Where Biden’s Primary Showing Was (And Wasn’t) Especially Strong
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE —As with our recent examination of the Republican primary, President Biden—like former President Trump—has won most of his contests easily, but some areas stand out. —The Upper Midwest has been an interesting region in the Democratic primary where Biden has held up better in rural areas than in urban core counties. —In some “ancestrally Democratic” states that have closed primaries, there has been a small but clear protest vote against Biden. —Looking at Pennsylvania’s recent results in this context basically affirms some of its longer-term realigning movements. Now, for the Democratic primary… Last week, we considered Donald Trump’s performance in the Republican primary. Of course, Trump ended up dominating what was initially a crowded field and has been the presumptive nominee for more than a month. But when we went into the weeds in each state and looked at where his 2024 coalition was especially strong (or weak), some familiar patterns were present. Generally speaking, while Trump’s hold on rural America remains strong, there are clearly some signs that he’s continuing to struggle in many suburban counties. So, for this week, we are doing something of a follow-up article and shifting our focus to the