Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik’s new book, The Long Red Thread: How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in US House Elections, was published by Ohio University Press this week. It is available through IndieBound, Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other booksellers. The Long Red Thread...
One of the most common questions we got around this time last year was whether there was some way for the then-presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, to be replaced as the nominee by… Andrew Cuomo, the three-term Democratic governor of New York who had become an omnipresent figure in...
Dear Readers: This is the first of a multi-part Crystal Ball series that we’ll be publishing periodically between now and Labor Day analyzing congressional redistricting. In future parts of the series, we’ll cover redistricting across the nation’s regions, touching on every state. The redistricting process has been slow to develop...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Currently, one party controls all of the statewide elected executive offices in 36 of the 50 states. -- Candidate decisions by down-ballot executive officeholders in Florida and Missouri could make Republican statewide sweeps easier in those states, and Democrats may have opportunities to sweep...
Dear Readers: The University of Virginia Center for Politics has released a trailer for its latest documentary, Common Grounds. Produced entirely by student interns at the Center for Politics, the documentary explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of several students of differing political beliefs. A primary goal...
Dear Readers: Virginia lost one of its most prominent and successful political figures on Tuesday, as former Sen. John Warner (R-VA) died at the age of 94. Warner served for three decades in the Senate (1979-2009), becoming known for his expertise on military matters and growing into a role as...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The reapportionment of House seats and pending redistricting has prevented us from releasing U.S. House ratings so far this cycle. -- While Republicans stand to gain from this process, they would be favored to win the House even if the district lines were not...
Dear Readers: We are publishing a special, early-week edition of the Crystal Ball in order to react to Monday afternoon’s U.S. Census Bureau congressional reapportionment announcement. We’ll be back with a second issue of the Crystal Ball later this week. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s approval rating has been steady and positive, though many other presidents had better early numbers. -- The “honeymoons” of past presidents may have been stronger because of a less partisanized and polarized electorate. -- Individual national pollsters disagree on Biden’s approval rating....
Dear Readers: Join us tonight (Thursday, April 15) at 6:30 p.m. eastern for a free, virtual panel: “The Changing Face of America: Voters of Color in the 2020 Election.” Theodore Johnson of the Brennan Center for Justice will moderate, and Andra Gillespie of Emory University, Mark Hugo Lopez of the...
Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. This...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Even as a new president is inaugurated today, the outgoing president looms large. -- As Senate Republicans ponder how to vote in the Trump impeachment trial, they may be incentivized to move the party past Trump as they seek to recapture power in Washington...
Dear Readers: Last night, UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviewed Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) about last week’s chaos on Capitol Hill, the moment he “knew there was a massive disaster that was underway,” possible sanctions for fellow lawmakers who participated in instigating the Capitol insurrection, the Democrats’...
Dear Readers: With a new president about to take office and a sharply divided Congress, what should we expect of the high-stakes political road ahead? Kick off the new year with a “ripped from the headlines” presentation by University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and an all-star guest...
Dear Readers: Our new Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar is now available on YouTube and on our YouTube channel, UVACFP. We discuss the latest in the pivotal Georgia Senate runoffs and hear from Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, who is covering those races as closely as anyone. Our...
