The Dreaded 269-269 Scenario: An Update

Republicans Retain House Tiebreaker Edge

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. eastern for the latest edition of our new Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We'll be going over the latest in the race for president and we'll be hearing from a special guest: Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics. You...

The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part One: The Senate

Race for the majority remains up for grabs with less than two months to go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats hope they don’t get a repeat of the 2016 presidential race in the 2020 Senate races. The list of Democratic targets is long, but Republicans still retain an edge in most of the second and third-tier Senate races. -- We provide our latest...

Presidential Expectations and the Race for the House

That the public is less confident in Biden’s chances than the polls could have a down-ballot impact; 14 House rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot. -- Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties. -- We are making...

The National Polls: 2016 vs. 2020 Before the Conventions

Fewer undecideds, more party unity, and an independent shift

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Several national pollsters conducted surveys on the eve of the convention season in both 2016 and 2020. We compared them to see how the race was different from four years ago. -- Compared to four years ago, the parties are more unified; Biden is...

The Senate: Ranking the Top Dozen Best Targets

Establishment Republicans relieved by Kansas primary result; rating changes in Georgia and Iowa

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- National Republicans breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday night, as Rep. Roger Marshall (R, KS-1) beat 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) in the Kansas Senate primary. Practically speaking, the Kansas Senate race went from being a potentially major Democratic offensive target to...

House Rating Changes

Eight shifts, almost all benefiting Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing. -- At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall. -- There...

The Electoral College: The Fringe of the Map Expands

If Trump’s numbers don’t improve, some surprising states could come into play

Editor's Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We'll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half. -- With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight...

The Clock’s Ticking for Kanye

And anyone else who wants to make a late entry into the presidential race

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Kanye West tweeted over the weekend that he is running for president. -- He has already missed some state deadlines to file for president as an independent, and other deadlines loom. Presidential filing deadlines loom Rapper Kanye West tweeted the following over the weekend:...

The House: Democratic Murmurings in the Texas Suburbs – and Elsewhere

11 rating changes, most in favor of Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf. -- Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could...

The Electoral College: Trump’s Floodgates are Creaking

Florida, Pennsylvania shift toward Biden, but he’s still shy of the magic number 270 in our ratings

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making two Electoral College rating changes this week. -- Florida moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, and Pennsylvania moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. -- This means 268 electoral votes are rated as at least leaning to Joe Biden in our ratings;...

King Dethroned, and Other Notes from the June 2 primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep. Steve King’s (R, IA-4) primary loss makes his Republican-leaning seat easier for the GOP to defend. -- There weren’t many other surprises from Tuesday night. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating IA-4 Open (King, R) Likely Republican...

Trump-Pence: The Ticket That Seems (Almost) Certain for a 2020 Reprise

Dear Readers: Join us today at noon eastern for an online panel on the 2020 Veepstakes. Marquette University’s Julia Azari; the Washington Post’s David Byler; VP expert Joel Goldstein; and the Brennan Center’s Ted Johnson will discuss Joe Biden’s possible choices, the electoral importance of running mates, and more. The...

The Democrats’ House Polling Lead: Remarkably Steady

Generic ballot, money edge point to retained blue majority; seven rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency. -- Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help....

The Next Big Special Election: CA-25

Top-two primary results generally decent for Democrats, but a May special election held amidst uncertainty of the pandemic could give Republicans a chance to make up a little ground in California

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats netted seven House seats in California in 2018, winning 46 of the megastate’s 53 seats. -- The state’s top-two primary election system can provide clues for the fall. With results almost entirely complete, none of the newly-elected Democrats appear to be in serious...

Rating Changes: Electoral College and Senate

Democrats edge slightly ahead, but presidential race still a Toss-up; upper chamber battle gets closer; governors face what likely will be the biggest test of their tenures

Dear Readers: Please join Crystal Ball Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman for a livestreamed assessment of the 2020 landscape from noon to 1 p.m. eastern today. The livestream will be available at: https://livestream.com/tavco/sabatoscrystalball and is free. We previously were...