KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In six states this November, voters will be asked to weigh in on statewide ballot measures. -- Four states contributed to our list of key measures this year: Colorado, Ohio, Maine, and Texas. More limited measures are on the ballot in Louisiana and New...
Author: Louis Jacobson
The Republicans’ ‘Excess Seat’ Edge in State Legislatures
Republicans punch above their weight compared to presidential results in more places than Democrats
Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we talk with the author of today’s Crystal Ball piece -- Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson -- about his article today on “excess seats” in state legislatures as well as his journalism career with PolitiFact, House Republicans’ recently-announced impeachment...
Where Both Parties Overperform in the House, 2023 Edition
GOP edge in “excess seats” compared to 2020 presidential results expands following post-2020 redistricting, 2022 election
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two years ago, we began looking at the states that produced “excess” House seats for one party or the other -- states for which the partisan ratio in House seats exceeds what would be predicted by the state’s presidential vote in 2020. -- Back...
Almanac of American Politics Excerpt: The House Districts of Brooklyn and Queens
Dear Readers: For more than five decades, the Almanac of American Politics has set the standard for political reference books. This month, the Almanac is publishing its 2024 edition, with some 2,200 pages offering fully updated chapters on all 435 House members and their districts, all 100 senators, all 50...
The 2023 and 2024 Attorney General and Secretary of State Races
Amidst several safe-state races with key primaries, competitive contests in North Carolina and Pennsylvania loom
Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, the Crystal Ball’s J. Miles Coleman, Kyle Kondik, and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the results from Tuesday night’s Virginia state legislative primaries and look ahead to the closely-contested battle for control of both chambers coming up this fall....
How the Rookie Governors are Performing So Far
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Governors seem to be strikingly popular these days, especially compared to national political figures and institutions such as Congress and the Supreme Court. -- This tendency appears to be holding for the nine rookie governors who took office for the first time after last...
What Happened in the States
Democrats picked up governorships, state legislative chambers; Republican state court victories could have redistricting implications
Dear Readers: Join us at noon eastern today for a Twitter Spaces featuring Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of the Crystal Ball and our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley. They will be discussing the continuing takeaways from the 2022 election, Donald Trump’s presidential announcement, the looming Georgia...
Secretary of State and Attorney General: What to Watch for Next Week in Key Statewide Contests
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. This article represents his third and final effort to handicap the competitive contests for secretary of state and attorneys general across the country. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE...
The (Updated) Battle for the Statehouses
Chambers in key swing states like Michigan and Nevada get more competitive
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is updating his assessment of the race for state legislative control. He has also analyzed contests for attorney general, secretary of state, state supreme court, and statewide ballot issues....
2022’s Ballot Measures
States are set to vote on a range of measures dealing with abortion, elections, marijuana, and more
Dear Readers: Join the Center for Politics next Tuesday, Oct. 18, for “Hacking Our Elections.” Center for Politics Scholar and leading election security expert Chris Krebs heads up this urgent and timely panel discussion on how the same threats that created Jan. 6 are still with us today. Joining Chris...
The Attorneys General: A Dozen Races Dot the Competitive Landscape
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is doing his second assessment of this year’s attorney general races. He has also analyzed secretary of state, state legislative, and state supreme court races. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS...
Secretary of State Races: Election Deniers Carry GOP Banner in Several Key States
Several top battlegrounds feature competitive races in these newly-prominent races
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is doing his second assessment of this year’s secretary of state races, which have taken on added importance in the aftermath of the 2020 election. He has also analyzed attorney general,...
High Courts, High Stakes
2022’s top state supreme court races
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general, secretary of state, and state legislative races, he is analyzing state supreme courts this week. While there are judicial elections across the country,...
Governors: Escaping Public’s Wrath Even as So Many Others Draw Ire
State chief executives continue to get high marks from voters even as party leaders, Congress do not
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virtually every measurement of public opinion shows that Americans are in a foul mood about their political leaders and institutions. But one group seems to have escaped this wrath: governors. -- State-level job approval polls from Morning Consult show that 92% of governors are...
The Battle for State Legislatures
Looking for competition in sorted statehouses
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general and secretary of state races, he is now assessing the battles for state legislatures this year. The Republicans have built a robust edge...