Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 15, 2021

CA-GOV Moves to Safe Democratic following Newsom recall win; Indiana Republicans don't go for the jugular on House map proposal

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday evening from 6-7 p.m. eastern for a conversation with Matthew Barzun, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom as well as Sweden. Barzun will be discussing his experiences representing the United States abroad, his work as the national finance chair for Barack Obama’s presidential...

Redistricting in America, Part Seven: The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

Democrats seek more from a region they already dominate

  Dear Readers: This is the seventh part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South, Part Three looked at four larger states in the South, Part Four considered the West Coast and the Southwest,...

Redistricting in America, Part Six: The Great Lakes

Democrats will try to wring a bit more out of Illinois, while divided government, judges, and new redistricting methods cloud the outlook elsewhere

Dear Readers: This is the sixth part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South, Part Three looked at four larger states in the South, Part Four considered the West Coast and the Southwest, and...

Redistricting in America, Part Four: The West Coast and Southwest

What will commissions (and Democrats) draw out West?

Dear Readers: This is the fourth part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South, and Part Three looked at four larger states in the South. This week, we’re analyzing the West Coast and the...

Redistricting in America, Part Three: The Republicans’ Southern Prizes

The GOP gerrymandering possibilities in FL, GA, NC, and TX

Dear Readers: This is the third part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, and Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South. This week, we’re analyzing four big Southern states – Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas – which, together, represent a...

Redistricting in America, Part Two: The Dark Red Greater South

The Outlook in AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, SC, TN, & WV

Dear Readers: This is the second part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview. We will cover additional regions in the coming weeks. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans dominate redistricting in a number of small-to-medium-sized states in the Deep...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 21, 2021

Revisiting the “Shy Trump” vote; Special elections coming in TX, OH; Redistricting standoff in NJ

  Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors AAPOR report sheds light on “shy Trump” phenomenon A new report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research confirmed that...

Notes on the State of Politics: June 30, 2021

Assessing the importance of early ads as Youngkin claims massive, early spending edge in Virginia; first-draft congressional map in Colorado helps illustrate the state’s political changes

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Youngkin’s barrage tests efficacy of early ads Part of the reason that Glenn Youngkin was an appealing candidate to Virginia Republicans was...

The New York City Mayoral Primary

Breaking down the political geography of the nation’s largest city as voters digest a crowded and sometimes crazy campaign

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- New York City’s mayors have struggled in their recent efforts to win higher office, but they often become national figures anyway on account of their high-profile position. -- Ranked-choice voting as well as the many twists and turns of the race makes it difficult...

The NM-1 Special: Democrats Hold Serve

House specials may not be as useful an indicator as they were in the 2018 cycle

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats turned in an impressive victory in Tuesday night’s special election in NM-1. This comes a month after Republicans scored an impressive performance of their own in the first round of the TX-6 special. -- Democratic performance represented an improvement over both Barack Obama...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 26, 2021

A silver lining for House Democrats; Democrats in good shape in NM-1 special; Republicans still clearly favored in top Florida races despite emergence of credible challengers

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The House: A silver lining for Democrats Last week’s Crystal Ball, which featured hypothetical ratings of the House that did not take...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2021

Youngkin captures Virginia GOP nomination; Minnesota under the influence of weed (parties); new report dissects the 2020 electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors VA-GOV: Youngkin wins GOP nomination, race Leans Democratic for the fall Glenn Youngkin, former co-chief executive of the Carlyle Group, won the...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 3, 2021

Republicans finish ahead in TX-6; Bustos announces retirement; polarization thriving in the American electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors TX-6: Democrats locked out of runoff In the Dallas area this weekend, a somewhat unexpected -- but not entirely surprising -- result...