Sizing up the Statehouses

Nov. 4 is rapidly approaching but a large number of gubernatorial contests remain up in the air. In fact, despite having some ratings changes this week, the Crystal Ball still has seven Toss-up races on the board, and most appear to be headed right down to the wire. The two...

Notes on the State of Politics

Gubernatorial and House changes, plus the early read on early voting

Gubernatorial changes: Déjà vu for Coakley? We’ve got four gubernatorial ratings changes to make this week. The big one is in Massachusetts, where state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) can no longer be called a favorite over Charlie Baker (R), also his party’s 2010 nominee. The most recent polls have...

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

House ratings changes, next week's primaries and Center for Politics wins an Emmy

House ratings changes A race-by-race analysis, as well as history, suggests Republicans are in line to make a small, mid-to-high single-digit addition to their majority, but there’s been little movement one way or the other in most races or in the overall climate. We’re planning to take a fuller look...

Microscope on Magnolias

Runoff turnout drops, McDaniel as Reagan and other Mississippi tidbits

An old country phrase best describes the possibility of a turnout increase saving Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) in an upcoming runoff: That dog don’t hunt. But it’s also far from clear whether a bigger turnout would naturally help Cochran in the runoff anyway. Mississippi Republicans voted at record levels in...

CANTOR’S FALL

The House majority leader’s shocking loss is more an outlier than a harbinger

Note: A version of this story appeared as “Your Theory About Why Cantor Lost Is Probably Wrong” on Politico Magazine Wednesday night. The Richmond Times-Dispatch called it a “political earthquake.” It was the “upset of the century,” added Fredericksburg’s Free Lance-Star. A powerful, veteran member of the U.S. House of...

MCDANIEL’S ‘FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS’

The fallout from Tuesday’s primaries

In his classic book Southern Politics in State and Nation, V.O. Key Jr. wrote about the importance of “friends and neighbors” in one-party southern elections. More than half a century after the book was written, strength at home powered yet another Deep South candidate. Tuesday night featured about as dramatic...

Tennant moves the needle in West Virginia

Republicans still favored in Mountain State, but Democrats not going quietly

Republicans still favored in Mountain State, but Democrats not going quietly

Republicans still favored in Mountain State, but Democrats not going quietly

West Virginia and national Democrats finally have a candidate in the Mountain State’s open Senate race: Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) will reportedly enter the contest Tuesday morning. Her entry, which has been rumored for months, gives Democrats a credible opponent for Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R, WV-2), the...

MIND THE GAP

Gender gap present in almost all federal statewide races over last decade

News reports that deem a gender gap in polling noteworthy -- with women as more Democratic and men as more Republican -- are falling into a trap described by a journalistic cliché: They’re reporting when a dog bites a man. That’s because it would be far more unusual -- akin...