Can Democrats Win Back the White Working Class?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One of the defining features of American politics is the realignment of white, college-educated voters toward Democrats and that of white voters without a degree toward Republicans. -- There are competing views on how or whether Democrats can perform better among white non-college voters....

How Donald Trump Turned Off Swing Voters in 2020

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of swing voters -- those who change their minds between presidential elections -- has been declining over time. -- However, there are still some swing voters, and they can be decisive in the nation’s highly competitive presidential elections. -- Swing voters helped...

How did the Political Science Forecasters Do?

Dear Readers: We will be releasing a new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball webinar series next Wednesday morning. It will be posted on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and we will also send out the direct YouTube link in next Wednesday's issue of the Crystal Ball. We'll be discussing the...

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020

Biden’s lead has been similar to Clinton’s, but it has been more stable

Editor's Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We'll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton...

Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. -- The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results. -- This suggests that pollsters have...

A Coronavirus Recession Could Doom Trump’s Reelection Chances

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity. -- Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall. -- A recession...

Democrats’ Dilemma: Ideology, Electability, and the 2020 Presidential Nomination in Iowa and the Nation

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic electorate has been getting more liberal, although at the same time, Democrats are not necessarily prioritizing ideology as they select a presidential nominee. -- Over time, both Democrats and Republicans have expressed increasingly negative views of the other party's presidential nominee. --...