Introduction: The 2018 Midterm Election Forecasts

Editor’s Note: In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting the 2018 midterm election, we have been featuring models from respected political scientists that aim to project the net seat change in the U.S. House of Representatives. So far, we’ve...

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections

The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical...

Can President Obama Survive His Economic Record?

The Crystal Ball is pleased this week to feature an essay from Prof. James E. Campbell, UB Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University at Buffalo, SUNY. Prof. Campbell is one of the nation’s foremost experts in election modeling; he developed the trial-heat and economy presidential election forecasting model...

The 2008 Election in Perspective

The Unexpected Wall Street Meltdown Election

Some political analysts have interpreted the 2008 presidential election as an ordinary retrospective election. With a very unpopular Republican incumbent presiding over unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a weak economy, 2008 appeared to be a Democratic year. As the often insightful Larry Sabato put it in his recent...

Getting More Out of the Polls

Political observers have become more sophisticated in their reading of polls in recent years. They know enough now not to read too much into summer polls. Poll leaders in June are not any more likely to win than their opponents who trail them in the summer polls. By the time...

RESPONSE: ANYBODY’S BALL GAME

In their examination of the fundamentals and the polls to this point in the 2008 election, my esteemed colleagues Alan Abramowitz, Tom Mann, and Larry Sabato indicate that they believe that the presidential election is essentially a done deal. As they see the 2008 story developing, Barack Obama will win...