At the end of January, the Crystal Ball examined the latest state-by-state unemployment numbers and what they could mean for the presidential election. The fact that the nation’s economic difficulties have hit certain places harder than others could have a real impact on what we anticipate will be a close...

We all think we know which states are the pivotal players in the Electoral College. The Crystal Ball’s most recent look at the map showed that there are seven “Super Swing States:” Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. How these states vote on Nov. 6 will likely...

Now that Mitt Romney is the presumptive Republican nominee, attention has turned to his impending selection of a vice presidential choice. There has already been so much VeepWatch coverage one might think the deadline for Romney’s pick is measured in days or even hours. We here at the Crystal Ball...

Now that Rick Santorum has suspended his campaign, Mitt Romney has essentially wrapped up the Republican presidential nomination. Although Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul remain in the GOP race, Santorum was Romney’s last major opponent, having won 11 states in the Midwest, the South and elsewhere. However, as shown in...

Correction: This article originally omitted James K. Polk, who won the presidency in 1844 despite losing his home state of Tennessee by 0.1 percentage points to Henry Clay. If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, he may face an uphill battle in winning the presidency because of an obscure historical oddity:...

Back in September, the Crystal Ball examined the possible electoral impact of state-by-state unemployment figures because, after all, presidents are elected in 51 individual battles (50 states plus Washington, D.C.) With the January jobs report to be released this Friday, we thought we would once again examine the state-by-state numbers,...

While Mitt Romney may very well be on his way to winning the GOP nomination, he is not completely out of the woods yet. With so many primaries and caucuses left to be decided, it is perfectly possible that other candidates will win some of the remaining states as long...

With tonight's agonizingly close race in the Iowa caucuses, we decided to look back at other close primary calls through the years: 1972 Dems: May 2, Ohio – Humphrey 41.2, McGovern 39.6. 1976 Dems: April 6, Wisconsin - Carter 36.6, Udall 35.6; May 11, Nebraska - Church 38.5, Carter 37.6;...

Much remains to be decided in determining the dramatis personae in next November’s 57th production of the American presidential election. Will it be Obama vs. Romney? Will it be Obama vs. Gingrich? Or could Obama face off against, as Rhodes Cook recently discussed, someone else entirely? Those questions will be...