Now be honest. Wasn't Tuesday evening one of the most exciting nights ever in American politics? It had more drama and twists than many presidential general elections. The onrush of results and exit polls in twenty-four states--and let's not forget about American Samoa--was dizzying and exhilarating. Our readers, mainly political...
Now that Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina have voted, at least in one party, one thing is perfectly clear: While the identities of the two major-party nominees are not yet certain, the ranks on both sides have thinned dramatically and the finalists have emerged. For the...
First, we at the Crystal Ball want to get one thing straight with our readers. We are for change. We have worked for change our whole lives. We are truly change agents. And we haven't just talked about change, we've accomplished change--as long as you consider publishing books and articles...
If you're from Iowa, maybe you should just stop reading right now. I don't want to spoil your big day. I have nothing against the Hawkeye State. To the contrary, my visits there have invariably been pleasant, and my dealings with colleagues and journalists based in Iowa have been delightful....
We've been away for a while, traveling America discussing our new book, A More Perfect Constitution. The opportunity to discuss the U.S. Constitution--and what might be done to improve it--has been a special one, and I thank the thousands of people who have attended lectures and come to book-signings and...
Kentucky Governor From the very first posting on the Crystal Ball for the governorship race in Kentucky this year, we predicted that Governor Ernie Fletcher would be very unlikely to be reelected. Absolutely nothing has happened all year long to change our prediction, and we stick with it. We rather...
The votes are in from yesterday's Kentucky gubernatorial primary, and Democrats will have to try hard to lose this race in November. Despite a large field of six candidates, former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear surprised many in the Democratic Party by crossing the 40 percent threshold--he received 40.9 percent in...
Final House Predictions: The 20 Late Breakers AZ-01 - Toss-up - Rep. Rick Renzi (R) will win reelection over Ellen Simon (D). The Crystal Ball knows that Renzi had no problem solidifying his base in the 2004 election, but it wasn't all that long ago he scored a narrow open...
NOTE: Races we consider "Late Breakers"--those in which we have changed our outlook or prediction since Thursday--are denoted by arrows identifying the direction of momentum. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate. Dear loyal readers, What a wild...
Just how Democratic a year is 2006? Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year? We bet it's never happened...
The drumbeat has become the daily background noise in most Beltway political circles, as pervasive as it is percussive. It echoes on today, just as it has for well over a month: in just 40 days and 40 nights, Democrats will wake up to find that they have emerged from...
Watch out, folks! As of Tuesday, party nomination contests are "primarily" over (save for three states), and what a primary season it has been. But the same emotion that has characterized the summer primary season--the most powerful emotion in politics--shows scant signs of ebbing as we enter the fall. There's...
