Will Trump Succeed?

Assessing his 2022 record and 2024 chances

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election. -- The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections. -- But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in...

What Happens After November 3?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The most critical moments in the 2020 election will come after Election Day, Nov. 3 -- Millions of mail ballots induced by the coronavirus will delay final results in some states for several weeks after the election. -- Congress is most likely to certify...

The Cleaner “Smoke-Filled Room”

Dear Readers: We're pleased to welcome Gerald Pomper as a Crystal Ball contributor this week. Pomper is a widely-published and respected political scientist. In this piece, he explores how the Democratic Party's consolidation around Joe Biden is somewhat reminiscent of the old, insider-dominated method of selecting presidential nominees. Pomper is...