Editor's Note: The Crystal Ball will be off for the Fourth of July. We'll be back on Thursday, July 12. An already turbulent national political environment was rocked by another major development Wednesday afternoon: Justice Anthony Kennedy, the closest thing there is to a swing vote on the Supreme Court,...
Author: Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley
16 For ’16
Bite-sized observations on a wild election
Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking the week off for Thanksgiving next week, but we’ll be back with another edition on Thursday, Dec. 1. Now that we’ve had a week to digest the results of the 2016 election, here are some observations about what happened and what the results...
Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa
Well, what can we say -- we blew it. We thought the signs pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the White House. We thought that even if she lost Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, her Midwestern “firewall” of states that not only had voted for Barack Obama twice, but hadn’t voted...
Our Final 2016 picks
Clinton 322, Trump 216; 50-50 Senate; GOP holds House
After a nearly two-year campaign -- kicked off in December 2014 by Jeb Bush (remember him?) -- we’ve come to it at last. Election Day is less than 24 hours away. And we know why you’re here: You just want the picks. So let’s cut to the chase. Table 1...
Is Clinton slipping?
There are more signs of erosion, but her floodgates appear to be holding
Hillary Clinton has picked an awful time to hit one of the rough patches that has plagued her throughout the campaign. Now with just days to go until Election Day, there’s added uncertainty about the outcome. But while she may not be on the brink of an Electoral College win...
THE COMEY EFFECT
FBI director throws a curveball into the presidential race with a week to go; Clinton slips in ratings but retains clear edge
The purest version of the “October surprise” is a political bombshell that no one sees coming. In the closing days of the craziest campaign in modern history, we have just been witnesses to an October surprise so pure it would qualify for an Ivory Soap commercial (“99 and 44/100 percent...
THE STATE OF PLAY WITH A DOZEN DAYS TO GO
Ratings changes in races for president, Congress, and governors
Another week has passed in the presidential race and it appears that Donald Trump is not making up much if any ground on Hillary Clinton. Last month, we coined the term “Fortress Obama” to describe an outer and inner ring of defenses Clinton had against Trump as she sought to...
With 19 days to go, Clinton’s lead is bigger than ever
Arizona leans HRC; McMullin rises in the west; dark red states take on lighter hue
The mist is lifting from the map of the United States and the moment of clarity for the 2016 general election campaign has arrived. Yes, there is still uncertainty about some states in the Electoral College. But nearly all of it comes in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012...
Clinton adds to her Electoral College edge
Debate probably only reinforces the new status quo
In the broad sweep of U.S. history, very occasionally one of the major parties simply disqualifies itself from the contest to win the White House by nominating an unelectable, non-mainstream candidate. We suspect that there will never be a better example than Donald Trump. The Republican Party chose a deeply...
Clinton’s Electoral College lead regenerates
She’s back over 300 electoral votes after a post-debate polling boon
Programming note: We’ll release a special Crystal Ball Sunday night with a recap of the second presidential debate. As we await the second debate, it’s obvious that Hillary Clinton got a bounce from the first debate and has re-established a clear lead in the presidential race. Her national lead in...
Now We Wait
Let’s see how the debate impacts a tightening election
Dear Readers: We're operating on a slightly modified schedule this week and next. There will be no Crystal Ball on Thursday, Sept. 29, but we'll be back with a special issue on Monday, Oct. 3. -- The Editors The first debate is over! At least everyone survived. If you’re confused...
Do Debates Matter?
Editor’s Note: This article is partially an update of a piece we published in 2012 discussing the impact of presidential debates. To slightly modify Ronald Reagan’s famous rejoinder to Jimmy Carter in their single debate in 1980 (“There you go again”), here we go again -- into the debate season....
THE TRUMP SURGE
Or is it a Clinton Fallback?
And then, everything changed. Well, not everything, but enough to generate the first major revision in our electoral map, and all of it is in Donald Trump’s direction for now. Let us make our view perfectly clear: We still believe that Hillary Clinton is more likely than Trump to win...
THE FUNDAMENTALS: Where Are We in This Strange Race for President?
And can Trump breach Fortress Obama?
Every presidential election is different, but nobody’s going to tell us that this one isn’t notably different from any other in the modern period. It’s not just that the two major-party candidates are so disliked and unpopular with much of the public. While Donald Trump’s numbers are no better and...
GOVERNORS 2016: ARE WE IN FOR A REPEAT OF 2014’S ODD RESULTS?
Democrats and Republicans are showing strength in some unexpected places
They aren’t getting much national attention because of the races for the presidency and Congress, but this year’s gubernatorial contests seem to be just as confounding as the ones from 2014 -- and they could produce some equally head-scratching results. Heading into Election Day 2014, polls in 11 of the...