States of Play: Virginia

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. for our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. In addition to breaking down the election with just days to go, we’ll be joined by members of the Decision Desk HQ team, which will be independently reporting results Tuesday night. They’ll give us...

States of Play: Wisconsin

Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series -- in which we'll be taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election -- we look at Wisconsin. In a universe without the COVID-19 pandemic, this bright purple state would now be...

House Primaries: A Little More Action This Year Than Usual

If only one more incumbent loses, 2020 will match 1980’s high watermark for a non-redistricting year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As five sitting members of the House have already lost primaries -- and some states have yet to vote -- 2020 could see the most primary losers in a non-redistricting cycle since 1980. -- The circumstances of some of this year’s primary losers are...

VA-5: Riggleman Loss Opens Door to a Competitive Race

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep. Denver Riggleman (R, VA-5) lost a bizarre, drive-through convention held over the weekend. -- We moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican as a result. Table 1: House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating VA-5 Open (Riggleman, R) Likely Republican...

Republican Presidential Primary Turnout: Trump vs Bush

With higher turnout, 2020's primary electorate looks familiar

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Compared to 2004, another year that featured a Republican president in a lightly-contested primary and a contested Democratic primary race, turnout has been up across the board. -- 63% of the votes cast in this year’s primaries have been on the Democratic side, which,...

Turnout in the 2020 Democratic Primary: Some Clues for the Fall

In the primary, blue-trending areas see higher turnout, power Joe Biden's strength; erosion for Democrats continues in some rural areas in the South

Dear Readers: Next Thursday (April 2) from noon to 1 p.m. eastern, the Crystal Ball will be hosting a briefing to assess the state of play in the 2020 election via Zoom. Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman will discuss...

The Electoral College: Maine and Nebraska’s Crucial Battleground Votes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Nationalization has pushed urban and rural areas apart; Maine and Nebraska are no exceptions to this trend, and their unique electoral vote allocation systems are highlighting that division. -- The Omaha-based NE-2 supported Republicans in the past two presidential elections, but by decreasing margins,...

Wisconsin: 2020’s Ground Zero

A closer look at the state that may once again decide the presidency; GOP narrowly favored in NJ-2 following Van Drew party switch

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A perpetual swing state, Wisconsin seems poised to play a pivotal role in next year’s presidential election. Milwaukee will be especially prominent as the host of the 2020 Democratic National Convention. -- With a special election in Wisconsin’s 7th District on the horizon, we...

Handicapping North Carolina’s New Districts

Democrats likely to net two seats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With a new congressional map in place, Democrats seem poised to flip two seats in the Tar Heel State, one in the Raleigh area and another in the Greensboro area. -- Since his election in 2014, Rep. Mark Walker (R, NC-6) has quickly climbed...

Shades of Alabama in Louisiana’s Gubernatorial Runoff

The similarities between the Deep South Democratic victories by John Bel Edwards and Doug Jones

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In his narrow reelection win on Saturday, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) replicated some of the voting patterns displayed in Sen. Doug Jones’ (D-AL) special election victory two years ago. -- Both Edwards and Jones won statewide races despite each carrying only a single...

In Close Runoff, Democrats Try to Finish Strong in Louisiana

And the presidential shades of Virginia’s state-level results last week

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In advance of Saturday’s runoff gubernatorial election in Louisiana, the data point to Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) as a small favorite. -- We’re moving our rating there from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, but even if Edwards holds on, it may not be by...

Louisiana Governor: Nationalized Trends Emerge as Runoff Looms

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As a result of Saturday’s jungle primary, the Crystal Ball has changed its rating for the Louisiana gubernatorial race to Toss-up from Leans Democratic. -- In a runoff against businessman Eddie Rispone (R), Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) must turn out more black voters...

Louisiana 2019: Welcome to the Jungle (Primary)

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) defied the partisan lean of his state in 2015, but he will have to navigate an increasingly partisan electorate to win again. He’ll need Republican support, but he also must energize black voters. -- Louisiana’s unique jungle primary has...

Republicans Hunt for Safer Ground in Shifting Southern California

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- San Diego County, once a linchpin of the GOP’s Golden State coalition, now votes reliably Democratic, like most other counties with large populations. -- It’s rare that former members of Congress switch districts to primary incumbents, but political realignment in San Diego has facilitated...

NC-9: West to the Left, East to the Right

Dear Readers: We are delighted to welcome the newest member of the Crystal Ball and Center for Politics team, J. Miles Coleman, who started working with us on Monday. Many readers may already be familiar with Miles’ work on Twitter, where he has built a following thanks to his wonderful...