The Key to the Senate: Democrats vs. Biden Approval

They will need to run considerably ahead of the president to win

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article looks at the 2022 Senate races and compares current trial heat data to the president’s approval rating in these states. -- Historically, in-power incumbents outperform the sitting president’s job approval. This trend is continuing in 2022, and the average of this outperformance...

Trump Struggling to Match Job Approval in Polling

But data as a whole suggest race remains highly competitive

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- There is a substantial and persistent difference among pollsters’ findings with respect to Donald Trump’s job approval and his percentage against Joe Biden. -- Biden’s ability to consolidate the anti-Trump vote will be decisive. -- Trump’s statewide job approval is almost exactly what one...