KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In the past decade, four governors faced either a criminal case or sexual misconduct allegations while in office. That may sound like a lot, but it’s actually quite low by recent historical standards. -- Gubernatorial bad behavior peaked between 2003 and 2009, an era...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 2020 has been a banner year for ranked-choice voting. -- Several Democratic primary and caucus contests used the system, which asks voters to rank their choice and forces winners to achieve majority support, albeit through votes from those who did not pick them first...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In a presidential election year, the senatorial appointment powers of governors become especially important, as sitting U.S. senators become possible choices for vice president or the Cabinet of an incoming president. -- Currently, in 38 states, there is no chance that the gubernatorial appointment...
Dear Readers: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. Below, Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson investigates how both parties might navigate having to hold their nominating conventions virtually, which may be more of a possibility for Democrats only because their convention is scheduled earlier in...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- For talented young political prospects who belong to the minority party in states dominated by one party, the path to statewide advancement is rocky. -- In 34 of the 50 states, a single party controls all of the statewide elected offices. -- Only four...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After just three years in the White House, Donald Trump is seeing a significant erosion of down-ballot seats held by his party. -- This erosion puts Trump in good company -- at least since World War II, presidents typically experience at least some erosion...
KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) is facing a strong primary challenge from Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D, MA-4) in 2020. While challenges to entrenched incumbent senators aren’t an everyday occurrence, the Markey-Kennedy race is especially unusual in recent Senate history -- Most senators who attract...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Even as public approval of President Trump and Congress remain in the basement, 50-state opinion polling shows that Americans as a whole are pretty enamored of their governors. -- In fact, 47 of the nation’s 50 governors are outperforming Trump in their states, and...
Dear Readers: We’re pleased this week to welcome Louis Jacobson to the Crystal Ball team. Jacobson, a veteran political journalist and analyst, is joining the Crystal Ball as a Senior Columnist and will be writing monthly columns for us on state-level politics. In his debut column, Jacobson takes a look...
