KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Ross Perot, who died earlier this week, provided something of a template for Donald Trump. He also was the best-performing third-party presidential candidate since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912. -- They are not top-tier races, but there have been noteworthy Senate developments on the outer...
Editor’s note: The Crystal Ball will be away next week for Independence Day. We wish all of you a safe and enjoyable holiday. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Do not necessarily assume that this first debate will dramatically reshape the Democratic primary race. --...
Editor’s Note: This is a special edition of the Crystal Ball. We’ll be back to our usual Thursday publication next week. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Following the conclusion of the Mueller probe, President Trump being forced from office or the ballot because of...
Editor’s Note: This is a special edition of the Crystal Ball. Given the fast-moving developments in our home state over the last several days, we hope it’s not obsolete by the time you read it! We’ll be back with our regularly-scheduled issue next week on Thursday. Saying that anything in...
It took a lot of Krazy Glue, but we think we pieced the Crystal Ball back together, reassembling after 2016 shattered us and just about every other prediction group. As of this writing, early Wednesday afternoon, and with many uncalled House races remaining, the real-time seat projections from both the...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sorry, friends, but you are going to have to actually read this one. -- Our full list of ratings changes is available here. Our best guesses for Tuesday The 2018 midterm has long been a study in contradictory signs. There is, for Republicans,...
Let’s have some speculative fun, if such a thing is possible in this election year. After recent primaries, it’s not a stretch to imagine Donald Trump as the Republican presidential nominee; in fact, the odds at the moment favor this outcome. Now, add a second, more controversial projection: Trump loses...
New Hampshire, as usual, will not be inclined to ratify the result of its early-state rival, Iowa. In open seat races, it’s natural for New Hampshire to zag after Iowa zigs: In the modern era of presidential nominations starting in 1972, there have been 16 contested presidential primaries (seven for...
As the 2016 presidential race officially begins, both party contests are in a place that we, and many others, did not expect them to be. On the Democratic side, frontrunner Hillary Clinton faces a stern challenge from a stronger-than-expected foe, Bernie Sanders. And the Republicans could be on the verge...
Republican presidential polling leader Donald Trump signed a pledge earlier this year agreeing to support the eventual GOP nominee, but that agreement is certainly not legally enforceable. If Trump wants to run as a third-party or independent candidate, there’s nothing stopping him. Trump is aware of this: The weekend before...
For months we’ve argued that Kentucky’s increasing lean toward the Republican Party and the state’s antipathy toward President Barack Obama gave businessman Matt Bevin, the Republican nominee, a generic edge in the open Kentucky gubernatorial race. While Bevin is not a strong candidate, we thought that ultimately those inherent advantages...
Hope is not only a good thing, as Andy Dufresne says in The Shawshank Redemption, but it’s also a small town of about 10,000 people in Southwest Arkansas, about 30 miles northeast of Texarkana. Oh, and it’s also the hometown of one president, Bill Clinton, and another who aspires (Hopes?)...
In light of Hillary Clinton’s presidential announcement on Sunday followed by Marco Rubio’s announcement on Monday, we decided to release the Crystal Ball early this week in order to break down their candidacies in a timely fashion. We’ll be back to our regular Thursday morning schedule next week. -- The...
As we approach the home stretch, 2014 has turned into a tale of two elections. On the one hand, this is a classic sixth-year itch election where the incumbent president’s party is going to suffer losses in both houses of Congress. We’re just arguing about exactly how many. Overall, it...
The race for the Senate is perceptively moving in the Republicans’ direction, but not so dramatically that we’re ready to call the race definitively for them. While we’ve long said the 2014 map and midterm dynamics make a GOP takeover of the Senate a probable outcome, there are just too...
