Making Polls Work (Again)

An excerpt from G. Elliott Morris’s new history of polling

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature an excerpt from G. Elliott Morris’s new book, Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them. Morris is a data journalist at the Economist whose work has previously appeared in the Crystal Ball. In this excerpt, Morris addresses some of the...

Two Ways of Thinking about Election Predictions and What They Tell Us About 2018

There are differences in method, accuracy, and probability between quantitative forecasting and ratings-based handicapping

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two approaches to forecasting -- one formally statistical, one rigorous yet flexible handicapping -- produce different tools that we can use to evaluate the battle for control of the U.S. House in the 2018 midterms. -- The Crystal Ball and other political handicappers use...