A Deeper Dig into the Granite

The Trump, Haley, and Biden coalitions in the New Hampshire primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE —With a lull in the primary calendar, we thought we’d take a closer look at last week’s New Hampshire primary. —Nikki Haley’s town-level victories were confined almost exclusively to places that Joe Biden carried in the 2020 general election. —Although Biden showed some weakness in a...

A 2023 Election Mega-Preview

Places to watch in Kentucky, Mississippi, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The key races we’re watching next week are gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi, the state legislative contests in Virginia, an abortion-related ballot issue in Ohio, and a state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania. -- We continue to favor incumbent Govs. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 13, 2023

Reichert gives Washington GOP a real gubernatorial recruit; retreads abound in House races

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Today, we’re taking a quick look at gubernatorial races in Washington and New Hampshire, as well as a flood of losing 2022 House candidates seeking redemption in 2024....

A Brief History of Electoral College Bias

GOP had big edge in 2020, although it has bounced around in the postwar period

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The tipping point state in a presidential election is the state that gets the winning candidate over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. -- In the last two presidential elections, the tipping point state was Wisconsin. -- In the postwar era, the tipping...