Checking in on Biden’s Approval Rating as Hundred Days’ Mark Nears

Steady on average, but individual pollsters vary greatly

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s approval rating has been steady and positive, though many other presidents had better early numbers. -- The “honeymoons” of past presidents may have been stronger because of a less partisanized and polarized electorate. -- Individual national pollsters disagree on Biden’s approval rating....

The Mini-Midterms: Five Takeaways from Six Decades of House Special Elections

Races often break against president’s party; winners rarely lose next election

Dear Readers: Join us tonight (Thursday, April 15) at 6:30 p.m. eastern for a free, virtual panel: “The Changing Face of America: Voters of Color in the 2020 Election.” Theodore Johnson of the Brennan Center for Justice will moderate, and Andra Gillespie of Emory University, Mark Hugo Lopez of the...

The House: Unclear Lines, Clear Expectations

Redistricting delays cloud the seat-by-seat picture, but midterm history suggests a Republican edge

  Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. This...

The Objectors Versus the Rejecters

Analyzing how House Republicans voted in last week’s Electoral College disputes

Dear Readers: Last night, UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviewed Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) about last week’s chaos on Capitol Hill, the moment he “knew there was a massive disaster that was underway,” possible sanctions for fellow lawmakers who participated in instigating the Capitol insurrection, the Democrats’...

GOP Likely Needs a Big Georgia Turnout Today

Closing thoughts on crucial Senate runoffs; join us for star-studded online forum Wednesday evening

Dear Readers: With a new president about to take office and a sharply divided Congress, what should we expect of the high-stakes political road ahead? Kick off the new year with a “ripped from the headlines” presentation by University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and an all-star guest...

How the States Voted Relative to the Nation

Republicans retain an edge in the Electoral College

Dear Readers: Our new Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar is now available on YouTube and on our YouTube channel, UVACFP. We discuss the latest in the pivotal Georgia Senate runoffs and hear from Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, who is covering those races as closely as anyone. Our...

Senate 2022: An Early Look

Democrats may ultimately have a better shot to win the Senate than the House in two years, although winning either will be challenging

Dear Readers: Our 22nd annual American Democracy Conference is now available on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and at this direct link. It features New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie, CNN commentator Tara Setmayer, and Democratic strategist John Lapp discussing Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential race, disappointing results for Democrats down the ballot,...

Georgia’s Senate Races Both Move to Toss-up

And how we’re thinking about the presidential race with five days to go

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. for our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. In addition to breaking down the election with just days to go, we’ll be joined by Scott Tranter of Decision Desk HQ, a site that will be independently reporting results Tuesday night. Scott will...

Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away

Dear Readers: On today’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes, we’ll go in-depth on the race for the Senate. We’ll also be joined by a special guest: Grace Panetta of Business Insider. The election has already started, with millions of votes already cast: Grace is closely following...

States of Play: Ohio

After Trump maxed out the Buckeye State’s rural areas and small town areas, can Biden max out the suburbs?

Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m. eastern, we'll be devoting our new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series to previewing the debates, which start next week. We’ll go through some of the most famous debate moments and discuss what they tell us about the looming clashes...

The Dreaded 269-269 Scenario: An Update

Republicans Retain House Tiebreaker Edge

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. eastern for the latest edition of our new Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We'll be going over the latest in the race for president and we'll be hearing from a special guest: Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics. You...

The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part One: The Senate

Race for the majority remains up for grabs with less than two months to go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats hope they don’t get a repeat of the 2016 presidential race in the 2020 Senate races. The list of Democratic targets is long, but Republicans still retain an edge in most of the second and third-tier Senate races. -- We provide our latest...

Presidential Expectations and the Race for the House

That the public is less confident in Biden’s chances than the polls could have a down-ballot impact; 14 House rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot. -- Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties. -- We are making...