A Trump Bump for Vance

Key Ohio races remain rated Likely Republican following primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- It’s hard to quantify exactly what Donald Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance was worth in the Ohio GOP Senate primary, but Vance’s victory likely will reaffirm the belief among Republicans that Trump’s endorsement is very much worth having. -- Both the Ohio gubernatorial and...

Notes on the State of the Senate

The overall picture for November, and the looming primaries in May

The small stuff versus the big stuff There is a push and pull in the race for control of the U.S. Senate between the big picture electoral environment, which clearly benefits Republicans, and the day-to-day developments on the campaign trail, which do not always clearly benefit Republicans. Examples of the...

Notes on the State of Politics: April 6, 2022

Rating new House maps in Ohio, Maryland, and Louisiana

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Ohio: Republicans still have a chance to win all but 2 seats We noted last week that the Ohio Supreme Court has scheduled arguments for...

Democrats’ Position Improves in Redistricting Tally

Breaking down new maps in New York, Tennessee

  Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow, Wednesday, Feb. 9, as Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviews Rep. Ro Khanna (D, CA-17) about Khanna’s new book, Dignity in a Digital Age: Making Tech Work for All of Us. The program will run from 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. eastern time....

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 2, 2022

Can Republicans play in deep blue Senate seats? New maps in HI, SC (and NY)

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Are any deep blue Senate seats in danger for Democrats? As Democrats attempt to defend their Senate majority, they hold 4 seats that both sides...

Notes on the State of Politics: Jan. 26, 2022

Warning signs in South TX for Democrats, Iowa looking redder, two new state maps

Dear Readers: On Thursday, Jan. 27 from 2-3 p.m., the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the UVA Office of Global Affairs will host a virtual Ambassador Series event with His Excellency Juan Carlos Pinzón, Ambassador of Colombia to the United States. You can watch here. This is the...

Five Warning Signs for Biden as He Marks First Anniversary in Office

Reviewing Biden's (and Democrats') numbers after a difficult first year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As Joe Biden marks a year in office, he has found himself in a perilous position, and there are no obvious signs of improvement. -- Among Biden’s challenges is an apparently weakened position among nonwhite voters as well as younger voters, two immensely important pillars...

House Republicans’ Drive to 35

What it would take for the GOP to build its biggest majority since the Great Depression

Dear Readers: If you missed last week’s special UVA Center for Politics program, “The Shock of January 6,” it is now available on our YouTube channel, UVACFP. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With some key national factors seemingly in their favor, Republicans could win a healthy...

The Holiday Redistricting Flurry

Nearly two-thirds of districts now complete, barring judicial intervention; Republicans remain well-positioned to win House

Dear Readers: Please join us Thursday evening for a special University of Virginia Center for Politics event: “The Shock of January 6,” commemorating the first anniversary of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the event live...

A Tale of Two Midwestern Gerrymanders: Illinois and Ohio

Plus redistricting updates elsewhere, and a gubernatorial rating change

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gerrymanders by Democrats in Illinois and Republicans in Ohio seek to build upon their dominance of their respective states. -- The Ohio Supreme Court could intervene against the GOP gerrymander there, which perhaps helps explain why Republicans were not as aggressive as they could...

Republican Sweep in Virginia Sets off Alarm Bells for Democrats

After picking Youngkin in Old Dominion, Crystal Ball shifts several Democratic Senate seats to Toss-up

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow, Thursday, Nov. 4, from 6:30 p.m.* to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project. They will be followed by...

A Last Word on Virginia

The race doesn’t always predict the next midterm, although it has given some signals more recently

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday, Nov. 4 from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project. They will be followed by discussions...