KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two factors that historically have been helpful in forecasting presidential elections -- the power of incumbency and the state of the economy -- may be less useful in this year’s election, both because of long-term changes in American politics and the current public health...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa over the weekend was a reminder of how much his campaign values well-attended rallies. -- Trump campaigned more times in more states than Hillary Clinton in 2016. -- However, a regression analysis of the 2016 results does not show...
Editor's Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We'll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. -- The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results. -- This suggests that pollsters have...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity. -- Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall. -- A recession...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic electorate has been getting more liberal, although at the same time, Democrats are not necessarily prioritizing ideology as they select a presidential nominee. -- Over time, both Democrats and Republicans have expressed increasingly negative views of the other party's presidential nominee. --...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Some commentators are beginning to look at Donald Trump as a strong favorite for a second term. -- These projections are generally based on the power of incumbency and the strength of the economy. -- However, it may be that the president won't benefit...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- “Medicare for All” has been a major issue in the Democratic primary race. But it also came up a lot in the 2018 cycle. -- A regression analysis comparing the performance of 2018 Democratic House candidates shows that those who supported Medicare for All...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- More Republicans identify as conservative than Democrats identify as liberal. -- This has led to questions about whether ideological fissures in the Democratic Party could make it harder for the party to rally around its eventual nominee. -- However, Democrats actually are more united...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s recent testimony was a reminder that Russia attempted to influence the outcome of the 2016 election and very well may try to do so again in 2020. -- This begs the question: Is there any evidence that Russian interference may...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A forecasting model based on postwar electoral history along with the president's approval rating and the House generic ballot points to Democratic gains next fall. -- The model's projection won't be finalized until late next summer and will be based on whatever the president's...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The author’s “time for change” presidential forecasting model has a successful track record of projecting presidential elections. In 2016, it showed Donald Trump as a favorite to win the national popular vote. Though Trump ultimately lost the popular vote while winning the Electoral College,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- District partisanship was by far the strongest determinant of the results of House elections in 2018, with Republican candidates typically running behind Donald Trump’s 2016 margins in all types of districts. -- Whether incumbents under- or over-performed was unrelated to ideology. Moderate Republicans actually...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- There is not much evidence that President Trump's rallies held for GOP Senate candidates had much of an effect on the results. -- At the very least, two other factors were significantly more important: The normal partisan lean of the states where those contests...
KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE -- On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year. The monthly average ranged from 6.2 points in February 2018 to 10.1 points in December 2017. The December result was clearly an outlier, however, and may have led to a...
