A Note on Mother Nature and Redistricting

We all know that Louisiana is losing a U.S. House seat this year because of Mother Nature. The terrible destructive power of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 caused the population of New Orleans to decrease by about 140,000 people from the 2000 to 2010 census, which greatly contributed to the state’s...

GRABBING THOSE COATTAILS

Which Senate Seats Might Turn on the Presidential Outcome in 2012?

It is already obvious that control of the Senate will be up for grabs in 2012, with Republicans needing just 3 or 4 seats to take control (depending on whether the GOP wins the presidency and, along with it, the vice president’s tie-breaking vote). How much do Senate races in...

Election Eve Special

SENATE The following are the closest Senate races as of election eve: AK, CO, IL, NV, PA, WA, and WV. The Crystal Ball predicts a net gain for Republicans of 8 seats in the Senate. They must pick up 10 seats to control the majority. GOVERNOR We have decided to...

Tweets of the Week

This week, the Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week takes a special look back at the highlights of the busy week in politics from the perspectives of University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato and Crystal Ball House Race Editor Isaac Wood. @IsaacWood on...

Crystal Ball Ratings Changes

DELAWARE- SENATE: Republicans got just the break they were hoping for in the Delaware Senate race. Republican Rep. Mike Castle will run, challenging the Vice President's son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D). Biden would have defeated any other Republican, but Castle is leading Biden in early polls. The Vice...

HOT HOUSE 2010

The Upcoming Contests for the U.S. House of Representatives

We are barely into the two-year term for the current House of Representatives, but you can be sure that the 2010 contests have already begun. That is especially true for members of the House who are in two-party competitive districts. For them, it is a permanent campaign. Relatively few incumbents...