Reassessing the Race for the Senate

GOP challengers mirror Trump in lack of experience; for Democrats, experience means a record

Dear Readers: Today through Tuesday, we’re celebrating the 70th birthday of Center for Politics Director and Founder Larry Sabato. A community of donors and friends of the Center have committed to match every gift raised for the UVA Center for Politics in his honor up to $25,000. We invite you to...

House Rating Changes: More Movement Toward Republicans

10 changes, all but 1 in favor of GOP

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 10 House rating changes, 9 of which benefit Republicans. -- Our overall best guess at the net change in the House -- a GOP gain somewhere in the 20s -- remains unchanged. -- We don’t see a huge impact, so far,...

Politics in the Post-Roe World

Abortion springs to the forefront but Republicans retain a strong hand

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance. -- Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages. -- Democrats could get their version of...

Notes on the State of Politics: June 22, 2022

House rating changes in Virginia, California, and Alaska

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Barring an unexpected development, this is going to be the only issue of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back next week with a reaction to next...

How the House Landscape Changed

A mild decline in competitive seats, and a spike in safe Republican ones

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The new House landscape is fairly similar to the old one. -- However, there is a notable increase in the number of super-safe Republican seats -- and a modest decline in the overall number of competitive districts. -- New Hampshire, the final state...

Rating Change: Ohio Gubernatorial Race to Safe Republican

And why the Senate race is still Likely Republican

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Ohio gubernatorial race moves from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. -- A close poll does not mean the Ohio Senate race is a Toss-up. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Mike DeWine (R-OH) Likely Republican Safe Republican...

The Kinds of Seats that Flip in Midterms

Looking back on past recent waves to assess Republicans’ potential in November

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While increasingly salient issues like abortion could change the political environment, Republicans still appear on track for a strong showing in the U.S. House. -- Recent midterms have hollowed out the presidential party’s holdings of districts where the president either did the same or...

House Rating Changes: 11 Moves, All in Favor of Republicans

Bigger picture coming a bit more into focus with redistricting nearly done

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 11 rating changes in the House this week, all in favor of Republicans. -- The bulk of these changes either move marginally competitive Republican-held seats to the Safe Republican category or move Democratic districts from Likely Democratic to the more competitive...

Trump-District House Democrats Could Become Extinct This November

How redistricting has altered the number of “crossover” districts

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of “crossover” districts -- those won by different parties for president and House -- has generally been declining over time. -- Under the current congressional district lines, there were only 16 crossover districts in 2020, with Republicans winning 9 Biden-won seats and...

Sarah Palin’s Surprising and Possibly Historic Run for the House

How a victory would set her apart from other unsuccessful postwar VP candidates

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin surprised the political world when she announced a run to replace the late Don Young in Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat. -- It’s not unusual for VP losers to subsequently win elected office, although in recent decades...

The Politics of the Nation’s Fastest-Growing Counties

Trends help illuminate how their states have changed over the past decade, particularly in Florida and Texas

Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics later today (Thursday, March 31) for a virtual panel, “Domestic Terrorism: How Vulnerable Are We?” The virtual forum will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/uvacfp-domesticterrorism from 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. eastern. Former United States Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and...

Gas Prices and Presidential Approval

There is some connection historically, but that connection is getting weaker

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Joe Biden and his party are struggling amidst myriad challenges, including high gas prices. Gas prices have spiked in recent weeks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. -- There is some association between higher gas prices and lower presidential approval, although the connection...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 2, 2022

TX-28 to Toss-up; national House vote in midterms; the new OK Senate race

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) Leans Democratic Toss-up Texas primary takeaways We’d say the...

The Dissipating Political Impact of Jan. 6

Trump’s standing -- and that of his party -- does not appear diminished

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A recurring theme during Donald Trump’s presidency was the emergence of seemingly very negative and very damaging stories that ultimately did not appear to do him long-term harm. -- It may be that Jan. 6, when Trump’s unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the 2020...

Six Decades of Regional Change in House Elections

The GOP edge in the South, already large, could grow in 2022

Dear Readers: Last week, the UVA Center for Politics premiered a new student-produced documentary, Common Grounds?, which explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of students from across the political spectrum. The documentary is posted on YouTube, and we hope you will take a look at what we...