Six Decades of Regional Change in House Elections

The GOP edge in the South, already large, could grow in 2022

Dear Readers: Last week, the UVA Center for Politics premiered a new student-produced documentary, Common Grounds?, which explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of students from across the political spectrum. The documentary is posted on YouTube, and we hope you will take a look at what we...

Notes on the State of Politics: Nov. 18, 2021

Redistricting action out West; looking back on Sen. Patrick Leahy’s career

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Redistricting: Four western states pass maps Since the Crystal Ball’s redistricting update last week, a few more states have enacted or advanced maps -- a...

Less Than A Year Out: A Redistricting Update

Going over new maps in NC, TX, and other states

Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 7 p.m. for the premiere of Common Grounds?, a new documentary produced by University of Virginia Center for Politics interns that brings together students from across UVA to discuss their political beliefs. The premiere will be followed by a panel discussion with the makers of...

New Hampshire: The Fallout from Sununu’s Choice

Gubernatorial race moves to Safe Republican, but GOP still lacks a top challenger to Hassan

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans are still looking for a challenger to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) after Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) surprisingly passed on running against her next year. -- Sununu’s decision to run for reelection means Republicans are heavy favorites to hold onto the New Hampshire governorship....

Republican Sweep in Virginia Sets off Alarm Bells for Democrats

After picking Youngkin in Old Dominion, Crystal Ball shifts several Democratic Senate seats to Toss-up

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow, Thursday, Nov. 4, from 6:30 p.m.* to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project. They will be followed by...

A Last Word on Virginia

The race doesn’t always predict the next midterm, although it has given some signals more recently

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday, Nov. 4 from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project. They will be followed by discussions...

Project Home Fire Brief Shot: Election Law Changes

Brief Shots are quick, newsworthy notes from the UVA Center for Politics/Project Home Fire polling and data analytics project. See here for more information on the ongoing project. Last week, Senate Republicans blocked action on the Freedom to Vote Act. By way of background, this legislation would enact automatic voter...

Next Week’s Biggest Statewide Ballot Issues

Five states feature notable issues, with possible redistricting changes in New York leading the list

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Voters in several states will be deciding significant statewide ballot issues next week. -- The most notable issues deal with topics such as gaming, energy, taxes, and more. But the one with the most national import is in New York, where voters could give...

An Excerpt from The Long Red Thread

The factors that transformed the House from a Democratic preserve to a chamber where Republicans often, but not always, have the edge

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik’s new book, The Long Red Thread: How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in US House Elections, was published by Ohio University Press this week. It is available through IndieBound, Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other booksellers. The Long Red Thread...

Five Questions About Virginia’s Tight Gubernatorial Race

Breaking down 2021’s marquee race with less than 3 weeks to go

Dear Readers: Join us next Tuesday at 4 p.m. eastern for “Moon Rovers, Boots on Mars, and Exploring the Cosmos: A Conversation on the Politics of Space” with NASA Administrator Bill Nelson and UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato. Prior to serving as the NASA administrator, Nelson was...

How Democrats Are Losing the War for Counties

Tracking 20 years of county-level presidential election changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats, particularly at the presidential level, are maintaining or increasing their electoral strength in populated areas, but Republicans are strengthening their hold on more rural areas. -- This tradeoff has led to a decline in the number of counties won by Democratic candidates since...