KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Negative partisanship -- the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the other side -- has become a powerful force in American politics. -- This dynamic makes it harder for partisans to cross over to the other side and keeps general elections...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some recent presidents who lost reelection. -- However, Biden is still very competitive in polling with the current leader for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, in part because voters still...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 40 years, and a pair of factors -- race and education -- have driven the changes. -- The electorate has become more diverse and more highly educated. Democrats rely heavily on nonwhite voters and...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One of the big stories of American politics over the past half-century has been a growing ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans. -- This has also led to more ideological cohesion within parties, including a dramatic increase among Democrats between 2012 and 2020. Democrats are...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings. -- Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics. -- President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.” -- Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida. -- However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in...
Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics this Friday from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. eastern for a virtual panel, “Crisis in Europe: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” Center for Politics resident scholar Chris Krebs, the former director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In the aftermath of the high-turnout 2020 election, many Republican-controlled state governments have passed legislation that Democrats believe will harm their party’s voter turnout. -- However, voting rules did not appear to have much impact on turnout and had no measurable impact on vote...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The non-presidential party often performs better in off-year elections than it did in the previous cycle’s presidential race. The recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are no exception, both this year and historically. -- This likely has more to do with an enthusiasm...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One of the defining features of American politics is the realignment of white, college-educated voters toward Democrats and that of white voters without a degree toward Republicans. -- There are competing views on how or whether Democrats can perform better among white non-college voters....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of swing voters -- those who change their minds between presidential elections -- has been declining over time. -- However, there are still some swing voters, and they can be decisive in the nation’s highly competitive presidential elections. -- Swing voters helped...
Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in for free...
Dear Readers: Tomorrow at noon, the McIntire School of Commerce will be hosting a virtual event featuring Sonja Hoel Perkins, a UVA alumna. A preeminent venture capitalist and philanthropist, she’s put a special emphasis on improving the careers of women and girls. Perkins sits on the Center for Politics’ Board,...
Dear Readers: We will be releasing a new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball webinar series next Wednesday morning. It will be posted on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and we will also send out the direct YouTube link in next Wednesday's issue of the Crystal Ball. We'll be discussing the...
