KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite a requirement that congressional districts have roughly identical populations within states, the number of raw votes cast in each district can vary widely, both within a state and across the country. -- In 2022, there was a nearly 300,000-vote difference between the lowest-turnout...
Author: Rhodes Cook
The Republican Advance in the South — and Other Party Registration Trends
How state-level registration has changed in recent years
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Party registration can be a lagging indicator of political change, but recent changes in some states are bringing registration more in line with actual voting. -- Republicans have taken the voter registration edge in states such as Florida and West Virginia somewhat recently, and...
The “Big Sort” Continues, with Trump as a Driving Force
Number of blowout counties spiked in 2016, endured in 2020
Dear Readers: UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato recently interviewed Jonathan Karl of ABC News and Rep. Ro Khanna (D, CA-17) about, respectively, their new books Betrayal: The Final Act of the Trump Show and Dignity in a Digital Age: Making Tech Work for All of Us. If...
States of Play: Pennsylvania
Dear Readers: As we’ve stressed throughout this election season, the president isn’t picked by national polling or the popular vote, but rather by the individual states -- successful presidential nominees must cobble together a coalition of at least 270 electoral votes. With that in mind, we’re launching a series called...
Take Two: Can Sanders Broaden His Base?
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Unlike in 2016, Bernie Sanders has a real chance to win the Democratic presidential nomination. -- However, he likely will have to broaden his base of support to do so. -- Namely, better showings in big urban and suburban areas are important, particularly as...
Registering By Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead
KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more...
Donald Trump’s Short Congressional Coattails
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Although Donald Trump is remaking the Republican Party in his image, he had among the shortest coattails of any presidential winner going back to Dwight Eisenhower. In 2016, Trump ran ahead of just 24 of 241 Republican House winners and only five of 22...
The 2016 Presidential Vote: A Look Down in the Weeds
If Hillary Clinton had won the presidency -- and she took the popular vote by nearly 3 million -- the narrative of the 2016 election would be far different. Rather than the storyline being Donald’s Trump triumph in the heartland, with its beleaguered blue-collar workers, the emphasis now would be...
AN HISTORICAL RARITY: A FOUR-PARTY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
There is no doubt that this is a high stakes election. It is not Tweedledum and Tweedledee, as former Alabama Gov. George Wallace famously said of the major parties when he ran as a third-party candidate nearly a half century ago. Almost everyone nowadays agrees that a Donald Trump presidency...
High Primary Turnouts: Any Clues for the Fall?
Editor’s note: This is the first of two editions of the Crystal Ball this week. While we typically only publish once a week, this is an extraordinary political year and we hope to provide additional commentary and analysis throughout the rest of the cycle as warranted. In the piece below,...
Are Voters Drifting Away?
For first time in 16 years, back-to-back cycles saw drops in raw turnout
For the first decade after Sept. 11, national elections showed a steady rise in voter turnout. The number of ballots cast in presidential elections jumped from 105 million in 2000 to a record 131 million in 2008, an increase of 25% in just eight years. Similarly, the midterm congressional turnout...
IOWA SURVIVES
While potential presidential candidates are just beginning to jockey for pole position for 2016, there has already been one clear winner: the state of Iowa. Its precinct caucuses have retained the leadoff spot in the next nominating cycle in spite of one of the most embarrassing vote counts in modern...
BARACK OBAMA AND BILL CLINTON: COMPLEMENTARY STRENGTHS
The Democrats can use all the assets they can find as they approach a midterm election that grows increasingly challenging. The polls are daunting. The electoral map for both the Senate and House is unfavorable. And history is rarely kind to the president’s party in midterm voting. But the Democrats...
CHRIS CHRISTIE’S MIDTERM MARKER
Probably no election this year has been more important to the presidential politics of 2016 than Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s landslide 60% reelection victory in Democratic-leaning New Jersey. It cemented his place in the front ranks of Republican presidential contenders by demonstrating his vote-getting appeal to constituencies that the GOP...
DEMOCRATS AND THE WHITE HOUSE: FROM LOSING TO WINNING
Accurately or not, Barack Obama has been compared to a number of famous politicians: FDR, JFK, Ronald Reagan, even Jimmy Carter. But no one as yet has compared him to Michael Dukakis. Yet as a reference point, Dukakis might be as good as anyone. A look at his vote-getting performance...