Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The pending resignation of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R, CA-20) and Rep. Patrick McHenry’s (R, NC-10) retirement announcement are...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As the calendar year draws nearer to a close, more House members have looked towards the exit. -- In Michigan, Rep. Dan Kildee (D, MI-8) would have been favored for a seventh term, but without him, his Biden +2 seat moves into the Toss-up...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) decision not to run for reelection next year pushes our rating for the West Virginia Senate race from Leans Republican to Safe Republican. -- Next door, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) is forgoing reelection in her Biden +7 seat to...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After North Carolina’s then-Democratic state Supreme Court blocked a GOP congressional gerrymander last cycle, the new court re-opened the door to a Republican gerrymander for 2024. -- A new map that legislative Republicans approved yesterday could up their advantage in the state’s currently evenly-divided 7-7...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- On Saturday, Louisiana voters will go to the polls to begin selecting a replacement for term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA). -- In the all-party primary, state Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) has been the frontrunner for much of the campaign and will likely advance...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The McCarthy fallout On one side of the Capitol yesterday, now-Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) became the Senate’s newest member. Appointed to replace the late Sen....
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Jersey Senate: Gold bars, cash in envelopes -- and a primary challenge In 1999, then-former Gov. Edwin Edwards (D-LA), who had spent a not-insignificant...
Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball team will be reacting to last night’s first Republican presidential debate on a new episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Vermont and California...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decisions last year, seven states have held abortion-related ballot issues, and abortion rights advocates have won all seven contests. -- In Kansas and Michigan, the pro-abortion rights side broadly outperformed the winning Democratic nominees for governor. -- In Ohio,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The West Coast states have all been Democratic-leaning in nearly every recent presidential election. -- One exception was Oregon, which leaned slightly right of the nation in 2000, although it is now a solidly blue state. -- Looking nationally, Biden was the best-performing recent...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020. -- In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans....
Dear Readers: Please join the Center for Politics and the Jefferson Council for the University of Virginia next Tuesday (April 25) at 7 p.m. for an evening with Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist George Will. He will be speaking at Minor Hall Room 125 on the Grounds of the University of Virginia....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In one of the biggest elections of the calendar year, a Democratic-aligned justice appears favored in next week’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court election. But that was also true in 2019, when a Republican-aligned justice pulled an upset. -- Democrats often underperform in such races...
Dear Readers: Tonight’s event with Bill Kristol and David Ramadan has been postponed, although we are hoping to reschedule it for some time in the spring. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common. -- Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead...
