2024 Governors Races: A First Look

And an updated word on Mississippi

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up. -- The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats. -- If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in...

The 2023 Governor Races

Democrats retain a slight edge in Kentucky, while Republicans favored in neighboring Deep South states

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While it’s easy to begin looking towards the 2024 election cycle, 3 states will have gubernatorial contests this year. -- In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear remains personally popular, but he will be running in a red state with a large GOP bench. --...

Notes on the State of North Carolina

And a quick word on the VA-4 special

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away through the end of year. We wish all of you Happy Holidays, and we will be back the first week of January. Join us on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. for an exclusive first look at our upcoming documentary on the events...

Georgia Runoff to Leans Democratic

Trump forces in danger of yet another Peach State setback

Dear Readers: Join us Wednesday at 2 p.m. eastern for a Twitter Spaces featuring J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of the Crystal Ball along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley in which we’ll recap Tuesday’s Georgia runoff and tie a bow on the 2022 election. If...

2022’s Split Ticket States

Dear Readers: The Center for Politics at UVA will hold its 24th annual American Democracy Conference tonight starting at 6 p.m. Join us virtually at: https://livestream.com/tavco/adc2022 The conference will feature a pair of panels focusing on what happened in the 2022 election and looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election....

The Governors: Georgia, Florida Move Further Toward Republicans

One week out, rating changes in favor of 2 Sun Belt GOP governors

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A couple of high-profile gubernatorial races move further toward Republicans. -- In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appears positioned to win his rematch with Stacey Abrams (D), probably without a runoff. -- In Florida, the questions are more about the size of Gov. Ron...

The Senate: Race for Majority Remains a Toss-up as 2024 Looms

Checking in on the Senate with less than 2 weeks to go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- It will take some time to assess any possible fallout from the Pennsylvania Senate debate on Tuesday night. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) very clearly struggled. -- Early voting has begun in our pair of Senate Toss-ups, Georgia and Nevada, with inconclusive signals. --...

House Rating Changes: RGV versus RCV

Two House rating changes, both in favor of 2022 special election winners

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each area has key idiosyncrasies....

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 28, 2022

Contests for governor in MI, PA look more secure for Democrats

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA Open (Wolf, D) Leans Democratic Likely...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: Sept. 21, 2022

Senators and governors see smooth sailing in primaries, House members not as much

Dear Readers: Please join us, virtually, for a couple of special Center for Politics events this week. Today (Wednesday, Sept. 21) from 4 p.m. to 5:30 p.m., former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Peter Prindiville, a non-resident fellow at the Stanford Constitutional Law Center, will discuss their new book, The Constitution...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: Sept. 14, 2022

New England contests conclude the 2022 primary calendar; Rating change in NH-1

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our new “Politics is Everything” podcast, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik talked to Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and a Washington Post columnist, about the mixed signals in this year’s election and some of the advantages Republicans retain despite some...

2022’s (Potential) Split Ticket States

Voters picking different parties for Senate and governor is on the decline, but there will be at least some mixed decisions

Dear Readers: We all know democracy is in crisis, but what can we do to fix it? Politics Is Everything is a new podcast from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosted by Carah Ong Whaley, Kyle Kondik, and other members of the Center for Politics team....

Notes on the State of the Primaries: August 17, 2022

Recapping primaries in 3 western states; WA-SEN moves back to Safe Democratic

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Today we are taking a look at the results in 3 western states -- Alaska and Wyoming voted last night, while Washington state recently finalized the results from its...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2022

Previewing next week’s crowded primary slate, and looking back on Maryland

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Below, we’re taking a quick look back at last week’s Maryland primary and then a look ahead at next Tuesday’s packed primary calendar, one of the biggest of the...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: June 8, 2022

Rating changes in Iowa, Oregon House races; highlights from a busy Tuesday night of primaries

Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 6 p.m eastern for a free, virtual panel featuring top analysts and experts previewing the beginning of the House’s Jan. 6 Select Committee’s public hearings. The virtual event will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/jan6committeehearings. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will host the...