SENATE 2016: FLIP FLOP

As we head into Labor Day, Democrats are slight favorites to win a slim Senate majority

It seems like only yesterday when the Republicans took over the U.S. Senate. Actually, nearly two years have passed since that big moment, when the GOP gained nine seats and took a 54-46 majority (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats) after eight years of Democratic control. But this...

CLINTON RISES TO 348 ELECTORAL VOTES, TRUMP DROPS TO 190

Clinton now above 270 Safe or Likely Democratic electoral votes for the first time

New Hampshire may just have four electoral votes, but it’s important. If you doubt it, just ask any Granite State citizens, and they’ll tell you about their first-in-the-nation primary. Even that quartet of electoral votes can matter; in 2000, if Al Gore had just won them (and without Ralph Nader...

HURRY UP AND WAIT

After the conventions, the presidential race heads into the dog days

As the nation’s political class, reporters, and analysts recover from the two-week convention slog -- we know, the nation feels so sorry for us -- the presidential race enters something of a lull. Labor Day, the traditional kick-off to the general election sprint, is still a month away, and August...

Clinton-Kaine: A Not-So Surprising Ticket

Picking VA senator makes the Old Dominion bluer; plus, wrapping up the RNC

(CLEVELAND) -- If someone had told us at the start of this election cycle that the Democratic presidential nominee would be Hillary Clinton, and that she would choose Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate, we would have said that would be… very, very plausible. Now that Clinton...

Not So Hot in Cleveland

Assessing RNC 2016 at the halfway point

(CLEVELAND) -- With two nights down at the Republican National Convention and two nights to go, here are five quick observations on Trump TV: An uneven presentation Some conventions resemble a work of art or a play with a polished script. Others are more like half-finished modern art or a...

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE: MAP NO. 2

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

Some of our readers may recall that the Crystal Ball published its first 2016 Electoral College map at the end of March. It was somewhat controversial -- at least judging by many of the reactions we received. As you see below, at that time we projected Hillary Clinton at 347...

The Veepstakes, Part Two: Trump’s Temptation

A candidate who prefers flash might be better off playing it safe

This is the second of a two-part series analyzing the Democratic and Republican vice presidential possibilities. This week, we examine presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s considerations and options. Last week, we looked at Hillary Clinton’s choices on the Democratic side. -- The Editors Heading into the 2014 National Football League...

The Veepstakes, Part One: Clinton’s Choices

Senate balance of power could play a role

This is the first of a two-part series analyzing the Democratic and Republican vice presidential possibilities. This week, we’ll look at likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s choices, and then we’ll assess presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s options next week. -- The Editors “First, do no harm” The Hippocratic Oath is...