The Objectors Versus the Rejecters

Analyzing how House Republicans voted in last week’s Electoral College disputes

Dear Readers: Last night, UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviewed Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) about last week’s chaos on Capitol Hill, the moment he “knew there was a massive disaster that was underway,” possible sanctions for fellow lawmakers who participated in instigating the Capitol insurrection, the Democrats’...

GOP Likely Needs a Big Georgia Turnout Today

Closing thoughts on crucial Senate runoffs; join us for star-studded online forum Wednesday evening

Dear Readers: With a new president about to take office and a sharply divided Congress, what should we expect of the high-stakes political road ahead? Kick off the new year with a “ripped from the headlines” presentation by University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and an all-star guest...

How the States Voted Relative to the Nation

Republicans retain an edge in the Electoral College

Dear Readers: Our new Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar is now available on YouTube and on our YouTube channel, UVACFP. We discuss the latest in the pivotal Georgia Senate runoffs and hear from Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, who is covering those races as closely as anyone. Our...

Senate 2022: An Early Look

Democrats may ultimately have a better shot to win the Senate than the House in two years, although winning either will be challenging

Dear Readers: Our 22nd annual American Democracy Conference is now available on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and at this direct link. It features New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie, CNN commentator Tara Setmayer, and Democratic strategist John Lapp discussing Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential race, disappointing results for Democrats down the ballot,...

Georgia’s Senate Races Both Move to Toss-up

And how we’re thinking about the presidential race with five days to go

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. for our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. In addition to breaking down the election with just days to go, we’ll be joined by Scott Tranter of Decision Desk HQ, a site that will be independently reporting results Tuesday night. Scott will...

Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away

Dear Readers: On today’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes, we’ll go in-depth on the race for the Senate. We’ll also be joined by a special guest: Grace Panetta of Business Insider. The election has already started, with millions of votes already cast: Grace is closely following...

States of Play: Ohio

After Trump maxed out the Buckeye State’s rural areas and small town areas, can Biden max out the suburbs?

Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m. eastern, we'll be devoting our new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series to previewing the debates, which start next week. We’ll go through some of the most famous debate moments and discuss what they tell us about the looming clashes...

The Dreaded 269-269 Scenario: An Update

Republicans Retain House Tiebreaker Edge

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. eastern for the latest edition of our new Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We'll be going over the latest in the race for president and we'll be hearing from a special guest: Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics. You...

The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part One: The Senate

Race for the majority remains up for grabs with less than two months to go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats hope they don’t get a repeat of the 2016 presidential race in the 2020 Senate races. The list of Democratic targets is long, but Republicans still retain an edge in most of the second and third-tier Senate races. -- We provide our latest...

Presidential Expectations and the Race for the House

That the public is less confident in Biden’s chances than the polls could have a down-ballot impact; 14 House rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot. -- Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties. -- We are making...

The National Polls: 2016 vs. 2020 Before the Conventions

Fewer undecideds, more party unity, and an independent shift

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Several national pollsters conducted surveys on the eve of the convention season in both 2016 and 2020. We compared them to see how the race was different from four years ago. -- Compared to four years ago, the parties are more unified; Biden is...

The Senate: Ranking the Top Dozen Best Targets

Establishment Republicans relieved by Kansas primary result; rating changes in Georgia and Iowa

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- National Republicans breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday night, as Rep. Roger Marshall (R, KS-1) beat 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) in the Kansas Senate primary. Practically speaking, the Kansas Senate race went from being a potentially major Democratic offensive target to...

House Rating Changes

Eight shifts, almost all benefiting Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing. -- At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall. -- There...

The Electoral College: The Fringe of the Map Expands

If Trump’s numbers don’t improve, some surprising states could come into play

Editor's Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We'll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half. -- With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight...