Sure, you've heard of the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire Primary, and so on. But 2008's first presidential pre-nomination contests are already underway, and have been for a long (and we'd argue, too long) time. They're the "invisible" primaries, and for better or worse, we in the pundit class get...
There's no better day than Friday the 13th to venture into the occult, so your clairvoyant friends at the upstanding U.Va. Center for Politics just couldn't resist: we had to share the latest results of our Crystal Ball gazing with you today. And what a freaky election we spy in...
One sign that a party is heading downhill is when it literally gives away seats in Congress. In 1994, the Democrats did so. Twelve years later, the Republicans are following suit. Democrats seemed capable of just about one thing in 1994: hemorrhaging seats in Congress. Powerful Illinois Rep. Dan Rostenkowski...
A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats in Play: 62 Safe R Likey R (22) Leans R (23) Toss-up (15) Leans D (2) Likely D (0) Safe D 180 seats AZ-01 (Renzi) WY-AL (Cubin) AZ-08 (OPEN) PA-06 (Gerlach) CA-04 (Doolittle) WY-AL (Cubin) AZ-08 (OPEN) TX-22 (OPEN) TX-17...
With less than two weeks to go before the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the fall election season, there's never been a better time to take stock of the races that will determine partisan control of Congress beyond 2006. In some races, the same elements have been at play for...
Coverage and analysis of the Lieberman-Lamont primary results has likely consumed an entire national forest today, or at least a forest's worth of giga-bytes on the internet. But before the Crystal Ball turns its attention northward, we present a brief glimpse of the current midterm picture. The Election as it...
Just over one month ago, the Crystal Ball argued that a larger wave than currently existed at the time would have to build in order for Republicans to lose their congressional majorities. At the time, the race-by-race rather than national dynamic of competitive races pointed more towards a "micro-wave" than...
Yes, we know college basketball is a distant memory by now from the perspective of these hot summer months, but looking at the list of potentially competitive races beyond those listed in our Dirty Thirty, we can't help but be reminded of the perennial spectacle of bracket selection. Much as...
Just how perilously close are Republicans to losing their congressional majority in 2006? The way several independent observers and Democrats are talking and acting these days, you might guess the GOP's demise was all but a done deal. Only last month, veteran bipartisan polling team Thom Riehle and Lance Tarrance...
With upside-down congressional approval ratings showing few signs of rising from the depths anytime soon, 2006 promises to be one of the more volatile (and dare we say, anti-incumbent?) House election cycles in recent memory. So looking ahead to November, how best might Democrats and Republicans prepare to face this...
Fresh off the Superbowl, Americans are once again reminded that every once in a while, an underdog team can come back up from the depths, run the table, and pull off a remarkable victory. This year, congressional Democrats, ever-so-desperate to pick up the 15 seats they need to reclaim the...
In May, the Crystal Ball argued that the 2006 midterm elections would present a whole new opportunity for Democrats to nationalize the ethics charges mounting against Rep. Tom DeLay and to use "the Hammer" as a tool of their own for chipping away at the GOP majority. In light of...
Between 1934 and 1994, the party in charge of the presidency lost House seats in midterm congressional elections without fail. And for years, political scientists have elaborately laid out logical reasons for this to be the case: some have theorized that midterms serve as natural electoral "reflexes" to counterbalance strong...
At this point in a midterm cycle, the Crystal Ball would normally lead off its analysis of the House landscape with a discussion about prospects for six year itches, open seats and early money. But alas, we've come to accept that nothing's quite normal in Washington these days--and the fixation...
