Leaning Into State Trends: The West Coast

Also some larger observations on how all the states have trended

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The West Coast states have all been Democratic-leaning in nearly every recent presidential election. -- One exception was Oregon, which leaned slightly right of the nation in 2000, although it is now a solidly blue state. -- Looking nationally, Biden was the best-performing recent...

Leaning Into State Trends: The Midwest and Interior West

The two regions have four Biden-won states that will be key in 2024

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020. -- In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans....

Leaning Into State Trends: The Northeast and Greater South

Dear Readers: Please join the Center for Politics and the Jefferson Council for the University of Virginia next Tuesday (April 25) at 7 p.m. for an evening with Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist George Will. He will be speaking at Minor Hall Room 125 on the Grounds of the University of Virginia....

What to Watch for in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race

Some key counties to keep track of in next week’s marquee judicial race

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In one of the biggest elections of the calendar year, a Democratic-aligned justice appears favored in next week’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court election. But that was also true in 2019, when a Republican-aligned justice pulled an upset. -- Democrats often underperform in such races...

Notes on the State of Politics: February 22, 2023

Wisconsin’s key state Supreme Court race; House back to full strength, but not for long

Dear Readers: Tonight’s event with Bill Kristol and David Ramadan has been postponed, although we are hoping to reschedule it for some time in the spring. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her...

The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting

Over two decades, double-digit overperformances have become far less common

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common. -- Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead...

2024 Governors Races: A First Look

And an updated word on Mississippi

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up. -- The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats. -- If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in...

The 2023 Governor Races

Democrats retain a slight edge in Kentucky, while Republicans favored in neighboring Deep South states

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While it’s easy to begin looking towards the 2024 election cycle, 3 states will have gubernatorial contests this year. -- In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear remains personally popular, but he will be running in a red state with a large GOP bench. --...

Notes on the State of North Carolina

And a quick word on the VA-4 special

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away through the end of year. We wish all of you Happy Holidays, and we will be back the first week of January. Join us on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. for an exclusive first look at our upcoming documentary on the events...

Georgia Runoff to Leans Democratic

Trump forces in danger of yet another Peach State setback

Dear Readers: Join us Wednesday at 2 p.m. eastern for a Twitter Spaces featuring J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of the Crystal Ball along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley in which we’ll recap Tuesday’s Georgia runoff and tie a bow on the 2022 election. If...

2022’s Split Ticket States

Dear Readers: The Center for Politics at UVA will hold its 24th annual American Democracy Conference tonight starting at 6 p.m. Join us virtually at: https://livestream.com/tavco/adc2022 The conference will feature a pair of panels focusing on what happened in the 2022 election and looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election....

The Governors: Georgia, Florida Move Further Toward Republicans

One week out, rating changes in favor of 2 Sun Belt GOP governors

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A couple of high-profile gubernatorial races move further toward Republicans. -- In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appears positioned to win his rematch with Stacey Abrams (D), probably without a runoff. -- In Florida, the questions are more about the size of Gov. Ron...

The Senate: Race for Majority Remains a Toss-up as 2024 Looms

Checking in on the Senate with less than 2 weeks to go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- It will take some time to assess any possible fallout from the Pennsylvania Senate debate on Tuesday night. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) very clearly struggled. -- Early voting has begun in our pair of Senate Toss-ups, Georgia and Nevada, with inconclusive signals. --...

House Rating Changes: RGV versus RCV

Two House rating changes, both in favor of 2022 special election winners

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each area has key idiosyncrasies....

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 28, 2022

Contests for governor in MI, PA look more secure for Democrats

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA Open (Wolf, D) Leans Democratic Likely...