KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In last night’s high-stakes state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, Democratic-aligned Janet Protasiewicz comfortably dispatched former Justice Daniel Kelly, giving liberals a 4-3 majority on the court. -- Compared to some previous Democratic-aligned judges, Protasiewicz had a more “nationalized” voting coalition, although she still carried...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The calendar year before the presidential primary voting begins is often defined by winnowing, as contenders emerge and then fade. -- But Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are taking up so much oxygen that we may already have the top contenders, with everyone else...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors How likely is an Electoral College tie? The 2020 election came fairly close to ending in an Electoral College tie. While Joe Biden won the...
Dear Readers: Join us next Wednesday, Feb. 22 for “A Conversation with Former/Future Republicans Bill Kristol and David Ramadan.” Kristol, a longtime political commentator, and Ramadan, a Center for Politics scholar and former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, will discuss the past and future of the Republican...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Biden’s successful State of the Union address suggested he’s full speed ahead on running for a second term. -- Despite polls showing that even many Democrats would prefer Biden not to run again, he has no real opposition within his own party -- and...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans...
Dear Readers: This is our only planned issue of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back following Labor Day. But before the holiday weekend, we have 2 notable rating changes to make in the Senate. In the meantime, make sure you subscribe to our new “Politics is Everything” podcast....
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Before we begin this week, we wanted to wish our dear friend, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz, a speedy recovery from a medical procedure he had last week....
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. After last night’s big primaries, we go state-by-state below and assess the takeaways, starting with the most notable result of the evening -- a decisive victory for abortion rights supporters...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We have a couple of rating changes to announce this week, both in California -- those are shown in Table 1. We’ll explain those changes later in the...
Dear Readers: Last night saw primaries and runoffs in several states across the country, as well as a special election in Nebraska. This was the last big primary night of a busy June. Looking ahead, July will not feature much primary action, although there will be some key contests in...
Dear Readers: Tuesday night saw primaries in 4 states, as well as a closely-watched (but lightly-voted) U.S. House special election in Texas. In the aftermath of these contests, we’re making 4 rating changes, although 2 of them are in states that didn’t have elections on Tuesday. This is the latest...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With the national House map nearly complete, it appears that the overall map still leans toward Republicans. -- However, this GOP bias is not nearly as strong as it was a decade ago. -- We rate and analyze the new Missouri and New York...
