KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The 2020 election may effectively be decided by six crucial swing states, all of which featured margins of less than two percentage points in 2016. -- While these states are up for grabs in 2020, there are signs that these states have been becoming...
Last week’s Crystal Ball repeated its refrain that Donald Trump is very unlikely to get the Republican presidential nomination. However, it issued the caveat that “[i]t would be easier to make our argument if we could explain precisely how and by whom the real estate tycoon will be dethroned.” Who...
It’s now about two months, 60 days, until actual voting begins in that fascinating exercise in democracy, the Iowa caucuses. A few days later the good folks of New Hampshire follow with another great American tradition, their first-in-the-nation primary and its own unique brand of retail politics. As always, the...
It is quite interesting to speculate about the 2016 presidential nomination battles and especially potential general election winners and losers. But, it might be best for all of us to keep our powder dry. Current conventional wisdom has it that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and any of...
It’s interesting to hear politicians, political analysts and journalists use the term “gender gap.” They do so with great frequency, and it is almost always explicitly, implicitly or contextually focused on women. It is true, of course, that women usually vote 8% to 12% more Democratic than do men. But,...
