KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: -- Democrats won the two-party popular vote in the House of Delegates 54.8%-45.2% but carried just 49 of 100 seats in the chamber. -- Adjusting for uncontested seats, Democrats won an estimated vote of 51.7% to the GOP’s 48.3% in the two-party vote. According to...
On Tuesday, now-former Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) officially resigned from the U.S. Senate following allegations of inappropriate behavior toward women. As we discussed in our last newsletter for 2017, Franken’s resignation means that Minnesota will hold a special election for Senate this coming November, which will take place at the...
The Crystal Ball will be away next week. We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan. 4. We wish you and your family Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. -- The Editors Sen. Al Franken’s (D) impending resignation due to sexual harassment allegations will create a vacancy in Minnesota’s Class II Senate seat,...
This coming Tuesday, Alabamians will go to the polls to decide their next U.S. senator in a rare December special election. While the Yellowhammer State is heavily Republican -- President Donald Trump carried it by 28 percentage points in 2016 -- the Senate contest is a Toss-up. The candidacy of...
While November’s political spotlight will shine brightest on the gubernatorial contest at the top of the Virginia ticket between former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), there will also be many interesting races down-ballot in the Old Dominion on Election Day. Not only...
The November of the year following a presidential election is always relatively quiet on the electoral front, with only regularly-scheduled statewide races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. With the Garden State’s contest looking like a safe Democratic pickup and Alabama’s special election for the U.S. Senate not happening...
In the midst of a grueling campaign for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, Alabama’s political sweet tea has acquired a distinctly sour taste. Appointed incumbent Sen. Luther Strange (R) finds himself in a vulnerable position against former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) in the party’s primary...
About one month after Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election, Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) announced a long-expected 2018 U.S. Senate bid against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who defeated Mandel 51%-45% in Ohio’s 2012 Senate contest. Should both politicians win their party nominations -- at present, each appears favored...
The 2017 Alabama special election for the U.S. Senate kicks off with party primaries this coming Tuesday (Aug. 15). Should one or both parties have no candidate win a majority that day, a primary runoff will take place on Sept. 26. Both sides have crowded fields, but given the dark...
In 2008 Barack Obama carried Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to win the Old Dominion. Obama’s victory broke a run of 10 consecutive Republican victories in the commonwealth, and 13 of 14 going back to 1952. The 2008 presidential election...
With the Virginia primary less than a week away, the eyes of the political world are now focused on the Old Dominion. Considering the early polling in New Jersey’s gubernatorial general election contest, where Phil Murphy (D) starts as the favorite over Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) after both won...
In the immediate aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many observers understandably focused on the numerous places that swung from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Because many of these areas congregated in swing states within the Rust Belt and Midwest, they played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory, as shown...
On Monday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) moved to end debate on the nomination of Gov. Terry Branstad (R-IA) as the next U.S. ambassador to China. While the exact timeline is uncertain -- Democrats could try to stall the appointment -- Branstad’s confirmation for the diplomatic post is expected...
On election night in November, exit polls provided the first insight into how different demographic groups voted. But months later, other richer data sets are being released, and they provide researchers with new information about the election and the voters that participated in it. One such tool is the Cooperative...
Until former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) shook up the Democratic nomination contest in early January, the Republican field had generated most of the early buzz in Virginia’s 2017 gubernatorial race. But while some eyes have turned to the brewing battle between Perriello and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), there is...
