NOT YOUR FATHER’S DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS

The last two Democratic presidents have a lot in common. Like Bill Clinton before him, Barack Obama is a gifted 40-something politician, a strong orator with a high likeability quotient, and a successful candidate who captured the White House by running on a platform offering big change. And like Clinton,...

THE LAST LAST WORD

The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election

ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota. If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote,...

THE LAST WORD–ALMOST

The Crystal Ball's Next-to-Last Projections for the 2008 Election

These are our 2008 election projections as of Thursday, October 30. We will make final adjustments and tweaks on Monday afternoon, November 3, and post them to the website. At that point, we will attempt to call the few remaining toss-ups. We wish everyone the best possible Election Day, with...

HOUSE RACE UPDATE

Democratic Domination Continues

Every week it seems to get worse for House Republicans. As we will demonstrate below, we have expanded the number of possible to likely net gains for Democrats from our previous 15 to 20 to a new and rather astounding 22 to 27 seats. The past week has been a...

DEMOCRATS ROLL IN U.S. HOUSE RACES

Party Now Certain to Add Significant Number to Current Majority

Party Now Certain to Add Significant Number to Current Majority

The good news just keeps on coming for Democrats. As we discussed last week, presidential nominee Barack Obama is the clear favorite to win a substantial victory in the race for the White House (see updated Electoral College map, HERE). Democratic Senate candidates are doing so well that the party...

CONGRESSIONAL COMBAT, CONTINUED

2008 contests for the U.S. House - June update

Last December, when we first sketched out the upcoming House elections, we suggested that Democrats were likely to have a good year. Nothing has changed our forecast in the six months since, and if anything, we now see November 2008 as probably the best year Democrats have had in many...

CONGRESSIONAL COMBAT

Contests for the U.S. House 2008

Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often-years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other. Since 1970 we have had five of those years:...

THE SCANDAL-TINGED SIX:

Whose campaigns are dead on arrival and who will survive to run again?

Last week the Crystal Ball examined fifteen freshman Representatives (fourteen Democrats and one Republican) who we consider to be endangered in November 2008. As promised, now we turn to part two of our list of the imperiled: the "Scandal-tinged Six." Here, the partisan tables are turned, as five Republicans and...

THE FRESHMAN FIFTEEN

Which House Members Will Carry their Weight in '08?

This month, the Crystal Ball has compiled an endangered species list of sorts: members of the House of Representatives who have their work cut out for them if they seek political survival beyond 2008. At this point, we can sort the vulnerable into two stacks: the "Freshman Fifteen" and the...

OF ASHES AND SASHES

Vacancy Signs Point to a Very "Special" Summer

Just as Ben Franklin assured us of two certainties in life, let the Crystal Ball assure you of two certainties in congressional special elections this year: deaths and taxpayer-funded University posts will be the cause (granted, you won't hear us complaining too much about the latter). We'll explain in a...

ELECTORAL TRENDS WARM SUNBELT, FREEZE FROSTBELT

Ah, fun with numbers. There's nothing like it in the field of politics. Usually, we manipulate the numbers of public opinion polls, but this week we'll crunch some population data instead. Last week the Crystal Ball's David Wasserman went further than anyone has in projecting out the states' estimated gains...

WHEN THE LEVEE BREAKS

Looking at the Big Picture in the House

Because one Crystal Ball analysis piece (We Were Merely Freshmen?) laced with references to popular music deserves another, we decided to take our readers back in time this week and tip our hat to an old blues song Led Zeppelin revived in 1971. The first lines should be familiar to...

WE WERE MERELY FRESHMEN?

GOP Hunts the House for One-Term Wonders in 2008

As the Crystal Ball gazes into the future of Congress's lower chamber beyond 2008, what should it consider? Should we read anything into the moderate success of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's early leadership? No, the elections are too far away for it to really matter. Forgive us as we turn our...