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Author: John R. Petrocik and Daron R. Shaw

How Republicans could hold the House

Higher turnout historically does not guide outcomes, and lack of 2016 GOP surge may limit 2018’s GOP decline

By John R. Petrocik and Daron R. ShawPosted

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- There is no systematic relationship between the turnout rate and the Democratic Party’s (or the Republican Party’s) share of the two-party congressional vote. -- Midterms often feature a decline for the presidential party after a surge in the House in the presidential year. But...