Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 7, 2023

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The pending resignation of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R, CA-20) and Rep. Patrick McHenry’s (R, NC-10) retirement announcement are...

The (Continuing) Congressional Retirement Flood

As more vacancies arise, central Michigan, Long Island races come into focus

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As the calendar year draws nearer to a close, more House members have looked towards the exit. -- In Michigan, Rep. Dan Kildee (D, MI-8) would have been favored for a seventh term, but without him, his Biden +2 seat moves into the Toss-up...

The Congressional Retirement Flood

How Manchin, Spanberger, and other recent candidate declarations have (or have not) changed the competitive landscape

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) decision not to run for reelection next year pushes our rating for the West Virginia Senate race from Leans Republican to Safe Republican. -- Next door, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) is forgoing reelection in her Biden +7 seat to...

North Carolina Redistricting: Republicans Bring Out Their Golden Goose (again)

With new map, NC Republicans are poised for redistricting windfall

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After North Carolina’s then-Democratic state Supreme Court blocked a GOP congressional gerrymander last cycle, the new court re-opened the door to a Republican gerrymander for 2024. -- A new map that legislative Republicans approved yesterday could up their advantage in the state’s currently evenly-divided 7-7...

Louisiana 2023: The Road to Saturday’s Primary

With a November runoff expected, some context for this weekend’s jungle primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- On Saturday, Louisiana voters will go to the polls to begin selecting a replacement for term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA). -- In the all-party primary, state Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) has been the frontrunner for much of the campaign and will likely advance...

Notes on the State of Politics: Oct. 4, 2023

The demise of Kevin McCarthy; Alabama House rating change becomes official; honoring Doug Wilder

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The McCarthy fallout On one side of the Capitol yesterday, now-Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) became the Senate’s newest member. Appointed to replace the late Sen....

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 26, 2023

The Menendez mess in New Jersey; rating changes in a couple of open, blue House seats

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Jersey Senate: Gold bars, cash in envelopes -- and a primary challenge In 1999, then-former Gov. Edwin Edwards (D-LA), who had spent a not-insignificant...

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part Two

Comparing ballot issues to partisan races in VT, CA, MT, KY, and state halves

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball team will be reacting to last night’s first Republican presidential debate on a new episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Vermont and California...

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part One

Comparing ballot issues to partisan races in KS, OH, and MI

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decisions last year, seven states have held abortion-related ballot issues, and abortion rights advocates have won all seven contests. -- In Kansas and Michigan, the pro-abortion rights side broadly outperformed the winning Democratic nominees for governor. -- In Ohio,...

Leaning Into State Trends: The West Coast

Also some larger observations on how all the states have trended

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The West Coast states have all been Democratic-leaning in nearly every recent presidential election. -- One exception was Oregon, which leaned slightly right of the nation in 2000, although it is now a solidly blue state. -- Looking nationally, Biden was the best-performing recent...

Leaning Into State Trends: The Midwest and Interior West

The two regions have four Biden-won states that will be key in 2024

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020. -- In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans....

Leaning Into State Trends: The Northeast and Greater South

Dear Readers: Please join the Center for Politics and the Jefferson Council for the University of Virginia next Tuesday (April 25) at 7 p.m. for an evening with Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist George Will. He will be speaking at Minor Hall Room 125 on the Grounds of the University of Virginia....

What to Watch for in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race

Some key counties to keep track of in next week’s marquee judicial race

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In one of the biggest elections of the calendar year, a Democratic-aligned justice appears favored in next week’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court election. But that was also true in 2019, when a Republican-aligned justice pulled an upset. -- Democrats often underperform in such races...

Notes on the State of Politics: February 22, 2023

Wisconsin’s key state Supreme Court race; House back to full strength, but not for long

Dear Readers: Tonight’s event with Bill Kristol and David Ramadan has been postponed, although we are hoping to reschedule it for some time in the spring. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her...

The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting

Over two decades, double-digit overperformances have become far less common

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common. -- Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead...