KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Several national pollsters conducted surveys on the eve of the convention season in both 2016 and 2020. We compared them to see how the race was different from four years ago. -- Compared to four years ago, the parties are more unified; Biden is...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- National Republicans breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday night, as Rep. Roger Marshall (R, KS-1) beat 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) in the Kansas Senate primary. Practically speaking, the Kansas Senate race went from being a potentially major Democratic offensive target to...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing. -- At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall. -- There...
Editor's Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We'll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half. -- With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Kanye West tweeted over the weekend that he is running for president. -- He has already missed some state deadlines to file for president as an independent, and other deadlines loom. Presidential filing deadlines loom Rapper Kanye West tweeted the following over the weekend:...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf. -- Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making two Electoral College rating changes this week. -- Florida moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, and Pennsylvania moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. -- This means 268 electoral votes are rated as at least leaning to Joe Biden in our ratings;...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep. Steve King’s (R, IA-4) primary loss makes his Republican-leaning seat easier for the GOP to defend. -- There weren’t many other surprises from Tuesday night. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating IA-4 Open (King, R) Likely Republican...
Dear Readers: Join us today at noon eastern for an online panel on the 2020 Veepstakes. Marquette University’s Julia Azari; the Washington Post’s David Byler; VP expert Joel Goldstein; and the Brennan Center’s Ted Johnson will discuss Joe Biden’s possible choices, the electoral importance of running mates, and more. The...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency. -- Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats netted seven House seats in California in 2018, winning 46 of the megastate’s 53 seats. -- The state’s top-two primary election system can provide clues for the fall. With results almost entirely complete, none of the newly-elected Democrats appear to be in serious...
Dear Readers: Please join Crystal Ball Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman for a livestreamed assessment of the 2020 landscape from noon to 1 p.m. eastern today. The livestream will be available at: https://livestream.com/tavco/sabatoscrystalball and is free. We previously were...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump’s approval numbers have remained steady or have even improved in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. -- That said, the potential threat that the combined health and economic crisis poses to his reelection odds is obvious. -- Trump may find himself in...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As of this writing, days after Iowa, the ultimate outcome there was still unclear. -- Joe Biden’s poor showing probably forecloses the possibility of him winning the nomination quickly. -- The odds of a rare, contested convention probably went up, although there’s still time...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats remain favored to hold the House, but it’s not hard to imagine what the GOP’s path to the majority would be. -- Trump is crucial to that path: A highly-nationalized presidential election that devastates the roster of Democrats in Trump-won and marginal Clinton-won...
