KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Although off-year elections for governor generally yield worse results for the party of the president than for the opposition, whether the incumbent governor is running for reelection is a mediating factor. -- The worst outcomes for the party of the president often come when...
Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential election victory has been compared to an earthquake, a seismic event that toppled fledging dynasties in both major parties, ruptured political alliances, damaged the reputation of pundits, and left millions in shock or depressed. To this day, its after-effects, like tsunamis or landslides that can follow...
This week the Crystal Ball publishes a prediction that suggests the House majority may stay with the Democrats, written by Professor Alfred G. Cuzan of the University of West Florida. While Professor Cuzan makes a compelling case, the Crystal Ball’s unique dual method—examining all 435 House races individually and incorporating...
In his first year in the White House, Barack Obama’s job approval fell about fifteen points. (The source for all poll data analyzed in this article is the Roper Center.) This steep decline was unusual but not unprecedented for a new president. Two others, one from each party, stand out:...
