KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virtually every measurement of public opinion shows that Americans are in a foul mood about their political leaders and institutions. But one group seems to have escaped this wrath: governors. -- State-level job approval polls from Morning Consult show that 92% of governors are...
Author: Louis Jacobson
The Battle for State Legislatures
Looking for competition in sorted statehouses
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general and secretary of state races, he is now assessing the battles for state legislatures this year. The Republicans have built a robust edge...
Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World
Watch these states in the event of a landmark Supreme Court decision later this year
Dear Readers: In light of a recent Politico article that features a leaked majority draft opinion from Justice Samuel Alito that would overturn the landmark Roe vs. Wade decision, we are re-running a March article from Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Lou Jacobson. We have made some minor updates to the article to account for a few new developments. In...
How Minority Parties (Might) Compete in One-Party States
Playing in other party’s primary or backing an independent candidate are two possible options
Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event later today (Thursday, April 28) with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the...
The Challenges of Being Buffalo in Today’s New York State
Gov. Hochul’s home has long felt a disconnect with the rest of the state
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Buffalo, and the Western New York region that surrounds it, is further from its state’s population and political centers than almost any major city in the continental U.S. This has made it challenging for political leaders in the region to keep their political clout....
Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World
Watch these states in the event of a landmark Supreme Court decision later this year
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade later this year, it could hypothetically energize Democratic voters in the 2022 midterms. But it’s unclear whether abortion will become a big enough motivator for Democrats to overcome the historical pattern of unfavorable midterms for the...
Ranking the States Demographically, from Most Republican-Friendly to Most Democratic-Friendly
Dear Readers: Join us Tuesday, Feb. 15 as Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviews ABC News’ Jonathan Karl about his new book, Betrayal: The Final Act of the Trump Show. The program will run from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. eastern time, and you can watch live at...
The Challenges of Electing Governors and Lieutenant Governors Separately
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In almost half the states, governors and lieutenant governors are either nominated separately, or else the official who is next in the line of succession is elected separately. -- This makes it reasonably common for the governor and lieutenant governor to come from separate...
The Battles for Attorney General
Surveying this year’s 30 contests across the country, including many in key swing states
Dear Readers: Last month, we announced that Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson would be analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After looking at secretary of state races, Lou is now turning his attention to attorneys general, positions that often have a fair amount of power...
Secretary of State Races: More Important Than Ever in 2022, and More Complicated, Too
Dear Readers: We’re delighted to announce that Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson will be taking on an expanded role at the Crystal Ball this cycle. He’ll be regularly analyzing several categories of state-level races for the Crystal Ball: the battles for control of state legislatures and state attorneys general offices, as...
Next Week’s Biggest Statewide Ballot Issues
Five states feature notable issues, with possible redistricting changes in New York leading the list
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Voters in several states will be deciding significant statewide ballot issues next week. -- The most notable issues deal with topics such as gaming, energy, taxes, and more. But the one with the most national import is in New York, where voters could give...
How Democrats Are Losing the War for Counties
Tracking 20 years of county-level presidential election changes
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats, particularly at the presidential level, are maintaining or increasing their electoral strength in populated areas, but Republicans are strengthening their hold on more rural areas. -- This tradeoff has led to a decline in the number of counties won by Democratic candidates since...
Where Both Parties Overperform in the House
Comparing how many seats they have versus how many the 2020 presidential results would have suggested
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we head into a once-a-decade redistricting cycle, we analyzed which states have one party that is currently overperforming in its House delegation compared to that party’s share of the 2020 presidential vote. -- Overall, the GOP has notched notable overperformances in 19 medium-to-large-sized...
Like His Predecessors, Trump Suffered Down-Ballot Losses — But the Declines Were Comparatively Modest
Biden now confronts the presidential party down-ballot jinx, but his predecessor's shadow might aid his cause
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Like every post-World War II president, Donald Trump witnessed a fall-off in his party’s numbers of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative seats during his presidency. That said, compared to recent presidents, the erosion on Trump’s watch was more modest than it...
How the Senate’s Long-Term Equilibrium Could Shape Democratic Decisions on the Filibuster
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A majority of states are now either solidly Republican or solidly Democratic on the presidential level, and the party a state prefers for president increasingly has a big edge in winning the state’s two Senate seats. Given these patterns, it’s possible to game out...