16 For ’16

Bite-sized observations on a wild election

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking the week off for Thanksgiving next week, but we’ll be back with another edition on Thursday, Dec. 1. Now that we’ve had a week to digest the results of the 2016 election, here are some observations about what happened and what the results...

Our Final 2016 picks

Clinton 322, Trump 216; 50-50 Senate; GOP holds House

After a nearly two-year campaign -- kicked off in December 2014 by Jeb Bush (remember him?) -- we’ve come to it at last. Election Day is less than 24 hours away. And we know why you’re here: You just want the picks. So let’s cut to the chase. Table 1...

Is Clinton slipping?

There are more signs of erosion, but her floodgates appear to be holding

Hillary Clinton has picked an awful time to hit one of the rough patches that has plagued her throughout the campaign. Now with just days to go until Election Day, there’s added uncertainty about the outcome. But while she may not be on the brink of an Electoral College win...

THE COMEY EFFECT

FBI director throws a curveball into the presidential race with a week to go; Clinton slips in ratings but retains clear edge

The purest version of the “October surprise” is a political bombshell that no one sees coming. In the closing days of the craziest campaign in modern history, we have just been witnesses to an October surprise so pure it would qualify for an Ivory Soap commercial (“99 and 44/100 percent...

Clinton adds to her Electoral College edge

Debate probably only reinforces the new status quo

In the broad sweep of U.S. history, very occasionally one of the major parties simply disqualifies itself from the contest to win the White House by nominating an unelectable, non-mainstream candidate. We suspect that there will never be a better example than Donald Trump. The Republican Party chose a deeply...

Clinton’s Electoral College lead regenerates

She’s back over 300 electoral votes after a post-debate polling boon

Programming note: We’ll release a special Crystal Ball Sunday night with a recap of the second presidential debate. As we await the second debate, it’s obvious that Hillary Clinton got a bounce from the first debate and has re-established a clear lead in the presidential race. Her national lead in...

Now We Wait

Let’s see how the debate impacts a tightening election

Dear Readers: We're operating on a slightly modified schedule this week and next. There will be no Crystal Ball on Thursday, Sept. 29, but we'll be back with a special issue on Monday, Oct. 3. -- The Editors The first debate is over! At least everyone survived. If you’re confused...

Do Debates Matter?

Editor’s Note: This article is partially an update of a piece we published in 2012 discussing the impact of presidential debates. To slightly modify Ronald Reagan’s famous rejoinder to Jimmy Carter in their single debate in 1980 (“There you go again”), here we go again -- into the debate season....

THE TRUMP SURGE

Or is it a Clinton Fallback?

And then, everything changed. Well, not everything, but enough to generate the first major revision in our electoral map, and all of it is in Donald Trump’s direction for now. Let us make our view perfectly clear: We still believe that Hillary Clinton is more likely than Trump to win...

GOVERNORS 2016: ARE WE IN FOR A REPEAT OF 2014’S ODD RESULTS?

Democrats and Republicans are showing strength in some unexpected places

They aren’t getting much national attention because of the races for the presidency and Congress, but this year’s gubernatorial contests seem to be just as confounding as the ones from 2014 -- and they could produce some equally head-scratching results. Heading into Election Day 2014, polls in 11 of the...