KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings. -- Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics. -- President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.” -- Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida. -- However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in...
Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics this Friday from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. eastern for a virtual panel, “Crisis in Europe: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” Center for Politics resident scholar Chris Krebs, the former director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In the aftermath of the high-turnout 2020 election, many Republican-controlled state governments have passed legislation that Democrats believe will harm their party’s voter turnout. -- However, voting rules did not appear to have much impact on turnout and had no measurable impact on vote...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The non-presidential party often performs better in off-year elections than it did in the previous cycle’s presidential race. The recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are no exception, both this year and historically. -- This likely has more to do with an enthusiasm...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One of the defining features of American politics is the realignment of white, college-educated voters toward Democrats and that of white voters without a degree toward Republicans. -- There are competing views on how or whether Democrats can perform better among white non-college voters....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of swing voters -- those who change their minds between presidential elections -- has been declining over time. -- However, there are still some swing voters, and they can be decisive in the nation’s highly competitive presidential elections. -- Swing voters helped...
Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in for free...
Dear Readers: Tomorrow at noon, the McIntire School of Commerce will be hosting a virtual event featuring Sonja Hoel Perkins, a UVA alumna. A preeminent venture capitalist and philanthropist, she’s put a special emphasis on improving the careers of women and girls. Perkins sits on the Center for Politics’ Board,...
Dear Readers: We will be releasing a new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball webinar series next Wednesday morning. It will be posted on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and we will also send out the direct YouTube link in next Wednesday's issue of the Crystal Ball. We'll be discussing the...
Dear Readers: We will be back Thursday afternoon at 2 p.m. for our final Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar before next Tuesday’s election. We will also have a reaction show the Thursday after the election. The livestream will be available at our YouTube page, UVACFP. If you have questions...
Dear Readers: On Thursday’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes, we'll go in-depth on the race for the Senate. We'll also be joined by a special guest: Grace Panetta of Business Insider. The election has already started, with millions of votes already cast: Grace is closely following...
Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes. We'll be reacting to the first debate and assessing the state of play in the election with just a little more than a month to go. If you have questions you...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two factors that historically have been helpful in forecasting presidential elections -- the power of incumbency and the state of the economy -- may be less useful in this year’s election, both because of long-term changes in American politics and the current public health...
