Big NY-3 Win Brings Democrats Ever Closer in the House

Breaking down the key special election; analyzing Toss-ups across the House map

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi (D, NY-3) begins the November general election as a favorite in our ratings following his impressive special election win. -- Republicans who hoped that immigration would be a superweapon for them in 2024 cannot really point to NY-3 as a validation...

The Race for the House, Part Two

Rating changes in 7 districts a mixed bag for each party; previewing the NY-3 special

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 7 House rating changes this week, with 4 benefiting Democrats and 3 benefiting Republicans. -- Republicans continue to be closer to the magic number of 218 in our ratings than Democrats, but there are enough Toss-up races that we broadly consider...

The Race for the House, Part One

Ticket-splitting dwindling but still vital; GOP got a little more of it in key 2016/2020 races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Any analysis of House elections needs to start with the presidential race, as voting for the former has become so intertwined with the latter. -- That said, some voters do still split their tickets, and they may decide the House majority. -- Despite worries...

Trump Clears the New Hampshire Hurdle

Haley can’t win the Republican nomination without Republicans; Biden avoids a Granite State slipup with write-in showing

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While one can poke some holes in Donald Trump’s New Hampshire showing, he dispatched Nikki Haley in a state friendly to her coalition. -- Haley is dominating with moderates and independents, but, as obvious as it may sound, winning conservatives and Republicans is the...

Big Iowa Win Confirms Trump’s Stranglehold on GOP

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The polls were basically correct in Iowa, as Donald Trump dominated the kickoff caucus. -- Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley finished second and third, respectively, in a scramble for second, but they were both so far behind Trump—about 30 points apiece—that it was hard...

The Presidential Race at the Dawn of a New Year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election...

Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 13, 2023

Comparing Biden’s approval to Trump’s from four years ago; Democrats hope for a new gerrymander in New York

Dear Readers: On the latest episode of our Politics is Everything podcast, former Virginia U.S. House Reps. L.F. Payne (D) and Barbara Comstock (R) discuss a new survey on the perspectives, beliefs, and experiences of former members of Congress, with a specific focus on concerns about violence in 2024. Payne...

The GOP Primary: Lowest-Hanging Fruit Remains Out of Reach for Trump Rivals

Rising Haley has work to do even with college-educated voters, not to mention Trump’s strong non-college base

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary race. -- Despite some recent movement toward Nikki Haley, Trump’s rivals are not doing even close to well enough with college-educated Republicans—a group that is not as pro-Trump as Republicans who do not hold a four-year...

Putting Biden’s Troubles with Young Voters in Perspective

Youngest voters have been strongly Democratic in recent elections, but the president also has clear weaknesses with that group

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recent 2024 presidential polling has shown President Biden performing poorly with young voters. -- The 18-29 voting bloc has been reliably Democratic leaning for at least the last several presidential elections. -- Biden’s weakness with young voters is not new, despite doing well among...

Notes on the State of the 2023 Elections

VA 2023 looks a lot like 2019; ads might help explain a PA oddity; Beshear and disaster relief

Dear Readers: We wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving; the Crystal Ball will not be publishing next week. Before we move full speed into assessing 2024, we wanted to take a quick look back at a few notable findings from last week’s elections -- specifically in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and...

The Third Party Wild Card

Recent non-major party vote strongest out west -- and not in the states likeliest to decide 2024

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Potentially weak major party nominees paired with a long list of third party candidates could lead to a higher-than-usual level of third party voting in 2024. -- Recent third party performance has generally been strongest in western states and weakest in the South. --...

Trump and Biden Seek Historic Combined Sweep

Despite weaknesses, they could be the first-ever pair of modern nominees to each win every nominating contest

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite weak overall favorability, Joe Biden and Donald Trump could combine for the strongest presidential nominating performance in modern history. -- Since the advent of the current nominating system in each party, which dates to the early 1970s, at least one of the two...

The Battle for the Virginia State Legislature, Part One

Democratic presidential lean muted in lower-turnout legislative races, but political environment appears to be different than 2021

Dear Readers: This is the first of a two-part Crystal Ball series on this November’s state legislative elections in Virginia. Today’s piece looks at the overall electoral picture, and Part Two will identify and analyze the key districts that will decide the majorities. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS...

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two

Trend from 1996-2020 shows a much larger partisan gap between bigger and smaller counties, with 2000 and 2016 as key contributors

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020. -- The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap. -- While there is nearly a 40-point difference...

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part One

Just 151 out of 3,100+ counties cast half the national vote; gap between top and bottom half expanding

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we discuss the third indictment of former President Trump as well as today’s Crystal Ball article. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Just about 150...