KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One of the defining features of American politics is the realignment of white, college-educated voters toward Democrats and that of white voters without a degree toward Republicans. -- There are competing views on how or whether Democrats can perform better among white non-college voters....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of swing voters -- those who change their minds between presidential elections -- has been declining over time. -- However, there are still some swing voters, and they can be decisive in the nation’s highly competitive presidential elections. -- Swing voters helped...
Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in for free...
Dear Readers: Tomorrow at noon, the McIntire School of Commerce will be hosting a virtual event featuring Sonja Hoel Perkins, a UVA alumna. A preeminent venture capitalist and philanthropist, she’s put a special emphasis on improving the careers of women and girls. Perkins sits on the Center for Politics’ Board,...
Dear Readers: We will be releasing a new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball webinar series next Wednesday morning. It will be posted on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and we will also send out the direct YouTube link in next Wednesday's issue of the Crystal Ball. We'll be discussing the...
Dear Readers: We will be back Thursday afternoon at 2 p.m. for our final Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar before next Tuesday’s election. We will also have a reaction show the Thursday after the election. The livestream will be available at our YouTube page, UVACFP. If you have questions...
Dear Readers: On Thursday’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes, we'll go in-depth on the race for the Senate. We'll also be joined by a special guest: Grace Panetta of Business Insider. The election has already started, with millions of votes already cast: Grace is closely following...
Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes. We'll be reacting to the first debate and assessing the state of play in the election with just a little more than a month to go. If you have questions you...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two factors that historically have been helpful in forecasting presidential elections -- the power of incumbency and the state of the economy -- may be less useful in this year’s election, both because of long-term changes in American politics and the current public health...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa over the weekend was a reminder of how much his campaign values well-attended rallies. -- Trump campaigned more times in more states than Hillary Clinton in 2016. -- However, a regression analysis of the 2016 results does not show...
Editor's Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We'll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In aggregate, Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump so far this year is very similar to the lead Hillary Clinton...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. -- The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results. -- This suggests that pollsters have...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity. -- Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall. -- A recession...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic electorate has been getting more liberal, although at the same time, Democrats are not necessarily prioritizing ideology as they select a presidential nominee. -- Over time, both Democrats and Republicans have expressed increasingly negative views of the other party's presidential nominee. --...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Some commentators are beginning to look at Donald Trump as a strong favorite for a second term. -- These projections are generally based on the power of incumbency and the strength of the economy. -- However, it may be that the president won't benefit...
