The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting

Over two decades, double-digit overperformances have become far less common

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common. -- Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead...

Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do

Four seats in Democratic majority start as Toss-up or worse

Dear Readers: Please join us this week for a pair of special Center for Politics forums, both of which are free and open to the public and will also be livestreamed. Today (Tuesday, Jan. 24) at 4 p.m., we will host the ambassador of Chile, Juan Gabriel Valdés, at the...

2024 Governors Races: A First Look

And an updated word on Mississippi

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up. -- The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats. -- If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in...

JFK Records Reveal Intense Level of Secrecy by CIA During Investigation of Assassination

Hoffa Sought King’s Help in Getting Bobby Kennedy to “Lay Off”

Calling it “the tip of the iceberg,” Professor Larry J. Sabato and the Center for Politics at UVA released details today of new information discovered in records released by the National Archives last month from the collection of President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records. Among the findings was a previously...

The 2023 Governor Races

Democrats retain a slight edge in Kentucky, while Republicans favored in neighboring Deep South states

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While it’s easy to begin looking towards the 2024 election cycle, 3 states will have gubernatorial contests this year. -- In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear remains personally popular, but he will be running in a red state with a large GOP bench. --...

The Political Profile of McCarthy’s Detractors

Most from uncompetitive districts; recent primary results helped build the anti-McCarthy coalition

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article is being published following the adjournment of the House on the afternoon of Wednesday, Jan. 4 after the body failed to elect a speaker on 6 roll call votes held Tuesday and Wednesday. The House was scheduled to return at 8 p.m....

McCarthy, Santos, and a Tenuous GOP Majority

Republicans make their speaker choice as a competitive battle for House control looms in 2024

Dear Readers: The event scheduled for Friday evening featuring law enforcement officers who defended the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 has been postponed. Keep your eye on this space for more information about this event and other upcoming Center for Politics programs this winter and spring. -- The Editors KEY...

Notes on the State of North Carolina

And a quick word on the VA-4 special

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away through the end of year. We wish all of you Happy Holidays, and we will be back the first week of January. Join us on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. for an exclusive first look at our upcoming documentary on the events...

Will Trump Succeed?

Assessing his 2022 record and 2024 chances

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election. -- The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections. -- But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in...

The Electoral College in the 21st Century

A brief history of a competitive era

Dear Readers: Join the Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik, J. Miles Coleman, and Carah Ong Whaley for a Twitter Spaces at 2 p.m. eastern today. They will be wrapping up the best and worst moments from politics in 2022, and listeners will also get the chance to answer trivia questions and...

The End of a Golden Age?

Why elections are increasingly difficult to predict

Dear Readers: We’re excited to feature an essay from a distinguished UVA alumnus, David Peyton, on the challenges election prognosticators face in an unstable and fast-changing geopolitical environment. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- American elections are becoming harder to predict. -- Part of this is likely...

No, the Big Lie Hasn’t Gone Away

Tracking how election deniers performed in 2022

Dear Readers: Listeners to our “Politics is Everything” podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is...

Georgia Runoff to Leans Democratic

Trump forces in danger of yet another Peach State setback

Dear Readers: Join us Wednesday at 2 p.m. eastern for a Twitter Spaces featuring J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of the Crystal Ball along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley in which we’ll recap Tuesday’s Georgia runoff and tie a bow on the 2022 election. If...

The New Crossover Members of the House

Republicans win majority by cutting deeper into hostile turf; number of split districts remains low historically

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. -- There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5...