Notes on the State of the Primaries: June 8, 2022

Rating changes in Iowa, Oregon House races; highlights from a busy Tuesday night of primaries

Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 6 p.m eastern for a free, virtual panel featuring top analysts and experts previewing the beginning of the House’s Jan. 6 Select Committee’s public hearings. The virtual event will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/jan6committeehearings. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will host the...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 18, 2022

Pennsylvania governor moves to Leans Democratic following primary; other reactions to Tuesday night’s results

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The race for the Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination remains uncalled, and it will remain a Toss-up in our ratings...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022

New York’s looming House specials; a nationalized West Virginia primary; Nebraska governor

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New York: No map, but 2 special elections The last few months have not been especially kind to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Shortly after she...

Breaking Down the DeSantimander

New Florida map should allow Republicans to win 20 of 28 seats in nation’s third-largest state

Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event on Thursday, April 28 with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the United States...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 30, 2022

Two more looming House special elections; redistricting updates

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Special elections imminent in Nebraska, Texas With the congressional primary season schedule already poised to start heating up in May, 2 new elections will soon...

Redistricting: What’s Left?

Looking at the 5 states (and 59 districts) that have yet to be finalized

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The national redistricting picture is nearly complete, as only 5 more states -- FL, LA, MO, NH, and OH -- have yet to enact congressional maps. -- While Democrats are currently up in our running House tally, the plans from those 5 remaining states...

Breaking Down North Carolina and Pennsylvania’s New Maps

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- North Carolina and Pennsylvania are 2 closely-divided states where the redistricting process this cycle ultimately fell to Democratic-controlled state courts. -- Democrats seem likely to gain at least 1 seat out of North Carolina, although the relatively favorable map that they got will only...

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 23, 2022

Washington a GOP Senate sleeper; rating Rhode Island; special House elections in MN-1 & CA-22; looking for Democratic slippage in South Texas

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Patty Murray (D-WA) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Washington Senate to Likely Democratic While...

New House Ratings: Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota, and Washington

Only 9 states have not finished their maps

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Four more states finalized their House maps over the past week or so, bringing the total number of states with completed congressional maps to 41. -- Maps in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Washington did not change much at all, while Kansas Republicans targeted the state’s...

Notes on the State of Politics: Nov. 18, 2021

Redistricting action out West; looking back on Sen. Patrick Leahy’s career

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Redistricting: Four western states pass maps Since the Crystal Ball’s redistricting update last week, a few more states have enacted or advanced maps -- a...

Less Than A Year Out: A Redistricting Update

Going over new maps in NC, TX, and other states

Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 7 p.m. for the premiere of Common Grounds?, a new documentary produced by University of Virginia Center for Politics interns that brings together students from across UVA to discuss their political beliefs. The premiere will be followed by a panel discussion with the makers of...

Notes on the State of Politics: September 29, 2021

OR finishes redistricting, with CO, ME, and NE close behind; many other states release drafts

Dear Readers: Later this week, the UVA Center for Politics is hosting several events that we’d encourage anyone interested in politics or history to attend. All three of the following events are free and open to the public. Tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 30), Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will give...

Notes on the State of Politics: August 4, 2021

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors OH-11 and OH-15: Wins for Clinton and Trump? In two special elections last night, Ohio voters in two congressional districts went to...

Republican Governors Draw Primary Challengers, But History Suggests They Face Long Odds

Checking in on gubernatorial races in Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, and elsewhere

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With months to go until the 2022 gubernatorial primaries, several Republican governors have drawn notable primary challengers. -- Still, it is relatively rare for sitting governors to lose renomination, and all GOP incumbents appear to be favored in their primaries. -- Most, though not...