Notes on the State of Politics

Developments in Alaska’s gubernatorial race make it the GOP’s best pick-up target, three ratings changes in the House, and newly-appointed Sen. Jon Kyl becomes an unusual Senate two-timer

Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the...

What Happened in the June 12 Primary

Maine experiments with ranked-choice voting, the Virginia GOP backs Stewart for Senate, and Sanford loses renomination in South Carolina

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: -- Maine became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as instant-runoff voting) in a statewide election. But this was not the first time that a state used a form of ranked voting or preferential voting. In the early...

Notes on the State of Politics: Senate Shenanigans in Alabama and Tennessee

Reactions to the Yellowhammer State’s runoff and the first 2018 Senate retirement comes in the Volunteer State

Roy Moore’s Rolling Tide There were no surprises in Alabama on Tuesday as former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) dispatched appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) by about 10 points, 55%-45%, in the state’s Republican primary runoff. Most of the final polls in the race showed a margin...

Initial 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings

Competitive races abound as GOP plays defense in many open seats

Those looking for electoral drama in the 2018 cycle should pay attention to the 38 gubernatorial races being held this year and next. In our initial ratings of these contests, more than half of them -- 20 of 38 -- start in the competitive Toss-up or Leans Republican/Democratic categories. That...

How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ from Presidential Elections

What recent history tells us about the likely size and makeup of next year’s electorate

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking off next week for the University of Virginia’s spring recess. We’ll be back on Thursday, March 16. -- The Editors With politicos everywhere turning their eyes to the still-distant 2018 midterm election, we thought it would be useful to review some of the...

2018 Governors: The Battle Lines for Drawing the Lines

Republicans retain a big redistricting advantage as 2020 census looms, but Democrats have opportunities to chip away at that power

Given the Democrats’ poor down-ballot performances in the Obama years, and the Republican dominance of redistricting following the GOP’s success in the 2010 midterm, it’s somewhat fitting that arguably the Democrats’ most marquee victory in 2016 will not help them in the redistricting battles to come after the 2020 census....