KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In 2020, Donald Trump would have needed to flip 37 additional Electoral College votes to reach 269, thereby winning an effective majority in the Electoral College, thanks to a likely Republican advantage if the Electoral College produces a tied outcome. -- The 2024 Electoral...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: -- Given that Democrats only hold a single-digit majority in the House of Representatives, the 2022 midterms will be extremely competitive. -- The generic ballot is the best tool for forecasting the House popular vote, and is especially useful in cycles without presidential races atop...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Incumbent senators almost never lose reelection in presidential years when their party’s presidential candidate wins their state. -- Democrats need to net four seats to win an outright majority in the Senate and three seats to tie it. In the case of a Senate...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In 2016, Hillary Clinton would have needed to flip 38 additional Electoral College votes to reach 270[1], thereby winning a majority in the Electoral College. -- Using 2016 presidential election results, we can map out the different paths that Clinton had to winning 270...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A presidential campaign strategy narrowly focused on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan might work for the Electoral College but could hurt a candidate’s party in down-ballot Senate and House races. -- Senate and House battlegrounds are scattered across the Rust Belt and Sun Belt, which...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Single-member districts, natural sorting, and gerrymandering are the origins of bias in the House of Representatives. -- One form of bias consistently helps House Republicans, vindicating liberal concerns of a structural imbalance. Another form of bias reliably benefits the party that wins control of...
