutenant governorships. The Crystal Ball does not issue formal race ratings for these races as part of our normal coverage (we reserve those “official” ratings for the Electoral College, Senate, House, and governors, which we will continually update up until Election Day), but we are also offering Lou’s updates and ratings on these lower-level but still-important races, which he has covered for many years.
— The Editors |
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— In 2024, there will be 10 contests for attorney general, 7 for secretary of state, and 5 for lieutenant governorships that are elected on their own rather than as part of a ticket with the gubernatorial nominee.
— By our assessment, only two states currently have competitive races in any of these categories—North Carolina for all 3 offices, and Pennsylvania for attorney general.
2024’s down-ballot statewide clashes
While the state positions of attorney general, secretary of state, and lieutenant governor are important in the realms of both policy and politics, the 2024 election cycle continues to be pretty sleepy where these offices are concerned.
This year, there will be 10 contests for attorney general, 7 for secretary of state, and 5 for lieutenant governorships that are elected on their own rather than as part of a ticket with the gubernatorial nominee.
Since we last analyzed attorney general and secretary of state races in late January, little has changed. This update does, however, include lieutenant governorships for the first time.
Only 2 states have competitive races in any of these categories — North Carolina for all 3 offices, and Pennsylvania for attorney general.
That’s actually one fewer competitive race than we categorized in January, following our shift in this edition of Indiana’s attorney general contest from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. However, a flurry of primaries in the last six months has clarified who the nominees will be in many states. (The main exceptions are Missouri, with a few wide-open primaries to be held on Aug. 6, and Washington state, with a less competitive top-two primary the same day.)
In all, 17 out of the 22 races in these 3 categories rate as either Safe Republican or Safe Democratic in our rankings, even though a whopping 12 of these races involve open seats. (Eight of the outgoing officeholders ran or are running for governor, a sign that these offices can be key stepping stones to higher office.)
Here’s a rundown of each race for AG, secretary of state, and lieutenant governor for 2024, based on interviews with political observers.
As in the past, we rate contests in descending order, from most likely to be won by the Republicans to most likely to be won by the Democrats, including within each rating category (Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-up, Leans Democratic, Likely Democratic, and Safe Democratic). We’ll update these ratings periodically as Election Day nears. We will start with attorneys general and then proceed to secretaries of state and lieutenant governors.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Utah: Open seat (Sean Reyes, R, is retiring)
After a series of high-profile controversies, incumbent Sean Reyes announced he would not seek a third full term as AG. Reyes becomes the third consecutive Republican attorney general in Utah to leave office under fire, dating back more than a decade.
Derek Brown, a former state GOP chair, former state representative, and lobbyist, won the Republican nomination with 44% of the vote.
Attorney Rudy Bautista is the Democratic nominee, and Michelle Quist, an attorney and former Salt Lake Tribune columnist, is another notable candidate running under the banner of the centrist United Utah Party.
Despite the history of GOP controversy in the office, Brown is the heavy frontrunner for November.
West Virginia: Open seat (Patrick Morrisey, R, is running for governor)
Two-term state auditor and former state delegate J.B. McCuskey won the GOP primary. McCuskey, who dropped out of the gubernatorial race to run for AG, is seen as a rising star with an establishment lean, rather than a Trumpy profile. Observers credit him with a successful tenure as auditor, raising the office’s visibility.
Attorney Teresa Toriseva won the Democratic primary, but McCuskey should be a lock to win, given that Republicans won all statewide elections by double digits in 2020.
Missouri: (Republican Andrew Bailey)
When Eric Schmitt left the AG office to become a U.S. senator, GOP Gov. Mike Parson appointed Bailey, his general counsel, to fill the vacancy. Now Bailey is running for a term of his own, and with the power of incumbency, he has been pursuing some red-meat conservative policies from the AG office. For example, in 2023 he proposed a rule to restrict access to transgender health care for both children and adults, only to withdraw it after several lawsuits were filed against the rule.
In the Aug. 6 primary, the pragmatic wing of the GOP prefers Will Scharf, a former federal prosecutor and onetime aide to then-Gov. Eric Greitens, a Republican who resigned the office amid a personal scandal. Bailey remains a modest favorite.
On the Democratic side, Elad Gross, who lost the 2020 Democratic primary for AG, is running again. But Missouri has become so solidly red that Democrats face huge hurdles in winning any statewide office.
Montana (Republican Austin Knudsen)
Knudsen faces Democrat Ben Alke, an attorney from Bozeman. While Alke is a political novice, he comes from a political family; his father is a longtime lobbyist in Helena with ties to both Democrats and Republicans. Alke is portraying Knudsen as overly political and ideological.
Even though an abortion rights ballot measure, one which Knudsen attempted to block, has a strong chance of making the ballot in Montana, potentially energizing Democratic turnout, Alke faces a steep climb in a state as red as this.
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Indiana (Republican Todd Rokita)
(Shift from Leans Republican)
Rokita has been highly visible—and controversial—particularly for pursuing sanctions against a physician who spoke to the media about the case of a 10-year-old rape victim that attracted national attention. Comments Rokita made on Fox News about the physician later drew him a reprimand from the Indiana Supreme Court, making him the second consecutive Republican AG in the state to be reprimanded by the court. In turn, Rokita has adopted a Trumpian, bare-knuckled response.
Establishment Republicans already weren’t thrilled with Rokita, but he survived without opposition to become the nominee in the Republican nominating convention.
Democrats nominated Destiny Wells, an Afghanistan War veteran and attorney who lost to Republican Diego Morales in the 2022 secretary of state contest. At the nominating convention, Wells defeated another former secretary of state nominee, Beth White, a former two-term Marion County clerk.
This race will have Democrats’ attention: It’s expected to be Indiana’s most competitive statewide race in 2024, far more than the gubernatorial and Senate contests. But no Democrat has won a statewide contest in Indiana since 2012.
There’s a possibility that more disciplinary shoes could drop for Rokita, and if the fallout becomes bad enough, that could jeopardize his chances of winning. But for now, he’s the favorite, and we’re shifting the race from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.
TOSS-UP
North Carolina: Open seat (Josh Stein, D, is running for governor)
It has been over a century since North Carolina elected a Republican as attorney general, although the GOP came very close to breaking through in both 2016 and 2020. This year’s AG race has already become a barnburner.
The two nominees for the open seat are sitting members of Congress: Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Jeff Jackson. Beyond that shared background, they differ sharply in ideology and style.
Bishop is a favorite of the GOP’s conservative wing, having been a member of the House Freedom Caucus and a thorn in the side of former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Jackson—who joined the AG race after effectively being drawn out of a seat in a Republican re-map last year—has attracted a statewide and even national following for his posts on TikTok.
A recent televised debate sponsored by the state bar association turned contentious. Even with other competitive contests in the state this fall, the AG race could attract substantial money and attention; we’re keeping it in the Toss-up category.
Pennsylvania: Open seat (Appointed AG Michelle Henry, D, is not running)
In their primaries, the Democrats chose former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, who received 35% of the vote in a crowded field of five candidates, while Republicans tapped York County District Attorney Dave Sunday. Both are considered credible candidates, but fundraising could become difficult for each, due to donor fatigue from the panoply of hot races in the state this year, including the contests for president, Senate, and several House seats.
There’s a good chance the top-of-ballot races will become the deciding factor by driving turnout, though Republicans did manage to win the statewide elections for treasurer and auditor general in 2020 despite Joe Biden’s victory in the state. For now this looks like a pure Toss-up.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
Oregon: Open seat (Ellen Rosenblum, D, is retiring)
Rosenblum is retiring after first winning the post in 2012. Former Democratic House Speaker Dan Rayfield and Republican Will Lathrop, a former prosecutor in Yamhill and Marion counties, won their primaries easily.
Lathrop is running on a law-and-order agenda, but the election ouster of a pro-reform district attorney in Multnomah County (Portland) and the legislature’s restoration of criminal penalties for possession of small amounts of fentanyl, heroin, cocaine, and meth took some steam out of the law-and-order issue.
An Oregon Republican hasn’t won an AG election since 1988, and Rayfield seems well positioned to keep that streak alive.
Washington state: Open seat (Bob Ferguson, D, is running for governor)
Ferguson leaves big shoes to fill as he runs for governor, but Washington state Democrats have a deep bench.
The two Democrats in the race are former U.S. Attorney Nicholas Brown (who has also competed on Survivor, the reality TV show) and state Sen. Manka Dhingra. Brown is well-liked and has the Democratic establishment on his side, but Dhingra is also considered a rising star. Her first victory was in a 2017 special election flipping control of the state senate to Democrats, so she’s been able to raise almost as much money as Brown and has secured some impressive endorsements of her own. Brown remains the Democratic frontrunner, but Dhingra will make him work for it.
Under Washington state’s top-two primary system, it would be possible for both Democrats to make the general election ballot. But it is more likely for the Republican candidate to make it to the final round after the primary election ends on Aug. 6. That would be Pete Serrano, the mayor of Pasco and an attorney who has challenged gun laws and COVID restrictions.
If Serrano does make the general election, then either Democrat would be heavily favored in November. And if both Democrats make it to the final round instead, then a Democratic victory would be assured.
Vermont (Democrat Charity Clark)
Clark was elected AG in 2022 and will have no credible opposition, with her only Republican challenger being known as a perennial candidate who is also running for auditor, secretary of state, and treasurer. She will have no trouble winning a second two-year term in solidly blue Vermont.
SECRETARY OF STATE
SAFE REPUBLICAN
West Virginia: Open seat (Mac Warner, R, lost a primary for governor)
The GOP nominee is state economic development official and former state party chair Kris Warner, whose brother is the outgoing secretary of state. Both Warners are well-known members of the Republican establishment in West Virginia.
The Democratic nominee is attorney Thornton Cooper. But West Virginia is now solidly red, and Warner is the overwhelming favorite to keep this office in the family.
Montana (Republican Christi Jacobsen)
Jacobsen is running for a new term. She faces Democrat Jesse Mullen, a publisher who owns several small-town newspapers. Mullen ran for state Senate in 2022 and lost. Jacobsen is a heavy favorite.
Missouri: Open seat (Jay Ashcroft, R, is running for governor)
The GOP primary is wide open and hard to handicap. The field includes House Speaker Dean Plocher, state Sens. Mary Elizabeth Coleman and Denny Hoskins, Greene County Clerk and former state Rep. Shane Schoeller, state Rep. Adam Schwadron, former municipal judge Mike Carter, newsletter publisher Jamie Corley, and Valentina Gomez, a far-right candidate who got attention earlier this week for apparently recording a video from the U.S. House speaker’s balcony.
The most prominent Democrat running is state Rep. Barbara Phifer, but whoever wins the GOP nomination is almost certain to win in November.
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
North Carolina (Democrat Elaine Marshall)
Despite North Carolina’s slight Republican lean, Marshall has become something of an institution in the state, having first been elected as secretary of state in 1996, in a contest against NASCAR star Richard Petty. Notably, no Republican has won an election for North Carolina secretary of state since 1872. Though Marshall typically has been helped by better-than-average support in the rural areas, her coalition has steadily become more like that of a national Democrat, with backing in urban and suburban areas. Marshall won her most recent race by only about 2 percentage points in 2020, so the 2024 election should be competitive.
After winning a competitive primary by double digits, Gaston County Commissioner and former Stanley Mayor Chad Brown is the GOP nominee.
So far, the race has been quieter than others on the North Carolina ballot this year, and incumbency continues to favor Marshall. This could change as the campaign develops, but for now, we’re keeping this race at Leans Democratic.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
Oregon: Open seat (Appointed AG LaVonne Griffin-Valade, D, is not running for a full term)
Democrat Shemia Fagan resigned as secretary of state following a scandal regarding consulting work for a cannabis company. Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek appointed Griffin-Valade, a former elected auditor for both Portland city and Multnomah County, but Griffin-Valade has declined to seek a full term. (In Oregon, the secretary of state is next in line for the governorship, as there is no lieutenant governor.)
On the Democratic side, term-limited state Treasurer Tobias Read decisively defeated his primary opponent, state Sen. James Manning Jr. Read has been campaigning aggressively, with strong fundraising and organizational support.
The Republican nominee is state Sen. Dennis Linthicum, who was barred from running for his seat again after the enactment of a voter-approved provision that targeted unexcused absences in the legislature; the Republican minority had often used coordinated absences to deny a quorum and block the Democratic majority.
In this blue state, there’s no reason to think Read won’t win comfortably. And Read is young; he will be only 55 in 2030, when Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek could be finishing a second term.
Washington (Democrat Steve Hobbs)
Hobbs, who was appointed to the office in 2021 and won the remainder of an unexpired term in 2022, should have no trouble winning again in 2024. He does not face any top-tier competition for the office.
Vermont (Democrat Sarah Copeland Hanzas)
Copeland Hanzas, who won her first term as secretary of state in 2022, won’t have credible opposition and will easily win reelection.
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Missouri: Open seat (Mike Kehoe, R, is running for governor)
The contest to succeed Kehoe is wide open on the Republican side. The GOP field includes state Sens. Holly Rehder and Lincoln Hough and Franklin County Clerk Tim Baker. Rehder is a modest favorite, but a lot of voters are undecided, so there’s still time for shifts before the Aug. 6 primary.
The likely Democratic candidate is state Rep. Richard Brown. But any Democrat running statewide in Missouri these days is at an overwhelming disadvantage.
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
North Carolina: Open seat (Mark Robinson, R, is running for governor)
In an 11-way primary, Republicans nominated Hal Weatherman, a longtime political operative in the state, including service with then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest. He won less than 20% of the vote in the first round, but he won 74% in the low-turnout runoff election.
The Democratic nominee easily won her primary: state Sen. and former state Rep. Rachel Hunt. Hunt is best known for her last name: She’s the daughter of popular four-term Democratic Gov. Jim Hunt. While the elder Hunt has been out of office since 2001, a lot of current voters either pulled the lever for him or at least know something about him.
This race will likely generate less heat than the gubernatorial race; Robinson’s history of controversial comments has dominated coverage in that contest. But Hunt’s candidacy should drive some attention and money to the race. We’re putting this race in the Leans Democratic category thanks to Hunt’s pedigree, but we’ll be watching for future developments.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
Vermont (Democrat-Progressive David Zuckerman)
Initially, it seemed that Zuckerman might have trouble winning a second-straight two-year term and fourth term overall, because some Vermont Democrats consider him too far to the left. In the 2022 general election, he won just 54% of the vote, an underwhelming performance for a Democrat in Vermont. Zuckerman unsuccessfully challenged Gov. Phil Scott (R) in 2020 but won this office back in 2022. Despite some vulnerability, potential challengers have not gained much traction yet.
A Democratic challenger, Thomas Renner, has had a late start and posted disappointing fundraising figures. A credible Republican candidate, John Rodgers, is a former Democratic state senator who has positioned himself as a voice for those disaffected with taxes and spending. But it’s unclear whether he will be able to put up the resources necessary for a genuine run.
The other leading Republican, Gregory Thayer, is aligned with Trump, which won’t get very far in a Vermont general election.
Unless they manage to reverse their flagging fortunes, the potential challengers will find it hard to knock off a resilient Zuckerman. Until further notice, we’ll rate this race Safe Democratic.
Delaware: Open seat (Bethany Hall-Long, D, is running for governor)
The leading Democratic candidates in the Sept. 10 primary are state Sen. Kyle Evans Gay, state Rep. Sherry Dorsey Walker, and retired Army Col. and state party vice chair Debbie Harrington. All are credible and the contest will be hard-fought, without much clarity for the moment about who’s leading.
The GOP has one candidate: former state Rep, Ruth Briggs King. She represented her southern Delaware district for 14 years, but the odds are against her winning statewide in a solidly blue state.
Washington: (Democrat Denny Heck)
Incumbent Democratic Lt. Gov. Denny Heck, a former U.S. House member, is running for a second term. He does not face significant competition.
| Louis Jacobson is a Senior Columnist for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. He is also the chief correspondent at the fact-checking website PolitiFact and is senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. He was senior author of the Almanac’s 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 editions and a contributing writer for the 2000 and 2004 editions. |