Senate 2022: An Early Look

Democrats may ultimately have a better shot to win the Senate than the House in two years, although winning either will be challenging

Dear Readers: Our 22nd annual American Democracy Conference is now available on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and at this direct link. It features New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie, CNN commentator Tara Setmayer, and Democratic strategist John Lapp discussing Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential race, disappointing results for Democrats down the ballot,...

Wisconsin: Decisive Again in 2020

In a state that's seen major electoral shifts, the stasis of some areas was also notable this year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Once again, Wisconsin appears to be the tipping point state in the Electoral College, though its 10 electoral votes are back in the Democratic column this year. -- In 2016, Donald Trump made major inroads in western Wisconsin. Despite coming up short statewide, his...

Notes on the State of the 2020 Election

Biden’s thin margins in the decisive states; third party vote declines; Senate aligns more closely with presidential partisanship; Republicans demonstrate down-ballot crossover appeal

Dear Readers: Check out our YouTube channel, UVACFP, later today for our latest Crystal Ball webinar. It will feature the 22nd annual American Democracy Conference: We’ll be hearing from New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie; CNN commentator Tara Setmayer; Republican strategist Chris LaCivita; and Democratic strategist John Lapp. That program...

Sifting Through the Results So Far

Dear Readers: We just posted a new Crystal Ball webinar on Friday afternoon, which you can watch at this direct link on YouTube. We discussed presidential concession speeches, our successful Electoral College projection, ticket-splitting (or lack thereof), what remains to be counted, and the looming Georgia Senate runoffs in January....

Final Ratings for the 2020 Election

Biden favored for president; narrow Democratic edge in Senate; Democrats favored to net seats in House

Dear Readers: Due to popular demand, we decided to release a final pre-election Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We will be going through our picks for the election. We’ll also hear from Rob Griffin, the research director of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, about the demographic changes we...

The Campaign That Didn’t Matter?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- New numbers from the UMass Poll show very few undecided voters and suggest the vast majority of those voting for Joe Biden and Donald Trump made up their minds well before the pandemic and before Biden secured the Democratic nomination. -- Nearly two-thirds of...

Georgia’s Senate Races Both Move to Toss-up

And how we’re thinking about the presidential race with five days to go

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. for our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. In addition to breaking down the election with just days to go, we’ll be joined by Scott Tranter of Decision Desk HQ, a site that will be independently reporting results Tuesday night. Scott will...

Democrats Poised to Make State Legislative Gains

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to once again welcome Chaz Nuttycombe for an analysis of state legislative races across the country. While we do not issue our own ratings in these races, Chaz follows them very closely. For more information on some of this cycle’s other state-level races, check out Senior...

Elasticity in Swing States

Why a state like Wisconsin bounces around a lot more than a state like Florida

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Swing voters are not the same as swing states. This article discusses a metric called “elasticity” for counties, which tracks a county’s variance in vote margin, to help us better identify and draw the distinction between these two. -- In the 2020 election, Republicans...

States of Play: Virginia

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. for our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. In addition to breaking down the election with just days to go, we’ll be joined by members of the Decision Desk HQ team, which will be independently reporting results Tuesday night. They’ll give us...

Ballot Measures: A National Rundown for 2020

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Quietly, 2020 is proving to be a major year for ballot measures, with 120 on statewide ballots. In this article, we’ll look at 70 with the potential to have a significant policy impact. -- Some of the most numerous this year are related to...

States of Play: Florida

The right-leaning swing state that may be the key to 2020

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m., just hours before the final presidential debate, for the latest edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. Professor Sabato will be joined by Tara Setmayer, who is serving as a resident scholar at the Center. We'll also hear from former White House...

The Highest Courts in the States

Important races in Michigan, Ohio highlight this year’s state supreme court races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- State supreme court elections are often overlooked, stuck at the end of long ballots and receiving little media coverage. But they can play decisive roles on policies. -- Below are rundowns of 10 states that have at least one contested supreme court election this...

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic

Replaces North Carolina as the seat likeliest to be No. 50 for Democrats; the House state of play

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m., just hours before the final presidential debate, for the latest edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the closing days of the campaign, email us at goodpolitics@virginia.edu. Additionally, an audio-only podcast...