Previewing the Iowa Caucus

A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Monday night’s Iowa Republican caucus kicks off the presidential nominating season. -- The caucus has a spotty history of voting for the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side, although Donald Trump is a big favorite both in Iowa and nationally. Ron DeSantis is...

Elections 2023: Democrats Enjoy a Strong Night

They score victories in five of the six key races we were watching, although off-year elections do not necessarily predict the following year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats won five of the six key races we were watching in Tuesday night’s elections, turning in a strong showing just a couple of days after a series of bad polls for President Joe Biden left some Democrats shook as the presidential race looms...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 13, 2023

The candidates coming back for more in key Senate races; rating Ohio’s House seats after last year’s map endures

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Repeat candidates possible in key Senate races A few months ago, we noted that one theme in this cycle’s House races has been the presence...

Ohio’s Issue 1 Smackdown

The left scores another win in an abortion rights proxy fight; apparent turnout and persuasion edge drives Democratic success

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday night, this time in red-trending Ohio. -- Turnout was robust and likely advantaged the Democratic side. Voter participation was relatively poor across Appalachia, a once-competitive area that has become extremely Republican...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2023

Trump’s beer and wine combo helps him maintain a big primary lead; Alabama’s redistricting machinations

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The Trump coalition: A case of beer plus a bottle of wine Former President Trump does not drink, but his enduring political coalition within the...

The Dwindling Crossover Governorships

Sununu’s retirement, other factors could reduce the number of split presidential/gubernatorial results

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite an increasing correlation between presidential and down-ballot results, there are still nine governors who govern states that their party did not win for president. That means there is a higher percentage of crossover governors than crossover members of the Senate and House. --...

Notes on the State of Politics: June 7, 2023

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Hampshire and Democrats’ search for a gubernatorial target Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) did something a little unusual for a Republican these days -- he decided...

With Protasiewicz win, Democrats flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court

Democrats notch key victory a purple state contest

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In last night’s high-stakes state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, Democratic-aligned Janet Protasiewicz comfortably dispatched former Justice Daniel Kelly, giving liberals a 4-3 majority on the court. -- Compared to some previous Democratic-aligned judges, Protasiewicz had a more “nationalized” voting coalition, although she still carried...

The Republican Presidential Primary: Still Early, but Maybe Getting Late

The field remains unformed, but if DeSantis is the real deal, there’s not much room for other challengers to Trump

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The calendar year before the presidential primary voting begins is often defined by winnowing, as contenders emerge and then fade. -- But Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are taking up so much oxygen that we may already have the top contenders, with everyone else...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 1, 2023

Gaming out a possible Electoral College tie; Michigan Senate race takes shape; a look back at the VA-4 special

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors How likely is an Electoral College tie? The 2020 election came fairly close to ending in an Electoral College tie. While Joe Biden won the...

The Senate Primaries to Watch So Far

Incumbents have had a lot of primary success lately

  Dear Readers: Join us next Wednesday, Feb. 22 for “A Conversation with Former/Future Republicans Bill Kristol and David Ramadan.” Kristol, a longtime political commentator, and Ramadan, a Center for Politics scholar and former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, will discuss the past and future of the Republican...

The State of Biden’s Next Campaign

The president has little real opposition in his own party but remains dependent on weaknesses across the aisle

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Biden’s successful State of the Union address suggested he’s full speed ahead on running for a second term. -- Despite polls showing that even many Democrats would prefer Biden not to run again, he has no real opposition within his own party -- and...

Upset Alert

Where to look out for surprising results; rating changes in Senate, House, and gubernatorial races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s...

Four Weeks to Go

House, gubernatorial rating changes, and the overall state of play

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 7, 2022

House rating changes; MA-GOV to Safe Democratic; next week’s primaries

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans...