How did the Political Science Forecasters Do?

Dear Readers: We will be releasing a new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball webinar series next Wednesday morning. It will be posted on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and we will also send out the direct YouTube link in next Wednesday's issue of the Crystal Ball. We'll be discussing the...

Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020

Biden’s lead has been similar to Clinton’s, but it has been more stable

Editor's Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We'll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton...

Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. -- The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results. -- This suggests that pollsters have...

A Coronavirus Recession Could Doom Trump’s Reelection Chances

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity. -- Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall. -- A recession...

Democrats’ Dilemma: Ideology, Electability, and the 2020 Presidential Nomination in Iowa and the Nation

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic electorate has been getting more liberal, although at the same time, Democrats are not necessarily prioritizing ideology as they select a presidential nominee. -- Over time, both Democrats and Republicans have expressed increasingly negative views of the other party's presidential nominee. --...

Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- “Medicare for All” has been a major issue in the Democratic primary race. But it also came up a lot in the 2018 cycle. -- A regression analysis comparing the performance of 2018 Democratic House candidates shows that those who supported Medicare for All...

Which Party’s Voters are More Divided?

Hint: It’s Not the One You Think

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- More Republicans identify as conservative than Democrats identify as liberal. -- This has led to questions about whether ideological fissures in the Democratic Party could make it harder for the party to rally around its eventual nominee. -- However, Democrats actually are more united...

Did Russian Interference Affect the 2016 Election Results?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s recent testimony was a reminder that Russia attempted to influence the outcome of the 2016 election and very well may try to do so again in 2020. -- This begs the question: Is there any evidence that Russian interference may...

The 2020 Congressional Elections: A Very Early Forecast

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A forecasting model based on postwar electoral history along with the president's approval rating and the House generic ballot points to Democratic gains next fall. -- The model's projection won't be finalized until late next summer and will be based on whatever the president's...