Three Weeks to Go: Has Anybody Seen Our Crystal Ball Anywhere?
The presidential election “vibes” have arguably been positive for Republicans in recent days, but the race is still completely up for grabs.
Places to Watch, Part Two: The Sun Belt
North Carolina and Georgia each have suburban counties where Kamala Harris could gain next month, although Donald Trump may well do so in some of their rural counties. Arizona and Nevada each have large counties that dominate their politics, but other counties in those states are worth keeping an eye on.
Defining ‘Close’ in the Context of the 2024 Election
Most expect the presidential race to be “close,” but what does that actually mean? The 6 most recent presidential elections provide some parameters—and set a high bar.
Indiana Governor Moves to the Edge of the Playing Field
We announced a rating change last week that we’d like to formalize today: We are moving Indiana’s gubernatorial race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. The GOP is still clearly favored there but there’s been enough activity that it doesn’t seem like an average, sleepy “Safe”-rated contest.
Abortion Rights, Elections, Criminal Justice, and Much More: The 2024 State Ballot Issues to Watch
States will ask voters to decide on many key ballot issues this year, dealing with high-profile issues such as reproductive rights, elections, criminal justice, and much more
The Connection Between Jimmy Carter’s 100th Birthday and Tonight’s VP Debate
Former President Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday coinciding with the vice presidential debate today is fitting, given the important role Carter played in elevating the stature of the vice presidency.
House Rating Change: Key NE-2 Race to Leans Democratic
The balance of the data suggests that Rep. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) should be viewed as a small underdog at this point, so we’re moving the race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
Places to Watch, Part One: The Industrial North
While the 7 states that the Crystal Ball currently rates as Toss-ups will be important in the Electoral College, each state has several key counties. We are examining a selection of crucial counties in the "Blue Wall" states.
Rating Changes: Nebraska and North Carolina
The single electoral vote in NE-2 moves to Likely Democratic, and the state's Senate race moves to Likely Republican. We also explain our recent rating change in the NC gubernatorial race.
Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight
We are changing 5 House ratings this week, although that does not change our overall arithmetic in the House. We continue to view the race for the chamber as effectively a 50-50 proposition.
What the Polls Say Outside the Key Swing States
Polling in states that are somewhat competitive for president but outside the group of 7 that is likely to decide this election generally reflect the 2020 results, although Donald Trump is usually performing slightly better than the actual 2020 results in those states, much like the polling in the key battlegrounds that we covered last week.
Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin
Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out. Keep that in mind as polling shows Kamala Harris holding up a little bit better in the Badger State than elsewhere.
Notes on the State of Debates and Primaries
a few takeaways from last night’s presidential debate, a tally of incumbent success in U.S. House primaries this year, and how New Hampshire set up a woman-vs.-woman gubernatorial election, a historical rarity that has become much more common the past couple of cycles.
Montana Senate Race Moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican
The Montana Senate race moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican. This moves means that a majority of Senate seats, 51, now are rated Safe, Likely, or Leaning Republican in our ratings.
The Race for the Senate: Democrats Still in the Game, but Republicans Have the Upper Hand
We continue to expect Republicans to flip the Senate this year, given the huge level of Democratic exposure.
The 2024 Gubernatorial Races: Premier NC Race Moves to Leans Democratic Amidst Lack of Competition Elsewhere
This year’s marquee gubernatorial race, North Carolina, moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in our ratings.
Time for Change Model Predicts Close Election with Slight Edge for Kamala Harris
This year's version of the Time for Change model shows Kamala Harris as a narrow favorite in both the popular vote and Electoral College, but her predicted margins are so small that the safest prediction we can make about the 2024 presidential election is that it is likely to be very close.
North Carolina Moves to Toss-up, Setting Up November Battle for Magnificent Seven Swing States
North Carolina moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up in our Electoral College ratings, further emphasizing a focus on 7 key swing states to the exclusion of almost everywhere else.
Incumbent Senators Do Not Need to Poll at 50% to Win
Incumbent senators who polled below 50% in the summertime–or even right before the election–are not doomed to defeat.
Bounces, Favorability, and Third Parties: Three Key Questions as DNC Looms
Last week, the Crystal Ball moved some Electoral College ratings toward the Democrats, solidifying the presidential race as a true Toss-up. With the Democratic National Convention coming up next week, here are a trio of key questions we’re monitoring as we evaluate whether the race is moving toward one candidate or the other: