Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Repeat candidates possible in key Senate races A few months ago, we noted that one theme in this cycle’s House races has been the presence...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday night, this time in red-trending Ohio. -- Turnout was robust and likely advantaged the Democratic side. Voter participation was relatively poor across Appalachia, a once-competitive area that has become extremely Republican...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The Trump coalition: A case of beer plus a bottle of wine Former President Trump does not drink, but his enduring political coalition within the...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite an increasing correlation between presidential and down-ballot results, there are still nine governors who govern states that their party did not win for president. That means there is a higher percentage of crossover governors than crossover members of the Senate and House. --...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Hampshire and Democrats’ search for a gubernatorial target Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) did something a little unusual for a Republican these days -- he decided...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In last night’s high-stakes state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, Democratic-aligned Janet Protasiewicz comfortably dispatched former Justice Daniel Kelly, giving liberals a 4-3 majority on the court. -- Compared to some previous Democratic-aligned judges, Protasiewicz had a more “nationalized” voting coalition, although she still carried...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The calendar year before the presidential primary voting begins is often defined by winnowing, as contenders emerge and then fade. -- But Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are taking up so much oxygen that we may already have the top contenders, with everyone else...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors How likely is an Electoral College tie? The 2020 election came fairly close to ending in an Electoral College tie. While Joe Biden won the...
Dear Readers: Join us next Wednesday, Feb. 22 for “A Conversation with Former/Future Republicans Bill Kristol and David Ramadan.” Kristol, a longtime political commentator, and Ramadan, a Center for Politics scholar and former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, will discuss the past and future of the Republican...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Biden’s successful State of the Union address suggested he’s full speed ahead on running for a second term. -- Despite polls showing that even many Democrats would prefer Biden not to run again, he has no real opposition within his own party -- and...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans...
Dear Readers: This is our only planned issue of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back following Labor Day. But before the holiday weekend, we have 2 notable rating changes to make in the Senate. In the meantime, make sure you subscribe to our new “Politics is Everything” podcast....
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Before we begin this week, we wanted to wish our dear friend, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz, a speedy recovery from a medical procedure he had last week....
