KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this...
Author: Geoffrey Skelley
A Failure to Launch? Kansas’ Republican Gubernatorial Contest and the History of Incumbent Governor Primary Performance
If results hold, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) will be the narrowest incumbent primary loser in history
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As of Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) trailed Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) 40.6%-40.5% in Kansas’ gubernatorial primary. If Colyer’s deficit holds, it would mark the first primary loss for an incumbent governor in 2018. -- If the final outcome is...
Senate Observations: Placing 2018 in the Context of Upper Chamber Elections Since 1913
Democrats face a difficult map but stand to benefit from being the non-presidential party
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- From 1914 to 2016, presidential cycles featured a higher rate of straight-ticket outcomes than midterm elections, with 74% of presidential-Senate results going for the same party in presidential years. Midterm cycles showed more splits, with just 61% of presidential-Senate results won by the same...
Mountain State Manchin-ations
The Democratic incumbent appears to be ahead in West Virginia’s Senate race, but Republicans remain overall favorites to control upper chamber
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is once again a small favorite in our ratings, moving from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in his race against state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). -- That ratings change leaves six Toss-ups on the Crystal Ball Senate map: Democrats are...
Three Republican Governors Face Increasingly Tough Election Contests
Ratings changes in Arizona, Illinois, and Iowa
KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Crystal Ball has three ratings changes in gubernatorial contests, all shifts in the Democrats’ direction: Arizona moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, Illinois moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Iowa moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. New ratings in Arizona,...
Never Say Die Senate Candidates: Don Blankenship Lost His Primary but Plans to Run in November Anyway
If he does, the former coal magnate will be just the latest in a long line of Senate primary losers to run in a general election
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Although he lost in West Virginia’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Don Blankenship (R) is actively seeking to run in the general election as the Constitution Party’s nominee. His attempt to run in November will likely involve a legal challenge to “sore loser” election...
Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats’ Direction
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin look more and more like Republican reaches
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Crystal Ball has new ratings in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin U.S. Senate contests, both in Democrats’ direction. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey’s (D) reelection bid moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic, while in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) race goes from Leans...
Virginia’s Busiest Federal Primary Day in Modern History
The main races to watch on June 12 are the Republican contest for U.S. Senate and the Democrats’ six-way race in VA-10
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With nine contested U.S. House primaries and one U.S. Senate primary, June 12 will be the busiest federal primary day in Virginia’s modern history, surpassing the seven total contests held in 2012 (one Senate, six House). -- In the Republican primary for Senate, Prince...
California Dreamin’: Carving the Golden State into Thirds
Examining the hypothetical political impact of dividing California into three states
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The “Cal 3” initiative is the latest in a long line of proposals to divide California into multiple states. This plan aims to carve up the Golden State into three new states. -- While the proposal has little chance of success, hypothetically the fragmentation...
Empire State of Mind: New York’s Simmering Democratic Primary for Governor
While Gov. Andrew Cuomo is a strong favorite, his renomination battle may prove to be one of the most interesting gubernatorial primaries in 2018
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: -- As he seeks a third term, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) is favored to win renomination in what could be a high-profile primary against actress and activist Cynthia Nixon (D). -- However, Cuomo often has upset the left and there may be a path for...
Exit Stage Left or Right: Midterm Retirements and Open Seats in the House from 1974 to 2018
Republicans already have many abandoned districts to defend this November. Are there more to come?
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- By multiple measures -- such as retirements, “pure” retirements, and open seats that must be defended -- this cycle’s GOP has one of the highest levels of exposure in the U.S. House of any presidential party dating back to 1974. -- Republicans already have...
Illinois Primary: Rauner Is Reeling
The Land of Lincoln’s gubernatorial contest now Leans Democratic
Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) endured a difficult night on Tuesday. Although he won his party’s primary to earn a reelection shot in November, the contest in some ways confirmed his overall weakness as the most endangered incumbent Republican governor facing the voters in 2018. As such, the Crystal Ball is...
The Modern History of Special Election Swing
PA-18 swung sharply against the president’s party. How does it compare to past House specials?
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Based on the two-party vote, Trump won PA-18 by 20.3 points in 2016 while losing the national popular vote by 2.2 percentage points, meaning the district’s lean was 22.5 points to the right of the nation as a whole. Conor Lamb’s (D) apparent victory...
The Low Success Rate of Independent and Third-Party Candidates in Senate Elections
The long odds against Craig O’Dear in Missouri
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Missouri independent candidate Craig O’Dear is running for U.S. Senate in 2018 but faces long odds of winning. -- Independent and third-party candidates tend to do poorly in most partisan elections, but they have a particularly poor track record in Senate contests. Only 11...
Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections since Trump Won the Presidency
KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: -- In 2013 elections, Democratic candidates ran behind Barack Obama’s 2012 two-party vote percentage by an average of 5.9 percentage points. A great Republican cycle in 2014 followed. In elections since December 2016, Republican candidates have run an average of 2.6 points behind Donald Trump’s...