Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 7, 2022

House rating changes; MA-GOV to Safe Democratic; next week’s primaries

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: August 10, 2022

A narrow win for the GOP in MN-1, primaries in CT, VT, WI

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Before we begin this week, we wanted to wish our dear friend, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz, a speedy recovery from a medical procedure he had last week....

Notes on the State of Politics: August 3, 2022

Abortion rights supporters win first post-Roe ballot battle; Senate Republicans avoid a headache in Missouri; Trumpy Arizona; and more

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. After last night’s big primaries, we go state-by-state below and assess the takeaways, starting with the most notable result of the evening -- a decisive victory for abortion rights supporters...

Rating Change: GA-GOV to Leans Republican Following Kemp’s Smashing Primary Win

Incumbent faces rematch with Abrams in a more favorable cycle; other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) shellacked Donald Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) in the Georgia Republican primary on Tuesday, and we are moving the general election race from Toss-up to Leans Republican. -- The sheer size of Kemp’s win paired with Secretary of State...

A Trump Bump for Vance

Key Ohio races remain rated Likely Republican following primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- It’s hard to quantify exactly what Donald Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance was worth in the Ohio GOP Senate primary, but Vance’s victory likely will reaffirm the belief among Republicans that Trump’s endorsement is very much worth having. -- Both the Ohio gubernatorial and...

Notes on the State of the Senate

The overall picture for November, and the looming primaries in May

The small stuff versus the big stuff There is a push and pull in the race for control of the U.S. Senate between the big picture electoral environment, which clearly benefits Republicans, and the day-to-day developments on the campaign trail, which do not always clearly benefit Republicans. Examples of the...

Notes on the State of Politics: April 6, 2022

Rating new House maps in Ohio, Maryland, and Louisiana

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Ohio: Republicans still have a chance to win all but 2 seats We noted last week that the Ohio Supreme Court has scheduled arguments for...

Democrats’ Position Improves in Redistricting Tally

Breaking down new maps in New York, Tennessee

  Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow, Wednesday, Feb. 9, as Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviews Rep. Ro Khanna (D, CA-17) about Khanna’s new book, Dignity in a Digital Age: Making Tech Work for All of Us. The program will run from 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. eastern time....

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 2, 2022

Can Republicans play in deep blue Senate seats? New maps in HI, SC (and NY)

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Are any deep blue Senate seats in danger for Democrats? As Democrats attempt to defend their Senate majority, they hold 4 seats that both sides...