Notes on the State of Politics: Nov. 18, 2021

Redistricting action out West; looking back on Sen. Patrick Leahy’s career

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Redistricting: Four western states pass maps Since the Crystal Ball’s redistricting update last week, a few more states have enacted or advanced maps -- a...

Less Than A Year Out: A Redistricting Update

Going over new maps in NC, TX, and other states

Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 7 p.m. for the premiere of Common Grounds?, a new documentary produced by University of Virginia Center for Politics interns that brings together students from across UVA to discuss their political beliefs. The premiere will be followed by a panel discussion with the makers of...

Notes on the State of Politics: September 29, 2021

OR finishes redistricting, with CO, ME, and NE close behind; many other states release drafts

Dear Readers: Later this week, the UVA Center for Politics is hosting several events that we’d encourage anyone interested in politics or history to attend. All three of the following events are free and open to the public. Tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 30), Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will give...

Notes on the State of Politics: August 4, 2021

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors OH-11 and OH-15: Wins for Clinton and Trump? In two special elections last night, Ohio voters in two congressional districts went to...

Republican Governors Draw Primary Challengers, But History Suggests They Face Long Odds

Checking in on gubernatorial races in Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, and elsewhere

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With months to go until the 2022 gubernatorial primaries, several Republican governors have drawn notable primary challengers. -- Still, it is relatively rare for sitting governors to lose renomination, and all GOP incumbents appear to be favored in their primaries. -- Most, though not...

Did Scandal Cost North Carolina Democrats a Senate Seat?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In North Carolina’s hotly contested Senate race last year, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) narrowly won reelection against a scandal-plagued opponent, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D-NC). -- Had Cunningham’s candidacy not been weighed down by a personal affair, he may have still lost. Indeed,...

How Mid-Decade Redistrictings Saved the Democratic House Majority

Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy: The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. Next Thursday,...

2022 Gubernatorial Races: A Baseline

Aside from Maryland, no statehouses are initially favored to flip -- but surprises are surely coming

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 38 states will see gubernatorial races over the next two years; Democrats currently hold 18 of the seats that will be contested while the GOP holds 20. -- Maryland, where popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is term-limited, will be hard for Republicans to hold....

Virginia and New Jersey Governors 2021: A First Look

In blue states, Democrats could match milestones and break curses

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virginia Democrats are trying to win three consecutive gubernatorial races, a feat the party has not accomplished since the 1980s. -- Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) is the favorite for his state’s Democratic nomination, though he faces a diverse field. -- In a move...

Moving Past Impeachment: Trump Acquitted (Again)

Dear Readers: Less than a month into the Biden presidency, both parties are looking to the next election cycle. But before either side can be successful, they will each undoubtedly do some internal soul-searching. At 6:30 p.m. this evening, the Center for Politics will host a panel called Warring Factions,...

The House: As 2020’s Final Contests Settle, Vacancies Arise

Look for House seat openings in Ohio, New Mexico to come up soon

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With the race for NY-22 settled, 2020’s House elections may finally be fully in the rearview mirror, though IA-2’s results will be reviewed by Congress. -- Before this week, we rated two special elections in Louisiana as safe for either party; with a new...

2020’s Crossover Districts

Only a handful of House Democrats and Republicans represent turf won by the other party’s presidential nominee

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 16 members of the House hold districts that voted for the other party’s presidential nominee in 2020. -- Many Biden-district Republicans are from racially diverse areas, and they often came out on the winning end of rematches. -- Democrats held several Trump seats in...

2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings

On a potentially limited playing field, both parties look to expand past their current 50 seats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans will be defending more Senate seats than Democrats in 2022, but both sides have some potential pickup opportunities -- though a large gain for either party seems unlikely. -- Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) would have been an overwhelming favorite to win a third...

Coalition Shifts in Senate Races: SC, KY, IL

Winning maps by long-serving senators illustrate broader changes in the nation’s voting patterns

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The reelection victories of three long-serving senators illustrate some of the nation’s political shifts. -- Despite a well-funded Democratic challenge, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) held on in large part because of the lack of ticket splitting in his red state. -- As of this...

Wisconsin: Decisive Again in 2020

In a state that's seen major electoral shifts, the stasis of some areas was also notable this year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Once again, Wisconsin appears to be the tipping point state in the Electoral College, though its 10 electoral votes are back in the Democratic column this year. -- In 2016, Donald Trump made major inroads in western Wisconsin. Despite coming up short statewide, his...