The Attorneys General: A Dozen Races Dot the Competitive Landscape

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is doing his second assessment of this year’s attorney general races. He has also analyzed secretary of state, state legislative, and state supreme court races. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS...

Secretary of State Races: Election Deniers Carry GOP Banner in Several Key States

Several top battlegrounds feature competitive races in these newly-prominent races

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is doing his second assessment of this year’s secretary of state races, which have taken on added importance in the aftermath of the 2020 election. He has also analyzed attorney general,...

High Courts, High Stakes

2022’s top state supreme court races

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general, secretary of state, and state legislative races, he is analyzing state supreme courts this week. While there are judicial elections across the country,...

Governors: Escaping Public’s Wrath Even as So Many Others Draw Ire

State chief executives continue to get high marks from voters even as party leaders, Congress do not

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virtually every measurement of public opinion shows that Americans are in a foul mood about their political leaders and institutions. But one group seems to have escaped this wrath: governors. -- State-level job approval polls from Morning Consult show that 92% of governors are...

The Battle for State Legislatures

Looking for competition in sorted statehouses

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general and secretary of state races, he is now assessing the battles for state legislatures this year. The Republicans have built a robust edge...

Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World

Watch these states in the event of a landmark Supreme Court decision later this year

Dear Readers: In light of a recent Politico article that features a leaked majority draft opinion from Justice Samuel Alito that would overturn the landmark Roe vs. Wade decision, we are re-running a March article from Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Lou Jacobson. We have made some minor updates to the article to account for a few new developments. In...

How Minority Parties (Might) Compete in One-Party States

Playing in other party’s primary or backing an independent candidate are two possible options

Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event later today (Thursday, April 28) with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the...

The Challenges of Being Buffalo in Today’s New York State

Gov. Hochul’s home has long felt a disconnect with the rest of the state

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Buffalo, and the Western New York region that surrounds it, is further from its state’s population and political centers than almost any major city in the continental U.S. This has made it challenging for political leaders in the region to keep their political clout....

Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World

Watch these states in the event of a landmark Supreme Court decision later this year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade later this year, it could hypothetically energize Democratic voters in the 2022 midterms. But it’s unclear whether abortion will become a big enough motivator for Democrats to overcome the historical pattern of unfavorable midterms for the...

The Battles for Attorney General

Surveying this year’s 30 contests across the country, including many in key swing states

Dear Readers: Last month, we announced that Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson would be analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After looking at secretary of state races, Lou is now turning his attention to attorneys general, positions that often have a fair amount of power...

Next Week’s Biggest Statewide Ballot Issues

Five states feature notable issues, with possible redistricting changes in New York leading the list

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Voters in several states will be deciding significant statewide ballot issues next week. -- The most notable issues deal with topics such as gaming, energy, taxes, and more. But the one with the most national import is in New York, where voters could give...

How Democrats Are Losing the War for Counties

Tracking 20 years of county-level presidential election changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats, particularly at the presidential level, are maintaining or increasing their electoral strength in populated areas, but Republicans are strengthening their hold on more rural areas. -- This tradeoff has led to a decline in the number of counties won by Democratic candidates since...