Clinton over the hump, and Trump gets a bump

The state of the race after Clinton makes it official

(PHILADELPHIA) -- After Donald Trump picked Mike Pence to be his running mate two weeks ago -- that feels like two months ago, right? -- we suggested that Trump could end up taking at least a temporary lead because of the convention bounce that presidential candidates typically get after their...

Libertarians Should Have Their Best Presidential Election Ever

But that is not necessarily saying much

While presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has seemingly done a better-than-expected job of uniting the Republican rank-and-file after dispatching his presidential rivals, he continues to face elite opposition from some GOP leaders and opinion-makers. Rumors of a third-party presidential bid designed to give #NeverTrump Republicans an option continue even...

Indiana: #NeverTrump’s Last Stand?

Cruz hopes for Wisconsin repeat in a state that’s more open to voting Trump

One could not be blamed for looking at the Republican primary results over the past 10 days and questioning how someone could stop Donald Trump from being the Republican nominee. But a look at the delegate math suggests that the race is not over yet. As we laid out after...

House 2016: How a Democratic Wave Could Happen

More than a dozen rating changes, almost all favoring Democrats

Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District, which forms a misshapen U linking Greater Philadelphia in the east to the outskirts of Lancaster and Reading to its west and north, provides a vivid example of the challenges Democrats face on the current U.S. House map. It is a district that Democrats won in...

On (from) Wisconsin

Badger State voters opt to prolong both parties’ nominating contests

Wisconsin’s state motto is “Forward.” On Tuesday night, the Badger State’s voters uttered it as a command to both parties’ nominating contests. Instead of voting to bring the nominating season closer to a conclusion by backing Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, the two current leaders, Wisconsin strongly supported Bernie Sanders...

Assessing Trump’s path to 1,237

A look at the remaining contests shows how he could get there

About a month ago, after Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary and all of its delegates, we headlined a piece “The Hour is Growing Late to Stop Trump.” Well, the hour has grown later, and we have to ask the question: Has Trump been stopped? Certainly not. And a...

For the anti-Trump forces, it may be now or never

Meanwhile, Sanders gains on Clinton outside the South

As we’ve suggested, the past few weeks have been defined by increasingly-loud talk of a contested convention and the possibility that the presidential contest will go beyond the first ballot, something that has not happened in either party since 1952. The highly unusual circumstances on the Republican side, where the...

Louisiana Governor: Ganging Up on Vitter

In his classic biography of Earl Long, who was Huey’s brother and a three-time governor of Louisiana, A.J. Liebling described the state’s primary for gubernatorial nominations as “the grand gimmick of Louisiana politics.” Back then, when winning the Democratic primary was tantamount to election, all Democratic candidates would run together...

The Real Presidential Deadlines

Late-entering candidates must consider fast-approaching filing dates

The presidential fields on both sides are so much in flux that rumors of new candidates entering the race continue. For the Democrats, the whispers about Vice President Joe Biden making a late charge into the fray have become roars. Biden made a campaign-style appearance at a Labor Day rally...

Kicking Off the Debate Season

Welcome to Debate Day! Finally, voters and analysts will get to see one party’s field (or at least, some of it) take the stage to duke it out in primetime. The main GOP debate participant list is set, as is that of the warm-up confab for the seven Republicans who...

Eight Decades of Debate

A brief history of presidential primary clashes

Next week begins what has become a regular presidential primary tradition: the debates. As a way of previewing them, we decided to look back at the history of primary debates. Readers may be surprised to learn that primary debates existed before the advent of televised general election debates in 1960....

My Old Kentucky Home: Could Matt Bevin’s Soon Be the Governor’s Mansion?

Breaking down 2015’s marquee race & this cycle’s other gubernatorial contests

These days, the Bluegrass State is looking a lot less blue at the federal level. In the last four presidential elections, the Democratic candidate only averaged 40.6% of the two-party vote, the party’s 10th-worst state in that time period. Four-term Sen. Wendell Ford (D) was the last Democrat to win...

14 from ’14: Quick Takes on the Midterm

After going over the results from last week, we had a number of bite-sized observations to offer -- 14, to be exact: 1. The polls really were worse than usual This cycle featured the largest average miss by the two major poll aggregators, RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster, in recent competitive...