The Kinds of Seats that Flip in Midterms

Looking back on past recent waves to assess Republicans’ potential in November

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While increasingly salient issues like abortion could change the political environment, Republicans still appear on track for a strong showing in the U.S. House. -- Recent midterms have hollowed out the presidential party’s holdings of districts where the president either did the same or...

House Rating Changes: 11 Moves, All in Favor of Republicans

Bigger picture coming a bit more into focus with redistricting nearly done

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 11 rating changes in the House this week, all in favor of Republicans. -- The bulk of these changes either move marginally competitive Republican-held seats to the Safe Republican category or move Democratic districts from Likely Democratic to the more competitive...

Trump-District House Democrats Could Become Extinct This November

How redistricting has altered the number of “crossover” districts

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of “crossover” districts -- those won by different parties for president and House -- has generally been declining over time. -- Under the current congressional district lines, there were only 16 crossover districts in 2020, with Republicans winning 9 Biden-won seats and...

Sarah Palin’s Surprising and Possibly Historic Run for the House

How a victory would set her apart from other unsuccessful postwar VP candidates

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin surprised the political world when she announced a run to replace the late Don Young in Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat. -- It’s not unusual for VP losers to subsequently win elected office, although in recent decades...

The Politics of the Nation’s Fastest-Growing Counties

Trends help illuminate how their states have changed over the past decade, particularly in Florida and Texas

Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics later today (Thursday, March 31) for a virtual panel, “Domestic Terrorism: How Vulnerable Are We?” The virtual forum will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/uvacfp-domesticterrorism from 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. eastern. Former United States Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and...

Gas Prices and Presidential Approval

There is some connection historically, but that connection is getting weaker

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Joe Biden and his party are struggling amidst myriad challenges, including high gas prices. Gas prices have spiked in recent weeks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. -- There is some association between higher gas prices and lower presidential approval, although the connection...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 2, 2022

TX-28 to Toss-up; national House vote in midterms; the new OK Senate race

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) Leans Democratic Toss-up Texas primary takeaways We’d say the...

The Dissipating Political Impact of Jan. 6

Trump’s standing -- and that of his party -- does not appear diminished

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A recurring theme during Donald Trump’s presidency was the emergence of seemingly very negative and very damaging stories that ultimately did not appear to do him long-term harm. -- It may be that Jan. 6, when Trump’s unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the 2020...

Six Decades of Regional Change in House Elections

The GOP edge in the South, already large, could grow in 2022

Dear Readers: Last week, the UVA Center for Politics premiered a new student-produced documentary, Common Grounds?, which explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of students from across the political spectrum. The documentary is posted on YouTube, and we hope you will take a look at what we...

New Hampshire: The Fallout from Sununu’s Choice

Gubernatorial race moves to Safe Republican, but GOP still lacks a top challenger to Hassan

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans are still looking for a challenger to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) after Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) surprisingly passed on running against her next year. -- Sununu’s decision to run for reelection means Republicans are heavy favorites to hold onto the New Hampshire governorship....

An Excerpt from The Long Red Thread

The factors that transformed the House from a Democratic preserve to a chamber where Republicans often, but not always, have the edge

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik’s new book, The Long Red Thread: How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in US House Elections, was published by Ohio University Press this week. It is available through IndieBound, Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other booksellers. The Long Red Thread...

Cuomo Out: NY-GOV Remains Likely Democratic in Ratings

One of the most common questions we got around this time last year was whether there was some way for the then-presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, to be replaced as the nominee by… Andrew Cuomo, the three-term Democratic governor of New York who had become an omnipresent figure in...

The States: Recent Candidate Decisions Could Lead to More One-Party Rule

A look at who controls statewide executive offices across the country

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Currently, one party controls all of the statewide elected executive offices in 36 of the 50 states. -- Candidate decisions by down-ballot executive officeholders in Florida and Missouri could make Republican statewide sweeps easier in those states, and Democrats may have opportunities to sweep...

Virginia: McAuliffe’s Chance to Defy History Once Again

Dear Readers: The University of Virginia Center for Politics has released a trailer for its latest documentary, Common Grounds. Produced entirely by student interns at the Center for Politics, the documentary explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of several students of differing political beliefs. A primary goal...