Dear Readers: This is the first of a two-part Crystal Ball series on this November’s state legislative elections in Virginia. Today’s piece looks at the overall electoral picture, and Part Two will identify and analyze the key districts that will decide the majorities. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020. -- The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap. -- While there is nearly a 40-point difference...
Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we discuss the third indictment of former President Trump as well as today’s Crystal Ball article. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Just about 150...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our initial 2024 Electoral College ratings start with just four Toss-up states. -- Democrats start with a small advantage, although both sides begin south of what they need to win. -- We consider a rematch of the 2020 election -- Joe Biden versus Donald...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Supreme Court’s Allen v. Milligan decision should give Democrats at least a little help in their quest to re-take the House majority, but much remains uncertain. -- As of now, the Democrats’ best bets to add a seat in 2024 are in Alabama,...
Biden may pass on New Hampshire test While it would not rank that high on the all-time list of ways in which the Donald Trump experience did not correspond with history, Trump’s electoral performance in 2020 was unusual in that he lost reelection despite a very strong showing in his...
Dear Readers: Join us at 10:30 eastern this morning for a conversation with the Honorable Mark Brzezinski, Ambassador of the United States to Poland. The ambassador will discuss the latest issues impacting Poland and the U.S. with particular emphasis on the war in Ukraine. This virtual event will be streaming...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Presidential approval is typically a good predictor of the share of the vote an incumbent president will receive. -- Recent presidents often ran a little ahead of their approval as opposed to a little behind, although the sample size is very small. -- Assuming...
Dear Readers: New Center for Politics Professor of Practice Liz Cheney will discuss her time in Congress, her role on the Select Committee that investigated Jan. 6, 2021, and more in a conversation with Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato on Wednesday, April 19. The conversation will run from...
Dear Readers: Join us on Tuesday, April 11 for a conversation with Nguyen Quoc Dzung, ambassador of Vietnam to the United States. The ambassador will speak on the relationship between Vietnam and the U.S. and issues impacting Vietnam and Southeast Asia. The program begins at 6:30 p.m. eastern at Minor...
Dear Readers: Join us on Monday, April 3 for “Drawing the Lines: Political Cartoons in the Digital Age,” a conversation with 4 of the nation’s top political cartoonists. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the discussion with Lalo Alcaraz, winner of the 2022 Herblock Prize and two-time...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives elected in the 2024 election would decide the presidency. -- Republicans are very likely to continue to control enough House delegations to select the GOP nominee as the winner,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The overall battle for House control in 2024 starts as a Toss-up. -- Relatively similar numbers of Democratic and Republican seats start in the most competitive Toss-up and Leans categories, although Republicans start with a few more targets in large part because of the...
Dear Readers: Please join us this week for a pair of special Center for Politics forums, both of which are free and open to the public and will also be livestreamed. Today (Tuesday, Jan. 24) at 4 p.m., we will host the ambassador of Chile, Juan Gabriel Valdés, at the...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) decision to retire at the end of her term gives Democrats a liability they have not had in the last few Senate cycles: An open seat to defend in a key presidential battleground. -- They arguably have a second in...
