The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic

Replaces North Carolina as the seat likeliest to be No. 50 for Democrats; the House state of play

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m., just hours before the final presidential debate, for the latest edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the closing days of the campaign, email us at goodpolitics@virginia.edu. Additionally, an audio-only podcast...

With Just Weeks to Go, Trump is Not Making up Ground

Rating changes in Electoral College, Senate, Governor, and House

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes. Vice presidential expert Joel K. Goldstein will be joining us to react to the VP debate. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the debate, specific races,...

Biden Lead Looks Firmer as Midwest Moves His Way

Challenger edges over 270; rating changes for Senate, House

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. We’ll be reacting to the first debate and going over the state of the race, including the many rating changes we made today (see below). We also will be hearing from Chris Jackson...

Rating Changes: Maine Senate Moves to Leans Democratic

ME-2 electoral vote now a Toss-up; South Carolina Senate narrows

Dear Readers: On Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern, we'll be devoting our new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series to previewing the debates, which start next week. If you've got questions about the debates -- both on the matchup this year, and also those from the...

Notes on the State of Politics

VP omissions; recapping Tuesday’s primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) seems to be rising in the Biden veepstakes. -- Late Wednesday, Jon Ossoff (D) apparently captured the Democratic nomination to face Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), thus avoiding a runoff. -- Primaries in South Carolina and West Virginia saw...

Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016

Unified parties, lack of strong alternatives among reasons to suspect major party candidates will get a higher percentage of the vote than four years ago

Dear Readers: We wanted to let you know about two upcoming University of Virginia Center for Politics events. The Center for Politics in partnership with the UVA Parents Fund Committee and UVA Office of Engagement will present a live, online celebration this Saturday, May 16, beginning from 11:30 a.m. to...

The State of the States: The Governors

Vulnerable incumbents get a boost in the midst of crisis

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow as UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviews Time national political correspondent Molly Ball about her new book, Pelosi, an intimate, fresh perspective on the most powerful woman in American political history. The conversation will take place from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m....

The Senate: Looking Beyond the “Core Four”

Four races are set to decide the Senate, but they are not the only races that matter

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The focus on the evenly-matched battle for the Senate has in some ways narrowed to four GOP-held seats: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. -- Practically speaking, Democrats probably have to win all four, and the White House, to win the Senate. -- However,...

Wisconsin’s Supreme Court Race: Don’t Project it Forward to the Fall

Turnout dynamic likely to be bigger and different in the fall

Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m., Kyle Kondik (Managing Editor of the Crystal Ball) will moderate a panel of four experts, “Voting in the Midst of a Pandemic.” He will be joined by Lee Goodman, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission; Myrna Pérez, Director of the Brennan Center's Voting...

Democratic Voters Closing the Door on Sanders

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Tuesday night’s primary results generally showed Joe Biden running stronger versus Bernie Sanders than Hillary Clinton did against Sanders four years ago. -- Biden won every single county in Michigan, Mississippi, and Missouri, and he performed more than well enough out West. -- Biden’s...

Danger Signs Abound for Sanders in Michigan — and Elsewhere

He will have to beat the polls once again, but he may have benefited from an anti-Clinton vote not present this time

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Ahead of several delegate-rich contests this month, both national and state-level polls suggest that Joe Biden is solidifying his lead over Bernie Sanders. -- Though a handful of states will be voting tomorrow, Michigan, given its significance in the 2016 primary, will be a...

For Biden, a Stunning Super Tuesday

Former VP sweeps South and moves North; Sanders has to rally in Midwest to avoid being swamped

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- That Joe Biden swept the South was not that big of a surprise; that he won states outside of it was. -- The overall delegate math is unclear and may very well have ended up close on Super Tuesday, but Bernie Sanders needed to...

Biden’s Super Tuesday Test: Defending the South

Sanders vs. Biden may be determined by who breaks through on the other’s turf

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s victory in South Carolina re-established him as the main challenger to Bernie Sanders. -- There is some indication their battle could break on regional lines, with Sanders fighting for inroads in the South and Biden for access to the North. Biden’s task...

The Sanders Tax

How our Electoral College ratings might change
if he becomes the presumptive nominee

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If Democrats nominated Bernie Sanders, they would, initially, start off with somewhat of a penalty in our Electoral College ratings. -- Sanders’ policy prescriptions and rhetoric may complicate Democratic prospects in the Sun Belt, where the party’s recent growth has been driven by highly-educated...