KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasting Models have an excellent record for accurate predictions of the presidential elections going back to 1992. -- Forecasting models depend on applying electoral history to the current election, but 2020 is historically abnormal (at least, in the period...
Editor’s Note: In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting the 2018 midterm election, we have been featuring models from respected political scientists that aim to project the net seat change in the U.S. House of Representatives. So far, we’ve...
The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical...
With the dust settling from one of the most brutal and nasty presidential campaigns in modern American history and with the late vote returns creeping up to a final count, it is time to take stock of the presidential election forecasts offered initially to readers of the Crystal Ball website...
Dear Readers: Over the past couple of months, we’ve been running a series on election forecasting models. James E. Campbell, who has been compiling these forecasts for us, offers some concluding thoughts on the series below. -- The Editors Modern presidential election campaigns generate a massive amount of news. This...
Dear Readers: This is the first of a multi-part series on the political science forecasts of the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. We’ll be featuring forecasts from nine different individuals and/or groups this year, which James E. Campbell is assembling as part of a project for PS:...
The Crystal Ball is pleased this week to feature an essay from Prof. James E. Campbell, UB Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University at Buffalo, SUNY. Prof. Campbell is one of the nation’s foremost experts in election modeling; he developed the trial-heat and economy presidential election forecasting model...
Some political analysts have interpreted the 2008 presidential election as an ordinary retrospective election. With a very unpopular Republican incumbent presiding over unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a weak economy, 2008 appeared to be a Democratic year. As the often insightful Larry Sabato put it in his recent...
Political observers have become more sophisticated in their reading of polls in recent years. They know enough now not to read too much into summer polls. Poll leaders in June are not any more likely to win than their opponents who trail them in the summer polls. By the time...
In their examination of the fundamentals and the polls to this point in the 2008 election, my esteemed colleagues Alan Abramowitz, Tom Mann, and Larry Sabato indicate that they believe that the presidential election is essentially a done deal. As they see the 2008 story developing, Barack Obama will win...
